He trailed by 5 points in a poll released today

Some of ya’ll should join Atlas. That place needs more right wingers in the worst way

Lean R: TX
Tilt R: MO, ND, TN

Tilt D: FL, IN
Lean D: AZ, NV, MT
Likely D: WV

Everything else is safe

You mean realistic predictions? Nothing else will flip realistically barring new scandals dropping. I could move Menedez to from Safe to Likely D, but there’s honestly no way he will lose while 4 out 5 republican seats in NJ are going down, some of them bigly.

And Baldwin and Brown are leading by double digits in almost every recent poll. Scott is losing ground, unfortunately, and I think Gillum will narrowly drag Nelson across the finish line.

The vast majority of polls indicate that Sinema will win and has the momentum

Manchin is virtually safe and every poll shows him curb-stomping Morrisey

Lean D may be too generous to republicans

We barely managed to win this seat in 2012 despite having a much more friendly political environment.

And Sinema has positioned herself well as a centrist Democrat

The great majority of close races break against the party that holds the whites house during wave years. There is no reason to expect 2018 to be any different

Yeah and also showed Donnelly +12. Don’t pay much attention to Emerson

2018 isn’t going to be

Did you pay attention to the safe R house seat in AZ that we barely hung onto in the special election last spring?
The swing against the Republican Party in AZ is substantial

Outlier, ang Gollum won’t win by that much, but he is clearly in the lead

Lean D

The entire Democratic Party is a scam

A mob organization

Lindsey Graham showed some real courage today. I have a lot more respect for him after listening to him today

He should

Don’t bank on it. The average voter is not paying close attention to these sorts of things.
It will damage their chances significantly but may not necessarily doom them

If K is confirmed Atlas USGD will be an unreadable radioactive wasteland for weeks

It is more likely to be completely blue. Loebsack is completely safe, Blum will lose by almost 20 points, and Young is a tossup

Even Steve King is not invulnerable

Though he’ll probably win

It’s very unlikely, but more likely than all red @Julien Blanc

I really hope this sinks him

@Julien Blanc No

I’m much more optimistic for republicans chances than most there

Flake managed to fuck it up

Thankfully he’ll be gone soon

Even though he’ll be replaced by a Democrat, it’s almost worth it

Flake has the most appropriate name of any senator ever

I have endless rage for Alabama republicans who voted for Doug Jones

OH-1 and VA-2 live polls are going quite well atm

IA-3 looks to be a pure tossup

But, AZ-2 is horrifying. AZ is experiencing a true blue wave

They are somewhat useful if obviously not 100% accurate

Most have a 5 pt margin of error

I wish they would have slightly larger samples

Still useful as a data point, obviously not conclusive

I think it’s 60/40 yes

The stakes are too damn high

Only Manchin may break ranks

He is in a good enough position that it wouldn’t matter, he will win no matter what. Morrisey is a pretty weak candidate

Tester, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Nelson are the only realistic targets.
Though Nelson is slipping away fast

Trump should camp out there non stop

Rally two or three more times before Election Day

Gillum is surging unfortunately and I think he will drag Nelson to the finish line. It is slipping away from us fast, even the Chamber of Commerce internal has Nelson up

Still important to try

Heitkamp and McCaskill are priority number one

DeSantis as proven to be a huge mistake. We really fumbled the ball by not nominating Putnam

He is floundering

It’s sad to watch

The news is depressing, as usual

No @Julien Blanc

What, to me?

No. I am “yellowhammer” on discord, Atlas, and RRH

What, was he also honest about how the races are going?

Romney is not an improvement over Hatch

After all her shenanigans I think she will face a really tough primary challenge come 2022

It’s Florida, not North Dakota. The majority of the state probably leans against Kavanaugh

Florida is not a red state, and almost no democrats support Kavanaugh

You say "the democrats who aren't totally insane"... That's only maybe 25% of them, tops.

But probably much less

Damn

No. The only seats repubs would ever have a prayer to flip are IN, ND, MO, FL, MT, and maybe WV

Ok, maaaybe they could pull off Wisconsin if a perfect storm precipitates

This poll only shows Hugin gettin 3% of Democrats, and only winning independents 4 to 3.

Not good

The lack of sunlight and deathly cold drives them crazy

Wouldn’t you be crazy if it was too cold to go outside 7 months out of the year?

Another big problem with the NJ polls is that minority’s are horrendously underrepresented in the sample.
Menendez is probably up mid-single digits

Ouch. Hillary looks like she has aged 10 years in 1

Don’t be racist

Gillum will be an awful governor but it will have nothing to do with his race

Glorious news!

Senator Cramer.

MI and PA would be a waste, shift those to other states

Solid will still say this race is Safe D @fhtagn

Atlas dumbasses say that voting against Kavanaugh will help them win re-election

Texas is becoming Virginia 2.0

Triage PA and MI, spend little time in MN, and hammer hard in all the rest

Yes, that’s the only reason to go there though. All the races there except AG are a reach.

Expanding the senate should be the goal because we probably will narrowly lose the house

We have really collapsed in Michigan over the summer

Stabenow is leading by like 20+

He should be rallying every day now

Good

Montana has a contingency of voters who for some reason stubbornly vote democratic at the state level. Idk how they have fallen for Bullock and Tester.
Tester is as liberal as most other dem senators, and yet gets crazy crossover votes from right-leaning voters

I think Manchin will vote yes

And that’s it

Though Donnelly has showed signs of back tracking

Sky Queen is voting how her handlers tell her to and will go down with ship like a good partisan

I wouldn’t. Do it for Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley

They will all win I think

Blackburn is the most questionable. I expected Bredesen’s numbers to start tanking by now but they aren’t budging
TN has me worried
Heck he was leading by 5 in a poll today

Barely

That’s irrational. Oppose his abhorrent policies, not his genes

I can tell @Julien Blanc

Atlas still acting like Mo-Sen is likely D 🙄

There was probably a significant R turnout problem in the west and southwest.
The dem base was extremely energized for that race