#noncrypto-investing (Discord ID: 352760194775777282) in MacGuyver - Skills & Academics, page 6
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Looking at it I'm tempted to pick up a few too on a flyer
I follow Q
Q is saying things about IBOR, crimes by jack
Who is Q?
insider on 8chan
Interesting, is he talking about Twitter?
But yeah just based on Twitter's historical volatility, 10 cents for the 13 strike Jan 19 doesn't seem bad. Maybe it's worth to get a handful and sit tight. Even if Twitter just goes down to the 20s in the next few months that put should increase quite a bit
Yeah read through his recent posts, it's fascinating
Cool thanks. true can sell the puts
Isn't Q Anon tinfoil shit?
the insiders know
Haha, I just put in a bid for 5 contracts at .19, we'll see if it takes
Yeah thing is TWTR has had no problem hanging out at 8 dollars in the recent past, so I wouldn't be surprised if this gets jumpy if there's another correction in the next few months
@everyone Tip: If you're trying to meet c-suite contacts, buy 1 share in the company and go to the annual meeting.
^ for those who want to better understand our banking system/central banking/history of money/Rothschild family
@here Anyone looking towards MU Earnings Report tomorrow?
^^Here is a popular analyst report for MU if you are unfamiliar. Download and open to read it
I read through this report and here are my 3 takeaways. I take what this analyst says about the technical things about computer memory devices at face value:
MU (Micron Technology Inc) has two main products right now DRAM and NAND accounting for 64% and 36% of its revenues, respectively. According to the analyst, DRAM is a highly competitive space with little room for growth, NAND is a highly competitive space but with high expectations of growing demand. Apparently computer memory generally has razor thin margins, so having either be the backbone of the company is not great, although NAND is better (according to the analyst) than DRAM. Takeaway #1. Growth in the NAND space vs DRAM space will be considered good.
MU is a small company specializing in one particular thing, so it usually needs to collaborate with other companies to create products that beat the competition. There are several small companies in the space. Samsung is a behemoth because it makes several (most?) different components. MU had a collaboration with Intel called IM technologies that was a good thing for MU, but because Intel recently launched its own memory manufacturing it is probably looking to directly compete with MU. Takeaway #2. MU needs to grow or form new collaborations.
MU does not have an "economic moat", meaning there's nothing that gives is a difficult-to-traverse competitive edge over its competitors. This makes it nearly impossible for MU to ever raise prices so that it might become more profitable. Takeaway #3. Any new initiatives into less competitive spaces will be good news for MU. Especially any market proven successes.
Now I've been watching MU for a few months now and it had been hovering around 40 for a while until the past month when it finally started to breakout up towards 60. The above analyst report was last updated March 9th but almost all the company details are from way before that. So I'm going to try to see if there was some news in the past month that showed MU hitting one of the 3 takeaway points I listed above.
<@&322715617138311171> I would love feedback you can offer
Follow-up, I don't have a thesis yet on direction of movement, but the weekly options expiring friday are priced for a one standard deviation move of 4.265 i.e. +/- 7% That seems reasonable to me based on recent price movements so I'm not going to try direction neutral strategies like selling a straddle.
In the end I'm not taking action with respect to MU's earnings. I found some news about a new product line that probably explains their 50% increase in the past month. But so I have a feeling most good news is priced in. I read another analyst report, this time by credit suisse. The guy was predicting a price target of 70 dollars for the year. It's at 60 now. The analyst among other places I've read said MU has a history of underwhelming during earnings, and I see no sign there is good news that isn't already priced in, so I'm not doing anything special for earnings besides holding the few shares I already have.
Presented without comment; chart by David Wilson of Bloomberg radio.
@Why Tea I am waiting for the short rates to yield more than the long rate (yield curve inversion). Then we will know a recession is on the horizon
buy the Facebook dip
@Patrick that's what I'm doing. I sold puts in order to benefit from high volatility
China is allegedly taking its first steps towards paying for imported crude oil in yuan instead of the U.S. dollar
It could mean demand for the USD drops, then the USD loses value and therefore prices of everything rise.
And could get other countries to start doing the same, further devaluing the dollar.
If you want to see US banks fail, this would be a step in that direction.
