rather than always resorting to baseless conspiracy you and I both know you cannot prove

People actually waste their time Studying Polling?

What losers

I tend to prefer the RCP average to any particular pollster, but you can go see the generic ballot and it's all over the place. Polls are pretty much whatever you want them to be, if your goal is just trying to prove your side is going to win. It makes more sense to look at polls and use them to gauge voter groups. We need to be looking at minority turnout, party hard-liner turnout, and the white working class.

And partisan turnout is very high. Look at Arizona turnout. It's NEVER been that close between Democrats and Republicans in a very long time.

Look at New Hampshire. Democratic turnout HIGHER than GOP turnout. First time in history.

Florida turnout, the Democratic-Republican ratio has never been this close to 1:1 in history.

A silver lining is that Republican turnout is really not much lower than 2016 and in many cases quite a bit higher.

So it's not like 2010 for the Democrats where their turnout was low and GOP turnout was meteoric.

GOP turnout is good and Democratic turnout is shockingly high.

This is why, while there is a "wave" of sorts, it likely won't be sufficient for them to flip the House.

Also - many of those vulnerable congressmen are scum moderates who probably would vote against most key GOP proposals anyway, meaning no real net loss.

there is a net loss

you allow Democrats to get control of the House Judiciary and House finance committee

The loss of any one republican is a loss because it gives the Dems one more vote. The worst republican is still much better than the best Democrat most of the time

allow that to happen, and you have 100s of spurious investigations into Trump designed to produce never-ending streams of dirt and "scandals" designed to take him down in 2020

It means nothing if a particular Democrat won't vote for Pelosi, or might be better on a few issues than a moderate Republican. They are still going to vote to put Elijah Cummings as head of the House Oversight Committee

That's very true but I also won't be tearing up if Carlos Curbelo loses his congressional seat. We have limited resources and not all Republican incumbents can be saved.

Curbelo has a chance to win

Blum and Rothfus, while better on the issues are gonners

You will be if he loses by a couple votes and his race decides control of the house. Every single incumbent matters.

Insofar as committee control is concerned, yes.

But from a legislative point of view, no.

At least most pieces of legislation I care about.

Is it possible that the increased democrat primary turnout is due to the neoliberal vs progressive fight, whereas republicans have been consistently electing the most Trumpian candidate? I could see a lot of the hard-liners who vote in a general not voting in the primary until now.

Curbelo is a fine congressman most of the time, when you take it to mind what the sheer partisanship of his district will allow for

+ certain Republicans poison the Republican well and serve to preserve Republican establishmentarianism.

A Trojan horse.

tbh, I'm not hopeful for legislation this term

we can barely pass anything as is

and we are going to lose some seats

I would rather have Republican establishmentarian than socialism, wouldn’t you?

It all depends on the margin.

this election is about preventing Republicans from losing Committee control in the House, and maintaining enough control in the Senate to survive 2020 losses and to keep appointing justices

And personally, both of them are equally disgusting.

If we have a solid lead in the senate and maybe 224-226 house seats then I think we can get the wall and repeal obongo care.

No they aren’t, there’s a clear difference. They are far from equivalent

Can you say that while you have Ron Paul as your dp?

If we lose here then our next chance will be 2020-2022 where republicans win back the house and presumably hold the Senate.

They both present problems of similar gravity in different areas.

@[Lex] Yes. I hate both, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a clear favorite week it comes to picking which one I would rather have