@Zyzz (Discord ID: 314730208496320512), page 1
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get a mint app and track your expenses/make a budget.. very effective at making you aware how much you spend and where
@Havamal Always max out pre tax 401k because 1) it is the best return you can possible get (you aren't paying tax on that money). If you marginal tax bracket is 25% it is automatically a 25% return on the money you contribute. 2) usually companies will have an employer match feature - this is essentially free money
@Havamal Also, if you have a qualified high deductible health care plan, look into a HSA account. HSA are pre tax as well. A single person can contribute about 3.5k/yr(I believe). Some companies offer these plans to employees, some do not. These are essentially pre tax savings account you can put towards qualified medical expenses, perscriptions, etc.
@Havamal yes I believe so
dont do it.. i did it
P2P lending is greater as a BORROWER. you have a very competitive interest rate and it is unsecured debt which means if you have to default the lenders have no resource on your assets....
as a lender you have no recourse if the borrower defaults. you are also highly reliant on the underwriting risk metrics/model the company employs (i lent money through lending club)
to understand why lending club has incentive to fund as many loans as possible you first have to look at how they make their money... they do it primarily by originating loans and servicing loans. the bulk of their income is in the origination side.. servicing doesn't make them much money. they make money other ways but these are the primary ways
because LC has incentive to originate as many loans as they can. they will manipulate their risk metrics to justify funding a loan at X% and Grade which implies a certain level of risk. the risk that comes along with these poorly underwritten loans do not justify the pay off
additionally, as a borrower you do not have a lot of information from the borrower so it can be tough to make an assessment yourself as to how risky the loan actually is. you are pretty much going off the grade of the loan and their historical credit information without really understanding what their current income/expense situation is like. additionally, borrowers may say they will use the money for X but they may actually use it towards Y
i also believe there is a lot of fraud going on.. ie: people taking out loans before they die or taking out loans without any intention of paying them back
i would have lost money but i employed a strategy where i would buy the original issue, mark up 2% on the secondary market and sell it off to people who live in states that didn't have access to the original issue.. that made up the bulk of my return. all the defaults i suffered would have made my return negative if i didnt trade notes
damn you did better than me
i went to far out on the risk spectrum.. B-C with some D+E
@John O - , i don't think that'll happen(i think they may be FDIC insured) but with that said if you feel uncomfortable i'd withdraw my money as i have been doing over the last ~2 years
on lending club? did you invest IRA money?
there is a transfer tab on the homepage.. you can withdraw money for free
i hear you.. you should be able to withdraw all of it for free
even if its IRA money you just have to transfer the money to another IRA account
odd i never had a fee in any transfer contribution or withdrawl
was the fee charged by lending club or your bank?
it may be because you did a wire rather than an ACH/electronic disbursement transfer
link your bank account and do a ACH transfer.. the fee should be $0
nah man i am right there with you.. i am gradually liquidating my investments in general
probably not going to go 100% cash but i am gradually pairing down my holdings and getting more defensive with what i do hold
dont buy now whatever you do
i work in RE and homes are well overvalued
@Deleted User take the job opportunity. good MBA programs value candidates with work experience.. work for a few years and see if you want to do an MBA program after that
your GMAT is good for 5 years after you take the test i believe
@Deleted User Check out biggerpockets.com... they have a lot of good books that are easy to understand
they also sell their books on amazon as well
@Deleted User dividends from REITs are taxes at your marginal rate. The idea behind it is REITs are not taxed at the corporate level so all money distributed to you is taxed
@Deleted User it's important to keep in mind MBAs programs are about networking rather than getting good grades. MBA program don't really give out failing grades or really even C's
check out poets and quants for more info on b school
@Deleted User I haven't really looked into munis very much but I believe my discount broker (fidelity) allows for investors to buy the original issue as well as on the secondary market. may I ask what interests you in munis?
@John O - we should start a new channel aimed at RE investment. each member can have a title (ex: Acquisitions, Construction, Property Management, Sales and Marketing, etc.). With that said I am interested in buying property but we need to talk about (and agree to) a lot of things before we start throwing money at any particular asset. Also, as you know I think the market is frothy and we should sit on our hands until we get a recession of some sorts.
