Message from @Yellowhammer
Discord ID: 493237403947892776
Iowa is probably too generous to GOP IMO .... IA-03 is tossup territory (if tilting R) and IA-01 has been triaged by the national Republicans.
At the same time, how is TX-23 lean Dem, when polling has Hurd up, and the TX State Senate 19 race (largely co-terminus with the district) went Red?
New York Times polling has been bad. I took the State Senate election in account when I shifted the district to Tilt Dem.
Iowa is unpredictable.
Why do you say the NYTimes polling is bad
Sample size of 500 for each district, which is abysmal.
You need 600 to be slightly accurate, and 1000 to be worth glancing at.
@Pielover19 wouldn't all these House polls so far be abysmal then
I think that the sheer margin Hurd received is enough to make the poll somewhat credible.
Even if it's not 10, it's probably more like 2 or 3.
But that's a win.
I'm skeptical.
Barilojian*
@Yellowhammer Show me your house prediction.
On the 270towin map.
@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Where're the Libertarian endorsements?
Oh I see.
You DON'T find Al Green based?
This is a little optimistic
And NC could be a real dummymander
Your prediction's more pessimistic than the most pessimistic professional poll.
Or is this simply your prediction WITHOUT tossups?
Without tossup a
I see.
But even without tossups, it's certainly the most pessimistic ofthe polls I've seen.
You think ME-02 is flipping?
ME-02*
Nor I.
Then again, a lot of electoral dogmas have been uprooted recently.
Hey Guys, hows it going
@[Lex] yes. RCV is going to get Poliquin.
And Golden is a fairly strong candidate. It’s Tilt D
ME-02 is a very WWC state, I think Poliquin will survive
the seats I'm most worried about are seats with a high amount of college educated democrats
because there are two countervailing turnout trends
non-Whites have lower turnout in midterms
that helps the GOP, especially in the sunbelt
However....
Whites without College Degrees have lower turnout in midterms compared to Whites with College degrees