State: Alabama

Ideology: Minarchist Republican

Voting: straight GOP. All my family members who vote are also republican.

Was invited by @fhtagn

Ford’s story seems to be crumbling

Horrendous. He will lose by about 15 points @Cuckiller

FL-27 is a tossup and FL-26 is tilt R

We’re so lucky to have gotten Salazar. Probably one of the best recruits this cycle.

@reagent True. The fact that she is managing to lead like she is a huge testament to that.
I’ve been rather confident of us holding CA-39 since she was nominated.

OH is safe D, WV is likely

The loss of any one republican is a loss because it gives the Dems one more vote. The worst republican is still much better than the best Democrat most of the time

You will be if he loses by a couple votes and his race decides control of the house. Every single incumbent matters.

Curbelo is a fine congressman most of the time, when you take it to mind what the sheer partisanship of his district will allow for

I would rather have Republican establishmentarian than socialism, wouldn’t you?

No they aren’t, there’s a clear difference. They are far from equivalent

@[Lex] Yes. I hate both, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a clear favorite week it comes to picking which one I would rather have

Honestly I don’t see a way in which we can retain the house. It just isn’t going to happen. The Dems already are already halfway there by means of auto gains like Comstock, LoBiondo, Blum, Paulsen, and Coffman’s districts

It’s borderline Safe D

@[Lex] http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/GK5eD1K

This is a little optimistic

The wheels could really come off in Florida

And NC could be a real dummymander

Without tossup a

@Julien Blanc I don’t want that to happen, and it troubles me every day. It’s going to be horrible.
I just don’t lie to myself and give myself false hope.
It will probably be even worse than I think it’s going to be.

Incumbents that poll below 50% within the MOE during wave years generally lose.

And we have lots of those...

There will be a few bright spots come November but ultimately the outcome is pretty much laid in stone. The writing is all over the wall.

We haven’t lead the GCB in any meaningful way in a very long time, and Trump’s approvals according to the vast majority of polls are really bad.

I think it’s about 5

@[Lex] I could be a lot worse. Many of the Dems at US Election Atlas un ironically think that the Dems will pick up 80+ seats. Some think that Mo Brooks, Steve King, and Katie Arrington will lose

I have the most “optimistic” house rating amongst all of them probably

@[Lex] yes. RCV is going to get Poliquin.

And Golden is a fairly strong candidate. It’s Tilt D

Which is funny because the only thing Dems offer them in return for their votes is taxing more of their money and shaming them for “whites privilege” BS

The extreme shifts in WCE areas from 2012 and current polling indicates that it is pretty darn near apocalyptic for the GOP

Blum will lose by almost 20 points

The WWC swings towards the Dems in Iowa are ungodly. It is back to voting like it’s 2008

I’m pretty sure that Kim Reynolds will lose. Steve Kong might be the only republican member of the delegation to survive

Yes

But it’s tilt R at best and could easily fall

Gottheimer is not losing in this environment, so NJ-05 is Likely D.
His seat may be in reach in 2020 though. @WildRooHuntingTutorials

@fhtagn Wexton talks like Siri. Robotic.
Too bad Babs is going to lose big.

Gottheimer is safe, there’s no reason for him to lose. Every other republican district in NJ except Chris Smith is going down, why would you expect Gottheimer to lose?

His challenger has hardly raised anything compared to him

His district will vote blue

No

Maybe in 2020

It would be foolish to burn money there

It is when we have dozens of districts that need to be protected and 3 or 4 better pickup opportunities

No I don’t, it’s just plainly clear that NJ is getting bluer, and that a moderate inoffensive Democrat isn’t going to be knocked off in a democratic wave year in a suburban district that is trending democratic

The blue wave is a fact. Better to accept it than cover your ears and scream at reality.
We have to strategically work around it

And pick and choose the best districts to fight for

Stop the autistic screeching.
I don’t want to “impeach drumpf” I’m just not denying reality

The reality is, that we’re dealing with a blue wave. Every sign indicates that. Every poll, every GCB, trump approval, and the fundamentals of being in a midterm under an unpopular president

We will lose lots of seats

There’s like a 2% chance it flips. We have a bad candidate with bad fundraising running against a moderate who is an ok fit for the district, in a dem wave year that is hitting suburbia hard. I’m not giving up, just saying we need to be strategic in which races we target. This one is not a hill to die on.