John, agreed 100%. Now is the time to build our war chest(cash) and figure out the details. Do you know how to start a new channel?
ok fuck it i am going to make a new channel and if it eventually dies it dies
and we can all discuss this stuff rather than hijacking this channel
i evacuated. my boss and the guy who owns by firm practically required all of us to do it
For anyone invested in IE related RE investments
^curious as to how much you need until you retire? Read the above article
what do you mean by get baited with cheese pizza?
i see i never got into the chans.. i guess thats a good thing
do you think there is any risk to us paying dues over paypal?
or even donations to altright.com or other orgs like that?
About a week ago I turned my ankle on a rock while hiking. The outer park of my foot banged into another rock. For the last week it has hurt to walk. The weird thing is there are no bruises or swelling. The pain is mostly local but occassionally I will have some shooting pain in my foot. Do anyone have any idea what's wrong?
@Deleted User thanks. I think I should have specified the pain is related to the outer part of my foot i banged on the rock rather than my ankle itself. Not sure if that changes your thoughts
@JRobertson we have set up a server related to RE investments that i invited you to
if anyone else is interested in joining a RE investments related website I will gladly invite you
sounds awesome.. i suppose you guys are familar with flipping houses as well?
yeah with flipping we would need to have a good idea of costs and plan accordingly
the other nice thing about flipping is we could do this:
- take the proceeds from the refi and put that into the next house
I am looking to upgrade my processor on my 2011 macbook pro. currently i have 2.8 GHz Intel Core i7. 1) what would you reccomend I upgrade to? 2) is this something i can do on my own or should i take it to an apple store or w/e?
^if anyone is looking for good books on stock picking/analysis
benjamin graham is one of the most well respected authors in the space
@Deleted User my macbook works fine i just want to upgrade it so i can play vidya
so dont really want to spend the money on a new computer
Anybody here use dirpy? I am trying to download a song and dirpy will only download the first 30 seconds or so. Not sure if I am doing something wrong or dirpy is defective
^get in touch with your inner chinaman with probably the best way to cook rice known to (white) man
were they really giving the roman salute
i guess thats all good in spain?
not enough of the choosen ones to get them all fired i suppose?
I think Jews without a doubt are out to destroy us, given our history in Europe and even here in the early 20th century - antisementism was quite common. Realistically speaking, with the exception of maybe the northeast asians, we are their only legitimate threat. With that said, Jews are certainly a subversive force BUT you can still make it in America and do quite well if you apply yourself. Jews have made it more of an uphill battle but it can still be done. You just have to keep your nose to the grindstone and keep at it
We also need to band together to give ourselves preference when it comes to hiring/firing/promotion decisions and when it relates to which businesses we will patronize.
Normie friend from HS on facebook
they should probably go back then
@Wotan Klan-GA I work in real estate. Curious what type of building it is? What is the immediate location like? How many stories? Acreage?
@Gaius Mucius Scaevola seconded
So I have been told if I donate old clothes to charity I can get a tax deduction based on the value of the clothes I have donated. Has anyone done that?
Cool I don’t have many clothes I would give away. ~$500 value maybe. Would I be over the limit with that amount do you know?
I’d rather see run for pres than pence
I do believe there is a statistic that shows pedos are far more likely to be homos than straight
I thought it was good how you spoke about issues that republicans typically don’t talk or care about (environment, SS)
It shows there is an actual alternative to basic bitch conservatism
@Tyler0317 wow your mom is smart
never understood how someone could be a vegan
sounds like it defeats the purpose of being vegan/vegetarian
DHS ends temporary residency program for 60K Haitians
^Trump survey. Tell them you want to MAWA
woke VA state senator naming Soros
back when i took the 7 there was a lot on munis as well
i think they had a bad earnings number which is what prompted them to criticize the NFL which is why Anglin endorsed them which prompted them to disavow us
@SamanthaM what do you do for work?
nice i work in RE, previously worked at an ibank where i needed my 7 and 63
i wouldn't touch that shit @John O - it is pure speculation with (to my knowledge) no underlying demand drivers
@SamanthaM DM'ed you
Now we have to get him on the issue of black crime in America
@Rayder red. Hence the term red man or redskin
Anyone here use dirpy to download music from youtube? @here
i am having trouble downloading complete songs on dirpy.. it'll download the first 30-60 secs of a song but thats it
it used to download the entire song perfectly fine
@Tim - NH not sure about podcasts but reddit has some good finance related sections. If you are having trouble understand what a topic is you can always post the thread here and we can review/discuss
@this_that5553 buy a broad based vanguard mutual fund. They have the lowest fee structure. Aim to choose a fund with broad exposure to the market rather than something sector specific. That’s how you eliminate company or industry specific risk.
