Barilojian*

@Yellowhammer Show me your house prediction.

On the 270towin map.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Where're the Libertarian endorsements?

Oh I see.

You DON'T find Al Green based?

@[Lex] http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/GK5eD1K

This is a little optimistic

The wheels could really come off in Florida

And NC could be a real dummymander

Your prediction's more pessimistic than the most pessimistic professional poll.

Or is this simply your prediction WITHOUT tossups?

Without tossup a

I see.

But even without tossups, it's certainly the most pessimistic ofthe polls I've seen.

You think ME-02 is flipping?

ME-02*

Nor I.

Then again, a lot of electoral dogmas have been uprooted recently.

Hey Guys, hows it going

@[Lex] yes. RCV is going to get Poliquin.

And Golden is a fairly strong candidate. It’s Tilt D

ME-02 is a very WWC state, I think Poliquin will survive

the seats I'm most worried about are seats with a high amount of college educated democrats

because there are two countervailing turnout trends

non-Whites have lower turnout in midterms

that helps the GOP, especially in the sunbelt

However....

Whites without College Degrees have lower turnout in midterms compared to Whites with College degrees

back in the day, that didn't really matter

but now, given the shift in education support, that can help the Dems in some districts

Which is funny because the only thing Dems offer them in return for their votes is taxing more of their money and shaming them for “whites privilege” BS

the one asterix on this, is that White College Educated is young skewed

so maybe the shift isn't as bad as we think, since Millennial turnout is abysmal in midterms

but... idk

I do know that Whites aged 18-22 vote no differently if they are in college than if they are outside of college

don't know if that trend carries over to other ages

The extreme shifts in WCE areas from 2012 and current polling indicates that it is pretty darn near apocalyptic for the GOP

Blum is a pretty right wing candidate

doesn't surprise me

Blum will lose by almost 20 points