China has been decreasing is supply of USD. Apparently japan is the biggest holder of USD. I’m not quite too sure how a decline dollar impacts the economy. It’s good for exporters and it’s good for international travel to the US amongst other things. I will have to think about how else it impacts us
@ThisIsChris IMO, a major reason why the USD value has been relatively stable despite the large expansion of supply and despite the huge debt load is because the rest of the world uses USD to trade oil. If the rest of the world stops using USD for oil, the demand for the USD goes way down.
realvision publications is quite good and so is TV
So in the event we do get involved in Syria, is there anything worth investing in?
@TIDE#0935 BA (Boeing) is a typical stock for military spending, and oil (through USO, a US Oil ETF). The overnight broad market index futures /ES (which is S&P 500) and /NQ (NASDAQ) are actually UP since the bombing started. As is /CL which is West Texas Crude Oil futures.
Yeah military and oil are the only things I can think of. Wonder if our <@&322715617138311171> have some advice to share
I hold an aerospace and defense mutual fund for things like this
Wow, pretty smart on their part
There it is
That's a 5% jump in a few hours
Anyone thinking of buying a home should really hold off
@Zyzz thanks, makes sense. I've been looking (just looking) at places to buy in Manhattan and something I've noticed is that houses very often close for 30% or more off of the original asking price these days. Makes me think the appraisers are off their rockers again.
30% below asking price?
Not all the time, sometimes it's like 20%
Can’t say the same for Florida. Most places go for above ask. Which underscores that real estate is local
@Zyzz interesting, makes sense though. I think part of it in NYC is there are unreal expectations for housing prices. The New York Times writes stories all the time of buyers rushing and outbidding each other in cash for housing. I read those NYT articles and get scared. But then whenever I'm looking at the listing history of any actual place I might consider buying in the future, it's always the opposite story. A place gets listed with an asking price and then over a year's time they keep lowering the price until it sells.
@Zyzz when I said "makes sense though" I meant it makes sense that real estate is local. But what I wonder is: why do you think the prices are like that in your area?
@ThisIsChris Florida has very high net in-migration, favorable tax rates, great weather, and many jobs/companies are moving here
Rents have been sky rocketing in Orlando bc of all the PR migration
I'm conflicted a bit due to rising interest rates.
@Argument of Perigee at some point we will get a recession. At that time there will be no(or very few) buyers in the market and real estate will be relatively cheap. The fed will lower interest rates to help in the recovery. Just remember you can always refi with a lower rate. You can’t change what you paid for the house
With the said, the longer the boom runs the harder/deeper/more prolonged the “crash” typically is.
Look at the dotcom bubble versus the recession we had in 2001/2002
Most people didn’t even know we were in a recession in the early 2000’s but we were. Everyone knows about the dotcom bubble
I'm fully expecting bad things soon for sure.
I'm under contract for a property as we speak though. Good thing Colorado properties are immune.
CO has performed nicely. That’s for sure
Yea, last time I moved to CO just following the big recession I wanted to buy, but prices hadn't moved. 😢
Market crash Monday my dudes, you all ready?
The market usually responds favorably to war. Not that I am condoning the Syria strikes at all
@Zyzz yeah last night I found myself wishing the markets were open. Trading gives a kind of outlet for "oh I have a new piece of information what do I do with it now", because otherwise all I can do is complain about the strikes or ignore them.
@ThisIsChris it certainly does although it’s probable it’s already been priced in. I have been heavy in defense and aerospace bc trump and Israel and neocons and all that. It doesn’t take a genius to conclude the chance of war/increased military spending under this admin will hopen
Trying to learn a bit about algorithmic trading: https://www.quantopian.com/tutorials/getting-started
Wish I had had the agency to buy SBUX when the news broke of them being /our coffee/
Can't get lower...but now. Wait, can it?
It can, but I think the recent boycott news is priced in now. These emotional libby things I expect a quick dip then return, which is what already happened (dip on Friday, and then climb back up on Monday, so I think that ship has sailed already)
Any reason to think the VA 30-year mortgage rate will move in the next 20 days? I'm floating the rate at the moment.
@Argument of Perigee there is a fed meeting May 1-2. I don't think they are expected to hike rates but you never know
4/27 we have the 1st reading (out of 3) of 1Q18 GDP
negative news here would be in your favor
and then of course 1st fri of every month we have the unemployment reading
Rate hike on this much federal debt? Probably not.
They have been climbing...
@Argument of Perigee
Prediction: Long term rates will continue to rise.
Spring is the beginning of "home-buying season." This year loans are more expensive with less properties for sale nationwide.
There has also been an increase in govt interest in the wake of the Trump tax cuts. Although it won't be a dramatic increase, by any stretch of the imagination.
