reagent
Discord ID: 260591421470277633
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Hello
Location: MO-02
Ideology: I consider myself both as a member of the Religious Right and a Libertarian. Lee / Cruz / Sasse-esque
@fhtagn (VA-01) sent me the link
Will you be voting GOP this November and convincing your trusted family members and friends to do so as well?
Yes, I've only voted for GOP candidates in the 10 elections I've voted in so far. (the only Democrat I ever considered voting for lost in the primary this cycle - and that's for county prosecutor). I've made sure my brother who is in college is registered to vote and knows how to do a mail-in absentee vote, and I'll be talking it over the procedure with one of my cousins (who recently turned 18) later this month. Rest of my family are reliable Republican voters, so I don't need to convince them.
If he wants to be safe, there's still free money buying "No" for IA-01
Iowa is probably too generous to GOP IMO .... IA-03 is tossup territory (if tilting R) and IA-01 has been triaged by the national Republicans.
At the same time, how is TX-23 lean Dem, when polling has Hurd up, and the TX State Senate 19 race (largely co-terminus with the district) went Red?
for IA-01?
So let me get this straight, the accuser wants to go second, and wants the ability to subponea people?
No sane person would accept this
Clearly poison pills to avoid testifying
could be (I think Manchin is going to survive though) - I'm just saying that IA-01 is the easiest way to make money without much risk
Also worth pointing out: Anita Hill testified within 5 days of her claims being leaked
we are now past that aren't we?
Do you guys think the GOP has a chance to hold FL-27?
No, it's Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's district
Cuberlo is the 26th
Everyone is saying FL-27 is Solid Dem.... but the polling doesn't really bear that out
and the GOP candidate Salazar is leagues better than the Democratic candidate Shalala
Shalala somehow doesn't know Spanish, despite this district being based around Miami, she's also almost 77, and last was in politics as HHS secretary under the Clinton administration
who did?
Salazar?
she isn't running again
it's an open seat
Maria Salazar is the Republican running
Salazar also is similarly moderate
I think there is some potential for a shocker here
just like WV-03 could theoretically elect a Democrat, I think FL-27 could return another Republican
Anyone else kind of amazed at how there's significant amount of people defending O'Rourke's DUI as a "youthful mistake" and simultaneously demanding Kavanaugh not be confirmed because of alleged drunken conduct as a teenager?
has anyone in Texas brought this up?
Young Kim in CA-39 was pretty good as well
It doesn't appear to be legit
example ^
and it was based entirely on secondhand reporting
I think if Ford's team capitulates to demands tomorrow, they will delay until Wednesday
but her team lacks any leverage anymore
Disappointed the rally got moved to Springfield, because otherwise I would have been able to attend. At least I got to see Hawley earlier this year though
He's been Senator longer than most people here have been alive
that's commonplace
honestly he has one of the funniest twitters
My connection appears to be too poor to join chat
Yeah, I can't hear y'all clearly, and I'm not audible to y'all. This is what I get for living in a shithole part of St . Louis, the wifi here is perpetually shit.
So, as much as I'd like to join what seems to be a conversation on how Elon Musk sucks, I'll have to pass for the moment
I'm no fan of Booker, but this is a lot weaker than a lot of other examples you could use
they are feeling each other up, and when he goes a little too far, she remands him, and he stops.... that's not going to seriously sink this guy
I mean, Keith Ellison is the #2 in charge of the DNC, and his story is damning
Archie Parnell, the Democratic candidate for SC-05 literally struck his ex-wife with a tire iron after breaking and entering into the house she was hiding from him in
yeah the media has a lot to do with this
some Washington Post guy was wondering why Republicans weren't able to replicate "Beto-mania" with any of their candidates
gee, idk, maybe because you people have been giving O'Rourke excessive fawning coverage, and doing none of that for any of the interesting GOP candidates?
The Roy Moore allegations were a lot more plausible than this - I think you can see the reaction of the GOP as testament to that
Moore lost because GOP turnout cratered , tons of Republicans abandoned him
I don't know any prominent Republican who has said they believe Ford over Kavanaugh
No, they absolutely should. There's a reason her lawyers are throwing poison pills into the process
if she testifies under oath to the SJC, then her statements carry criminal penalty if she is lying
multiple women who didn't come forward themselves (but rather the media did investigating and found these women - there were rumors in Alabama that had existed for awhile regarding Moore's conduct). Moore's denial statement was also much weaker than what Kavanaugh issued - and he never submitted a statement in any venue that would carry criminal penalty if he lied. Kavanaugh has.
Plus, it is pretty evident that he had interacted in some capacity with some of these women - whereas we don't know if Ford and Kavanaugh were ever at the same venue together
Also, I think that some of his accusers were Republicans matters on some level as well
Maybe, but I don't think it's fair to say these allegations are equally spurious
Enough is enough. She isn't serious. Vote on Monday.
I will not testify in a car.
I will not testify near or far.
I will not testify in a train.
I will not fly in a plane.
I will not testify, here or there.
I will not testify anywhere.
I will not testify first. Or last.
I will not testify slow or fast.
There's nothing more for me to say.
I can't remember, anyway
there is a net loss
you allow Democrats to get control of the House Judiciary and House finance committee
allow that to happen, and you have 100s of spurious investigations into Trump designed to produce never-ending streams of dirt and "scandals" designed to take him down in 2020
It means nothing if a particular Democrat won't vote for Pelosi, or might be better on a few issues than a moderate Republican. They are still going to vote to put Elijah Cummings as head of the House Oversight Committee
Curbelo has a chance to win
Blum and Rothfus, while better on the issues are gonners
tbh, I'm not hopeful for legislation this term
we can barely pass anything as is
and we are going to lose some seats
this election is about preventing Republicans from losing Committee control in the House, and maintaining enough control in the Senate to survive 2020 losses and to keep appointing justices
and many of the Republicans who have a chance to survive, like Cuberlo, Hurd, Dunham, Valadao are moderates - so even if we hold the House, I'm not sure we get major legislation passed
the time for that, I think is 2020 - hope Trump coattails bring in enough new Republicans
Unnamed Woman supposedly at the party also denies anything occured
We've beaten the odds before
Don't write off the House, but I do agree we are the underdogs there
Nate Bronze gives us a 1 in 5 chance?
20% happens sometimes
5% is too low
if you look at FiveThirtyEights model
the number of seats Democrats are ahead in isn't as much as you think
the reason their odds are good, is because they have a 25% chance or so in a bunch of seats
ME-02 is a very WWC state, I think Poliquin will survive
the seats I'm most worried about are seats with a high amount of college educated democrats
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