Honestly I don’t see a way in which we can retain the house. It just isn’t going to happen. The Dems already are already halfway there by means of auto gains like Comstock, LoBiondo, Blum, Paulsen, and Coffman’s districts

It’s borderline Safe D

and many of the Republicans who have a chance to survive, like Cuberlo, Hurd, Dunham, Valadao are moderates - so even if we hold the House, I'm not sure we get major legislation passed

the time for that, I think is 2020 - hope Trump coattails bring in enough new Republicans

Time is ticking, gentlemen.

That demographic clock.

The demographic clock can work in our advantage if we play our cards white. If republican vs democrat explicitly becomes whites vs everyone else then we can expect to break new ground up North. R vs D will never die, but the parties themselves are going to change immensely in the next 50 years.

play our cards right* lol

That's very true but we'll have to sweep ALL of them to compensate for Texas, Florida, Arizona, soon Georgia, North Carolina and so on.

I don't even know how you do that.

@Yellowhammer "Honestly I don’t see a way in which we can retain the house. It just isn’t going to happen"

bullshit. cut that talk out of this discord

Blacks aren't growing. GA and NC are safe. Best case scenario is TX and AZ being a pure toss up while the rust-belt flips decisively republican and possibly some of the Northwest and New England.

Mm, they're growing a few percentage points over each decade.

But Georgia and NC will likely be tossups very soon.

Well, perhaps not actually.

It's all about how fast whites become Republicans.

@Julien Blanc I don’t want that to happen, and it troubles me every day. It’s going to be horrible.
I just don’t lie to myself and give myself false hope.
It will probably be even worse than I think it’s going to be.

@Yellowhammer I think your predictions are considerably more pessimistic than even the raw numbers suggest.

Ultimately, we'll have to wait for election night but I highly doubt it'll be as bad as that.

Incumbents that poll below 50% within the MOE during wave years generally lose.

And we have lots of those...

There will be a few bright spots come November but ultimately the outcome is pretty much laid in stone. The writing is all over the wall.

We haven’t lead the GCB in any meaningful way in a very long time, and Trump’s approvals according to the vast majority of polls are really bad.

We've beaten the odds before

Well, according to the aggregate, yes.

Don't write off the House, but I do agree we are the underdogs there

But that aggregate is including rather nonsensical polls like the +14 we saw the other day.

Nate Bronze gives us a 1 in 5 chance?

20% happens sometimes

Some give 20, some 25, some around 40.

I think it’s about 5

5%?

5% is too low

*rolls eyes*

if you look at FiveThirtyEights model

you must be fun at parties

the number of seats Democrats are ahead in isn't as much as you think

the reason their odds are good, is because they have a 25% chance or so in a bunch of seats

@[Lex] I could be a lot worse. Many of the Dems at US Election Atlas un ironically think that the Dems will pick up 80+ seats. Some think that Mo Brooks, Steve King, and Katie Arrington will lose

I have the most “optimistic” house rating amongst all of them probably

Obama's approval rating in 2014 was worse than Trump's current rating, according to rcp. This gave the generic ballot 5.7 R. Factor in boomer chads and hopefully lower minority turnout and the dems should do worse. Factor in gerry mandering and their opportunity to pick up seats looks pretty bad. The only reason I'm nervous is the raw strength of their generic ballot polling.