Ugh god the (((Black-Scholes))) formula is going to be the death of me this semester
Oh come on, basic economics
That stuff hurts my head
I can't stand when #'s get too theoretical.
@ophiuchus what class is that? I actually know a little bit about that
I’m retarded, so 1 sec
Have I set this up right
squareroot of 0.25 is 0.5
it looks good
I keep borking it somehow
Man that is some crazy jew wizardry.
d1 here is -0.3931, I’m just trying to work out how
Got -0.4323 last time I worked it out
Using a calculator?
Pardon my lack of experience.
Order of operations?
Has to be something with that
I got -0.34896 just now
Or how you are rounding the numbers
to the hundred thousandth place with each number?
So if I get it to (ln0.94+0.02)/0.12
It’s just ln of 0.94 right, not ln(0.94+0.02)
Now that is too big brain for me
It’s a dot
Not a very well written dot
I can’t write numbers for some reason
Than that should be correct
My handwriting is halfway decent but I can’t write numbers
I know what the answer is I just can’t work it out to get it
They never even taught me cursive.
Isn't that pathetic?
How old are you my man?
Gotcha I’m an old timer so
Ha, I feel that way
Can't stand my generation. Never really hung out with them.
They were phasing it out when I was in 2nd grade
I think we brushed on it for a week in 3rd grade
Had to learn it on my own later because I wanted to read the original federalist papers.
As well as ye old constitution
It’s also just faster imo
My short hand when I did debate was unreadable by anyone else but my partner, but it was as efficient as shorthand. It was mostly symbols
My parents constantly berate me for my handwriting but every time I’ve turned in something handwritten I’ve got compliments, probably just because I’m the only person under 30 who still writes like that
Ha, It's like driving a stick shift or being a unicorn
Oh damn I finally got it
Didn’t subtract the dividend :////
Confirmed for retarded and also stared unblinking at a screen for too long
Good job man. Hope i could help 😃
Anyone buy more meme metals on the dip? Silver is starting to tighten they say.
@everyone Great FMC IPO coming later this year. Potentially September.
Keep us posted!
Keeping an eye on this. Real potential. ^
Sonos IPO also looks promising.
Btw, if any of you are students, sign up for the Wall Street Journal. Worth it.
I’m graduating with a degree in finance next semester and we’re actually required to sub to the WSJ. Get asked questions about it by professors all the time.
Isn't there ways to get around the paywall?
I subbed to WSJ when I was a student, then unsubbed the same month after the constant anti-trump articles during the run-up to the presidential election.
Just don’t pay attention to their political pieces
@Jacob yeah if you archive the URL of the article you are trying to read then you can read it no problem
I study it at times.
Finance section is useful for work. Read up on "Off Duty" for conversation tidbits. It's a good way to gloss over a broad array of topics.
Great way to check out new companies.
Over all, 76 percent of the companies that went public last year were unprofitable on a per-share basis in the year leading up to their initial offerings, according to data compiled by Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business. That was the largest number since the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000, when 81 percent of newly public companies were unprofitable.
Is anyone here into advert buying? Like on youtube, instagram, facebook, etc?
anyone here experienced with generating passive income?
Which is essentially my question with ads
@NeoRealist Yeah, IG and Facebook. Used to work for an Ad Agency and do marketing for a RE brokerage, so that was a lot of my responsibilities.
Better question: Does anyone know how to get into and go about buying social media accounts for ad revenue?
@NeoRealist I'm curious, how does buying social media accounts translate into ad revenue?
Private companies pay you to put their ads on your page since the page you brought has a large following, thus more people who will see the ad and click on it if interested
Or, the social media platform just has a ticker for how many clicks the ad received, and through their conversion process, gives you a cut of the revenue they and the company are willing to provide to you
@here I need help figuring out how much it costs to hire an employee compared to their "salary". Like if I hire someone for 100k salary, I also have to pay some taxes on my side like Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment. It seems like a lot to calculate and I imagine there has to be a reference table where I can look at the "sticker value" of an employee and see "the actual cost" that accounts at least for the taxes the employer has to pay that the employee doesn't see.
was listening to some stuff around YouTube, was caught off guard by this guy 😅
I understand this is far too long for any of you to probably watch in a reasonable time frame, but basically he discusses the major conflict of interests between the markets and those who use them
Those of you who have a better understanding of the financial sector, would you tend to agree with his analysis of how essentially the 90/10 is perpetuated by the IB's/Brokers themselves because its nothing short of a racket?
