Our best hope in NM is for Johnson to target and go after Democrat voters.

@Rhodesiaboo LOL

@Yellowhammer You're grossly underestimating the GOP right now.

and overestimating Democrats' popularity

The GOP even has a chance in New Jersey right now.

No it doesn’t

We’re going to lose all but one New Jersey house seat

And Hugin doesn’t have a chance

@Yellowhammer I dunno you might be too influenced by the echo chamber at US Election Atlas

@Julien Blanc No, actually. I’m just influenced by the facts. Thinking that we can pick off a dem incumbent in a solid blue state in a blue wave year was always a fantasy.
I wish it weren’t true, but that’s just how it is.

stop it with the defeatism

there's looking at our situation realistically and then there's whiny despair

I’m not defeatist. I think we can increase our senate majority, we just have to play our cards right and not waste time and money on safe blue seats.

these aren't safe blue seats though

we're forfeiting more than we have to if you believe EVERYTHING except one seat in NJ is definitely gone

chin up, alright?

@Yellowhammer you said the GOP only has a 5% chance of keeping the House though

every pessimist claims they're a realist

That’s true. There are already almost a dozen seats that are as good as gone, and dozens more where the dem is favored

> dozens more where the dem is favored

nah

Yes, I can list them if you’d like

We've got a 50% chance of winning the House.

Sherrod Brown beating his wife is really starting to show in the polls. We have a chance in Ohio.
https://etholytics.com/ohio-senate-projection-model/

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2d7GNa

zakattack04 just sent me this 'prediction'

Lean R: TX
Tilt R: MO, ND, TN

Tilt D: FL, IN
Lean D: AZ, NV, MT
Likely D: WV

Everything else is safe

What's up with your retarded predictions?

You mean realistic predictions? Nothing else will flip realistically barring new scandals dropping. I could move Menedez to from Safe to Likely D, but there’s honestly no way he will lose while 4 out 5 republican seats in NJ are going down, some of them bigly.

And Baldwin and Brown are leading by double digits in almost every recent poll. Scott is losing ground, unfortunately, and I think Gillum will narrowly drag Nelson across the finish line.

The vast majority of polls indicate that Sinema will win and has the momentum

Manchin is virtually safe and every poll shows him curb-stomping Morrisey

>AZ
>lean D

Lean D may be too generous to republicans

After Sinema's lying scandal, it's stupid.

She's pretty consistently been in the margin of error, too.

Plus two polls have even shown McSally in the lead this month anyway, even before the lying scandal

We barely managed to win this seat in 2012 despite having a much more friendly political environment.

And Sinema has positioned herself well as a centrist Democrat

Only CNN, Fox News (RV-poll only), and ProgressNowAZ polls have shown Sinema escape the margin of error.

Oh, and Emerson.

The great majority of close races break against the party that holds the whites house during wave years. There is no reason to expect 2018 to be any different

Memerson put Sinema just outside of the margin of error.

Yeah and also showed Donnelly +12. Don’t pay much attention to Emerson