Land doesn’t vote. It doesn’t matter hoe much or the geographical area is rural, because the vast majority of its voters are not rural voters

Lol, knowing the facts is “blue pilling?”
Acknowledging reality is “blue pilling?”

@Rhodesiaboo then you must not have payed any attention at all in 2016

The congressional polls were nothing like they are now

Most of them

@[Lex] 19

Of course it’s ok

Lol, that’s impossible.

The only dem incumbents who are in any danger are Heitkamp, McCaskill, Nelson, Tester, and Donnelly.

And we’ll probably only flip 2 of those, 3 if we’re lucky.

No it doesn’t

We’re going to lose all but one New Jersey house seat

And Hugin doesn’t have a chance

@Julien Blanc No, actually. I’m just influenced by the facts. Thinking that we can pick off a dem incumbent in a solid blue state in a blue wave year was always a fantasy.
I wish it weren’t true, but that’s just how it is.

I’m not defeatist. I think we can increase our senate majority, we just have to play our cards right and not waste time and money on safe blue seats.

That’s true. There are already almost a dozen seats that are as good as gone, and dozens more where the dem is favored

Yes, I can list them if you’d like

Lol, you want him to shut down the government right before the midterms?
Do you have any idea how much damage that could do?

We’re already in a horrible position as it is.
Do that and you might as well just hand Pelosi the speaker’s gavel right now.

I would rather lose 30 house seats than 60, wouldn’t you?

I don’t want to piss away any hope of regaining the house in 2020 over a freaking wall

No it won’t. The only people who care about the wall are already voting.

And can you imagine the kind of narrative the media can spin about Trump shutting down the government? They’d have a field day.

Not that a wall will do is much good in the long run. It’s symbolic.

It can be a deterrent, but only if you back it up with extensive policing and enforce the immigration laws brutally.
Our govt will never grown the backbone to go after illegals and deport them as they should.

Our enthusiasm is already very high. It’s simply that the democrats’ enthusiasm is insanely off the charts

I don’t see any legitimacy behind the GOP, but you have to back the lesser of two evils, especially when the Democratic Party is as evil and demented as it is.

The wall is not THAT important. I agree that it ought to be built, but you are putting to much emphasis on at importance

No, it just isn’t. Lowering taxes, slashing regulations, neutering government agencies, winning elections, confirming conservative judges, enforcing immigration laws, etc are all much more important

I literally said immigration law

The wall is just one minuscule aspect of it, yet you act that if we throw down the bricks everything will magically be saved

You don’t care about The State extorting your income to line its pockets and subsidize millions of welfare leeches?

I DO. For the record, I wish we could enact a moratorium on all immigration. I realize that doing so would be political suicide, however

We must curb immigration from third world hellholes, but building some wall isn’t going to fix that when we have an open door allowing them in

What a dumb cornerstone

Immigration is an extremely significant issue, but a building project is not something that will make or break our country.
We have a hell of a lot more problems

Hell, we’re burning billions of dollars yearly to finance every third world hell hole under the sun

A wall won’t do that. It isn’t like thousands of illegal immigrants don’t climb over or dig under existing fencing and walls yearly

We need to actually deport everyone. Every last illegal, none of them should stay. I

They can be helpful if they joined with other effective methods such as tight patrolling of the border, but throwing up a wall isn’t going to just fix our immigration issues magically

Half of illegal immigrants never even crossed the border, they’re visa overstays

No it won’t. Taxes effect the average American a thousand times more than Mexicans walking across the border a thousand miles away.

Mexicans are not making Texas D. It’s college educated white suburban cucks

That’s where most of the swing towards the Dems is taking place

Pete Sessions and Culberson, R’s in suburban district, were safe just 4 years ago. Now, their white constituents have shifted so far to the left that they will both probably lose

He has about a 40% of winning

So he isn’t done for, but odds are he will lose