I feel like I just took the financial red pill 😅
I'm interested in what this guy's end game is though.
Interesting discussion from /r/PersonalFinance:
50% of the boomers have less than $100K saved for retirement. 76% have less than $300K.
"My wife uses this statistic to argue against putting more money away for retirement. Her reasoning is that very few Americans have saved anything. The government can't let tens of millions of elderly starve, so they'll tax the people who have saved to cover those who have not. She says it's better to live large now rather than be frugal and then have our savings go to someone else."
That's why I support keeping some savings outside of the traditional banking system.
The living large thing I definitely disagree with but if you just use traditional retirement options you're probably not going to be very happy when you're ready to retire. Personally my plan is to slowly transfer my wealth to my children before I die to make sure that I can teach them responsibility and also hopefully avoid as much taxes as possible. I want to die a poor man with a rich family.
@Tanner - SC i highly highly doubt they will ever tax net worth or savings. None of the financial elites will allow that to happen. no way in hell
There's no telling what they would do in a crisis. The elites will find a way to protect themselves. I'd honestly be most worried if you were relying on any sort of government pension or savings program but who knows what they would be willing to do to prevent food stamp riots.
Taxing net worth will not be one of them. Waves of wealthy individuals will give up citizenship and move to like Singapore like that one Facebook investor did after the IPO. And that was just a one time tax! Just think how quickly those billionaires would leave if they were going to tax net worth year after year after year.
Yeah I expect that anything the government does will be sold as a one time emergency measure. Who would have thought that they would keep taxing income after the World Wars? Tariffs will never drop below 50% of the Federal revenue. Once we get rid of those dang ransoms to the Barbary States we'll have a massive surplus!
Has anyone tried any of the micro-investing apps like Acorns or Stash?
@commonplebe - IN sounds like a concept similar to DRIP accounts, which allow you to buy fractions of shares of companies, they've been around for a while and if you don't have a lot to invest but would like to get your feet wet it seems better than doing nothing.
Quick google of a review of them, it seems Stash gives you options in what your money goes into. I think that's a more interesting introduction to investing. It helps to have options so I would go with that. Acorns on the other hand doesn't give you any choices in what the money gets invested in.
@Deleted User yeah it's pretty cool to look at stocks and see how their prices react to world events
This is a very far off trade idea, but you guys ever think about how much opportunity will be created by asteroid mining?
A single 30m asteroid can contain 30B in platinum.
Others are also nickel/iron/gold heavy
They can all upset the supply of most metal related markets like hell
So: short on metals, long on mining companies.
And for those not in the know on this stuff: No, it's not *that* far off. We already have companies attempting this, companies like PlanetaryResources and DSI, and NASA (although recently canceling in 2017 the program) has also worked on asteroid redirection and recovery.
Yeah, the only people with enough of a reason to get off planet are mega corporations. That's why colonizing other planets is going to be hellish
I think it'll accelerate in the near future again
If one country ramps up space efforts, all countries do. Space races are great.
Do you think the space force could go hand in hand with these ventures? Basically becoming like our navy defending off world trade routes?
i don't think we'll have any need to defend space ventures for a long long time
There's actually alot of space laws and regulation concerning spacial property already
Two words: space pirates
yeah, like I said, it'll be a long time before we have space pirates 😅
access to space isn't *that* easy/cheap yet
put simply, there could be space pirates, when its safe and economical to be one at all.
Now if these pirates are governments just being cheeky, then that's different. And then there will really be problems
I love thinking about this stuff, but I’m always reminded that if we don’t win our species will be stuck on earth until our extinction, doomed to squabble in the dirt
or even worse
the *asians* do it first.
FTN discussed this a few weeks back and they think the Chinese space program is just a show to save face on the international stage. Their culture has spent so much time focused inward that were they to become the global superpower all off world ventures would cease to be.
eh, I don't watch FTN so idk what was considered. But I think the Asians would eventually do it
But they don't have our drive
But anyways, any kind of off world financial ventures I’m all for. What are your thoughts on Elon Musk and SpaceX?
Definitely a fan, Forever butthurt that Spacex is private not public
hard to find related investments
Wait, so will offworld resource mining literaly crash the shit out of gold/silver?
like, most rare earth metals won't be worth shit
Those who mine it will probably disperse it like diamonds
Selling just enough to keep the price high