Message from @Yellowhammer
Discord ID: 493243553993195521
Nor I.
Then again, a lot of electoral dogmas have been uprooted recently.
Hey Guys, hows it going
@[Lex] yes. RCV is going to get Poliquin.
And Golden is a fairly strong candidate. It’s Tilt D
ME-02 is a very WWC state, I think Poliquin will survive
the seats I'm most worried about are seats with a high amount of college educated democrats
because there are two countervailing turnout trends
non-Whites have lower turnout in midterms
that helps the GOP, especially in the sunbelt
However....
Whites without College Degrees have lower turnout in midterms compared to Whites with College degrees
back in the day, that didn't really matter
but now, given the shift in education support, that can help the Dems in some districts
Which is funny because the only thing Dems offer them in return for their votes is taxing more of their money and shaming them for “whites privilege” BS
the one asterix on this, is that White College Educated is young skewed
so maybe the shift isn't as bad as we think, since Millennial turnout is abysmal in midterms
but... idk
I do know that Whites aged 18-22 vote no differently if they are in college than if they are outside of college
don't know if that trend carries over to other ages
The extreme shifts in WCE areas from 2012 and current polling indicates that it is pretty darn near apocalyptic for the GOP
Blum is a pretty right wing candidate
doesn't surprise me
Blum will lose by almost 20 points
Presidential turnout won't help him like last time
That's excessive, but him losing by 10 wouldn't surprise me
I agree he's certain to lose though
The WWC swings towards the Dems in Iowa are ungodly. It is back to voting like it’s 2008
I think there's a little bit of that
very White areas as pretty elastic politically
I’m pretty sure that Kim Reynolds will lose. Steve Kong might be the only republican member of the delegation to survive
and these people don't have a long history of voting GOP
IA-03 is still viable I think
Yes
But it’s tilt R at best and could easily fall
>VA-10
>Red
doubt.jpg
Goodnight everyone
@Yellowhammer You made NJ 05 dark blue?
Like what the fuck?