Message from @Yellowhammer
Discord ID: 493240761027002378
Ultimately, we'll have to wait for election night but I highly doubt it'll be as bad as that.
Incumbents that poll below 50% within the MOE during wave years generally lose.
And we have lots of those...
There will be a few bright spots come November but ultimately the outcome is pretty much laid in stone. The writing is all over the wall.
We haven’t lead the GCB in any meaningful way in a very long time, and Trump’s approvals according to the vast majority of polls are really bad.
We've beaten the odds before
Well, according to the aggregate, yes.
Don't write off the House, but I do agree we are the underdogs there
But that aggregate is including rather nonsensical polls like the +14 we saw the other day.
Nate Bronze gives us a 1 in 5 chance?
20% happens sometimes
Some give 20, some 25, some around 40.
I think it’s about 5
5%?
5% is too low
*rolls eyes*
if you look at FiveThirtyEights model
you must be fun at parties
the number of seats Democrats are ahead in isn't as much as you think
the reason their odds are good, is because they have a 25% chance or so in a bunch of seats
@[Lex] I could be a lot worse. Many of the Dems at US Election Atlas un ironically think that the Dems will pick up 80+ seats. Some think that Mo Brooks, Steve King, and Katie Arrington will lose
I have the most “optimistic” house rating amongst all of them probably
Obama's approval rating in 2014 was worse than Trump's current rating, according to rcp. This gave the generic ballot 5.7 R. Factor in boomer chads and hopefully lower minority turnout and the dems should do worse. Factor in gerry mandering and their opportunity to pick up seats looks pretty bad. The only reason I'm nervous is the raw strength of their generic ballot polling.
what's up with Utah?
as much as Romney is establishment on a lot of issues, he's actually pretty reasonable on immigration
the fact that he's in a Safer-than-Safe race and is still running against illegal immigration tells you something
I'm hoping for a Romney redemption arc. It was cool as fuck to see Romney say "I was even harder on illegal immigration than Trump back in 2012 because I opposed DACA." Since he's in an extremely safe seat his only opportunity for career advancement will be to be pro-Trump, so even if he cucks out on something it'll be a different type of cucking out than those guys who are (((moderates))) to get reelected.
Romney on the issues wasn't too bad in 2012
strong on immigration, he wanted to label China a currency manipulator, etc.
if you look at the areas he gained ground in, those were the same areas Trump improved a lot in
my parents backed him in the primary in 2008
Romney didn't win Whites by 20, closer to 17
He only got like 57%, and I know Obama cleared 40%
Romney did slightly better than Trump in absolute terms among Whites, but did worse margin wise
and Trump had a far better distribution
gained votes in states that mattered, lost them in states that didn't
ehh, I don't know about that
that relies on exit poll estimates of the composition of the electorate, which are faulty
one second, I think there was an article about this