http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/l7b1L8

Current prediction

Here’s what I think would be the best possible outcome

@Rhodesiaboo honestly Klobuchar (Minnesota) is easier than Heinrich ( New Mexico)

Maybe

Also (((Klobuchar)))

Lol, that’s impossible.

The only dem incumbents who are in any danger are Heitkamp, McCaskill, Nelson, Tester, and Donnelly.

And we’ll probably only flip 2 of those, 3 if we’re lucky.

I'd say that's too pessimistic of an outlook

I agree with RS.

But I also assume that your toss-up there actually refers to Johnson winning

That said

Other than Emerson, most non-Libertarian polls actually show Rich in second.

Our best hope in NM is for Johnson to target and go after Democrat voters.

@Rhodesiaboo LOL

@Yellowhammer You're grossly underestimating the GOP right now.

and overestimating Democrats' popularity

The GOP even has a chance in New Jersey right now.

No it doesn’t

We’re going to lose all but one New Jersey house seat

And Hugin doesn’t have a chance

@Yellowhammer I dunno you might be too influenced by the echo chamber at US Election Atlas

@Julien Blanc No, actually. I’m just influenced by the facts. Thinking that we can pick off a dem incumbent in a solid blue state in a blue wave year was always a fantasy.
I wish it weren’t true, but that’s just how it is.

stop it with the defeatism

there's looking at our situation realistically and then there's whiny despair

I’m not defeatist. I think we can increase our senate majority, we just have to play our cards right and not waste time and money on safe blue seats.

these aren't safe blue seats though

we're forfeiting more than we have to if you believe EVERYTHING except one seat in NJ is definitely gone

chin up, alright?

@Yellowhammer you said the GOP only has a 5% chance of keeping the House though

every pessimist claims they're a realist

That’s true. There are already almost a dozen seats that are as good as gone, and dozens more where the dem is favored

> dozens more where the dem is favored

nah

Yes, I can list them if you’d like

We've got a 50% chance of winning the House.

Sherrod Brown beating his wife is really starting to show in the polls. We have a chance in Ohio.
https://etholytics.com/ohio-senate-projection-model/

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2d7GNa

zakattack04 just sent me this 'prediction'

Lean R: TX
Tilt R: MO, ND, TN

Tilt D: FL, IN
Lean D: AZ, NV, MT
Likely D: WV

Everything else is safe