Sample size of 500 for each district, which is abysmal.

You need 600 to be slightly accurate, and 1000 to be worth glancing at.

@Pielover19 wouldn't all these House polls so far be abysmal then

I think that the sheer margin Hurd received is enough to make the poll somewhat credible.

Even if it's not 10, it's probably more like 2 or 3.

But that's a win.

I'm skeptical.

https://youtu.be/-cwC7XAaP4E

Barilojian*

@Yellowhammer Show me your house prediction.

On the 270towin map.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Where're the Libertarian endorsements?

Oh I see.

You DON'T find Al Green based?

@[Lex] http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/GK5eD1K

This is a little optimistic

The wheels could really come off in Florida

And NC could be a real dummymander

Your prediction's more pessimistic than the most pessimistic professional poll.

Or is this simply your prediction WITHOUT tossups?

Without tossup a

I see.

But even without tossups, it's certainly the most pessimistic ofthe polls I've seen.

You think ME-02 is flipping?

ME-02*

Nor I.

Then again, a lot of electoral dogmas have been uprooted recently.

Hey Guys, hows it going

@[Lex] yes. RCV is going to get Poliquin.

And Golden is a fairly strong candidate. It’s Tilt D

ME-02 is a very WWC state, I think Poliquin will survive

the seats I'm most worried about are seats with a high amount of college educated democrats

because there are two countervailing turnout trends

non-Whites have lower turnout in midterms

that helps the GOP, especially in the sunbelt

However....

Whites without College Degrees have lower turnout in midterms compared to Whites with College degrees

back in the day, that didn't really matter

but now, given the shift in education support, that can help the Dems in some districts

Which is funny because the only thing Dems offer them in return for their votes is taxing more of their money and shaming them for “whites privilege” BS

the one asterix on this, is that White College Educated is young skewed