You won’t become a billionaire overnight but I believe in avg the market appreciates ~7% per year so you can do the math as to how much you’ll make overtime given your contribution level and expected date of withdrawl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xmi-GtBG5vw @everyone Spencer gives a good take on bitcoin that I agree with 100%. The jist is people are buying bitcoin to sell bitcoin they don't actually want to hold it they just want to flip it and make money off of it. Anyone who is holding bitcoin should carefully consider how a 50-90% decrease in price would make them feel. I suggest you sell your holdings.
@ThisIsChris congrats on the nice gains. i wouldn't leave anything on the table that youre not comfortable with losing. i wish i could be more optimistic about BTC but i have no way of valuing this currency so i have no way of telling if its over or undervalued. if this were a company we could do a discounted cash flow analysis or compare its PE ratio to peers and have a better understanding as to its valuation. i was talking to @Deleted User about this earlier but i believe BTC is rising off of the "Greater Fool Theory" also look up the Holland Tulip Mania. I would not be surprised if it plays out similarly. We shall see
@Deleted User i got into lending club back in 2014. I stopped buying notes about 2-3 years ago because i had an inordinate amount of defaults. i used a screen on what used to be called nickelsteamroller.com that showed very low default rates. the defaults in my portfolio exceeded what i thought i should have had by a lot. my return was about a 6% or so (according to them - which is higher than what it actually should be). with the risk of fraud and abuse, the understanding that the company makes money off of originations (incentive to make loans at any cost - even to those who shouldn't get loans), and lack of liquidity(I need a higher return than 6% for the lack of liquidity) I have decided to discontinue investing in LC notes. If you are looking for a 6% or so yield with good liquidity i can point you to some preferred stock
@Why Tea CLNS-J, AHT-I, TWO-C. Those are all the ones I am in.. they all yield ~7%
@ThisIsChris i certainly understand the demand for wanting to transact in crypto currencies but it just seems like a lot of buying and selling. i know very little about the FOREX markets and have a very rudimentary understanding of what causes currency appreciation and depreciation. But people must store their wealth in certain currencies (not everyone is going to hold 100% gold) and those currencies are usually of more stable countries (USD, Euro, GBP, JPY, CHF). I do not see BTC as stable. If you want to liken it to commodities, metals in particular, you have gold which central banks will hold and individuals will hold as a store of value. there is clear demand for long term ownership as it is agreed gold is a store of value. take an industrial metal like copper or silver. these metals have an end use. ie: they are consumed. Also new supply is important to consider as well. How is BTC created?
@ThisIsChris interesting. this concept sounds a little foreign to me. the idea of computing power needed to keep the bitcoin network going. or is that tech jargon for essentially being a market maker (which is what you described in an above paragraph)?
@Deleted User i guess i dont understand why computational proof of work is needed? is it in the same concept as having to physically mine for gold or silver?
odd i thought almost all europeans knew english. especially younger ones and those in western europe
Why do you want a volatile security?
@Deleted User are you saying you want something more speculative? i would buy individual stocks
Shall we enlighten these cucks?
@ThisIsChris yes split out crypto currency related conversation from all other finance
@ThisIsChris I think I can help you with that
we are absolutely in a bubble. Its being driven by low interest rates (cheap money) that are driving up asset prices well above the rate of wage growth
"Delinquencies on subprime auto loans made by non-bank lenders have been soaring for years, with the rate now approaching 10%."
@John O - thats the million dollar question that we all wish we knew. there is no sure fire way other than holding 100% cash. Other than that, pick a selection of broad based and diversified ETFs/mutual funds while keeping a portion of your savings in cash. Manage the % cash in your portfolio based on how optimistic you are about the stock market. it is very tough to call the top in the market
@ThisIsChris thats a good question as well. To determine what the next situation may be like I think we need to examine what caused the last two. From my limited understanding of the 2001 recession, it was in manufacturing and largely unfelt by most of the country. The 2008 recession was obv felt by everyone. imo, the #1 factor that caused the recession was people getting loans they shouldn't have gotten (subprime - who are mostly minorities). this caused asset price inflation in housing (values far exceeded intrinsic value). money was somewhat cheap and was most certainly easy to attain. all of the fall out that came through defaulting derivatives and lehman going under was due to the pop in the housing market bubble, making it the origin of the crisis, imo. The housing market is a VERY large asset class. If we were going to go through a similarly painful recession, I'd venture to say we will have to have a similarly sized asset class burst. let's talk about different asset classes, their size, and propensity to burst.
