Message from @Yellowhammer

Discord ID: 493233246943969280


2018-09-23 01:17:57 UTC  

Look at New Hampshire. Democratic turnout HIGHER than GOP turnout. First time in history.

2018-09-23 01:18:18 UTC  

Florida turnout, the Democratic-Republican ratio has never been this close to 1:1 in history.

2018-09-23 01:19:05 UTC  

A silver lining is that Republican turnout is really not much lower than 2016 and in many cases quite a bit higher.

2018-09-23 01:19:27 UTC  

So it's not like 2010 for the Democrats where their turnout was low and GOP turnout was meteoric.

2018-09-23 01:19:40 UTC  

GOP turnout is good and Democratic turnout is shockingly high.

2018-09-23 01:22:32 UTC  

This is why, while there is a "wave" of sorts, it likely won't be sufficient for them to flip the House.

2018-09-23 01:23:24 UTC  

Also - many of those vulnerable congressmen are scum moderates who probably would vote against most key GOP proposals anyway, meaning no real net loss.

2018-09-23 01:26:39 UTC  

there is a net loss

2018-09-23 01:26:48 UTC  

you allow Democrats to get control of the House Judiciary and House finance committee

2018-09-23 01:26:55 UTC  

The loss of any one republican is a loss because it gives the Dems one more vote. The worst republican is still much better than the best Democrat most of the time

2018-09-23 01:27:12 UTC  

allow that to happen, and you have 100s of spurious investigations into Trump designed to produce never-ending streams of dirt and "scandals" designed to take him down in 2020

2018-09-23 01:28:21 UTC  

It means nothing if a particular Democrat won't vote for Pelosi, or might be better on a few issues than a moderate Republican. They are still going to vote to put Elijah Cummings as head of the House Oversight Committee

2018-09-23 01:29:47 UTC  

That's very true but I also won't be tearing up if Carlos Curbelo loses his congressional seat. We have limited resources and not all Republican incumbents can be saved.

2018-09-23 01:30:33 UTC  

Curbelo has a chance to win

2018-09-23 01:30:48 UTC  

Blum and Rothfus, while better on the issues are gonners

2018-09-23 01:30:49 UTC  

You will be if he loses by a couple votes and his race decides control of the house. Every single incumbent matters.

2018-09-23 01:31:31 UTC  

Insofar as committee control is concerned, yes.

2018-09-23 01:31:44 UTC  

But from a legislative point of view, no.

2018-09-23 01:32:15 UTC  

At least most pieces of legislation I care about.

2018-09-23 01:32:20 UTC  

Is it possible that the increased democrat primary turnout is due to the neoliberal vs progressive fight, whereas republicans have been consistently electing the most Trumpian candidate? I could see a lot of the hard-liners who vote in a general not voting in the primary until now.

2018-09-23 01:32:49 UTC  

Curbelo is a fine congressman most of the time, when you take it to mind what the sheer partisanship of his district will allow for

2018-09-23 01:33:14 UTC  

+ certain Republicans poison the Republican well and serve to preserve Republican establishmentarianism.

2018-09-23 01:33:31 UTC  

A Trojan horse.

2018-09-23 01:33:37 UTC  

tbh, I'm not hopeful for legislation this term

2018-09-23 01:33:44 UTC  

we can barely pass anything as is

2018-09-23 01:33:50 UTC  

and we are going to lose some seats

2018-09-23 01:33:52 UTC  

I would rather have Republican establishmentarian than socialism, wouldn’t you?

2018-09-23 01:34:07 UTC  

It all depends on the margin.

2018-09-23 01:34:22 UTC  

this election is about preventing Republicans from losing Committee control in the House, and maintaining enough control in the Senate to survive 2020 losses and to keep appointing justices

2018-09-23 01:34:27 UTC  

And personally, both of them are equally disgusting.

2018-09-23 01:34:43 UTC  

If we have a solid lead in the senate and maybe 224-226 house seats then I think we can get the wall and repeal obongo care.

2018-09-23 01:35:01 UTC  

No they aren’t, there’s a clear difference. They are far from equivalent

2018-09-23 01:35:14 UTC  

Can you say that while you have Ron Paul as your dp?

2018-09-23 01:35:18 UTC  

If we lose here then our next chance will be 2020-2022 where republicans win back the house and presumably hold the Senate.

2018-09-23 01:35:55 UTC  

They both present problems of similar gravity in different areas.

2018-09-23 01:35:55 UTC  

@[Lex] Yes. I hate both, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a clear favorite week it comes to picking which one I would rather have

2018-09-23 01:35:59 UTC  

McCain single handily ruined Trump's first two years though.

2018-09-23 01:36:04 UTC  

^

2018-09-23 01:36:11 UTC  

McCain is an example of one of these gentlemen.

2018-09-23 01:36:49 UTC  

I'll be fighting tooth and nail for a Republican House and Senate but I won't lie and saying I don't have preferences.

2018-09-23 01:36:58 UTC  

Not all congressmen are born equal.