Does anyone know why I cant C+P from word?
not trying to retype all of that
The subprime auto loan market is doing poorly (10% default currently). While I think even a slight 2001 style recession would send the default rate up dramatically, this market is not large enough to cause serious systemic damage. The next asset class that is pretty large (over $1 trillion i believe) is the student loan market. From what I understand, you cannot discharge student loans in bankruptcy (both public and private loans). I am not exactly sure how the accounting would work for a financial institution who has made loans to students who have fallen behind on payment but if you have massive non payments by borrowers this could dramatically impact a firm's business operations which could result in 1) lower earning/decreased profitability, 2) pullback on lending, 3) something else I am unaware of. I do think the student loan market is resilience because 1) inability to default on payments, 2) parent cosigners. students are absolutely debt slaves but being a debt slave does not cause a massive recession. large numbers of people defaulting on payments at the same time does.
I was able to do it on my phone
Good question. Not exactly sure but I always thought they put in more mayo than what I would at home
It’s essentially our version of critical theory
@everyone if you have any interest in investing in 2018 read the below:
I have been thinking about 2018 as an investment year. I have come to the conclusion I think there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go up rather than down in 2018. As such I will be establishing a rather large position in the S&P 500 2x leveraged ETF ticker symbol: SSO. My thoughts are as follows: 1) I think the tax bill will provide substantial tailwinds for the economy. businesses are optimistic and will be more likely to provide employees with bonuses, higher wages, and increased hiring/more job security. consumer confidence has risen precipitously since trumps election and I believe it will continue to rise and stay high due to 1) more money in their paychecks, 2) better prospects for raises/promotions, 3) job security (due to companies hiring). The economy is ~70% consumption driven so it is always a good thing for the economy when consumers feel good about their economic prospects. the proverbial animal spirits are most certainly at play here.
How does this investment work? It’s a directional bet on the S&P 500 with 2x leverage. I think the S&P will go up rather than down in 2018 and I am buying this ETF to magnify my returns. Ex: lets say the S&P goes up 10% in 2018. This ETF will return 20% over the year. If I am wrong and the S&P goes down rather than up, remember, you’ll lose twice as much.
Who this investment is good for? 1) someone with an IRA who does not care about cash flow and will not be able to touch the money in 30+yrs, 2) someone with substantial resources who can afford to take risks. 3) someone willing to take on risk in general. Understand, if I am wrong, and the S&P decreases over 2018, you’ll lose twice as much as you would otherwise.
whats your thesis?
@ThisIsChris my theory is the s&p will go up in 2018 rather than down(reasons stated above). the ETF magnifies the % gain of the S&P. If you have good conviction the market will go up rather than down why not magnify your return if you are willing to take the risk?
in regards to options...
you can purchase a LEAP with an expiration of Jan 2019/Dec 2018. I do not have much insight to those strategies so really can provide much color
i would say dont drop them all at once or else i think a lot of people would scroll past.. drop like 1 or 2 a day
@Tanner - SC i have a lot of the same concerns as you in regards to the easy money policies. it will be interesting to see at what pace the fed raises interest rates. i do think trump will be successful with actually getting some inflation. i suppose this could prompt the fed to raise rates although i'd rather see them sell off their MBS portfolio which will steepen the yield curve. we are absolutely in a bubble. current valuations from everything from stocks to hard assets has gotten out of control and is certainly in excess of intrinsic value. asset prices are being kept up by easy money and low interest rates. the only question is what will cause the bubble to pop and when
yes we will have to watch for the cadence of rate increases
"It may very well have been an attempt to bait the Mayor of Minneapolis into having this kind of response..."
@ThisIsChris in terms of option strategies I only utilize them in one way. If I see a company that is going into earning where expectations are low (perhaps the stock has sold off quite dramatically prior to earnings). I will buy at the money calls for the front month contract (earnings date is in Jan. 2018, I will buy option contract with expiration in Jan 2018 assuming it does not expire prior to the earnings date). My plan is always to exit the position the day of earnings whether I am right or wrong. My goal being to take advantage of any volatility that was present itself. Time decay is not on my side here so i try to minimize that risk.
I did this with GIII prior to their recent earnings and made out well
What strategies do you use?
thats an interesting thought
buying the dec 2018 295 strike is ~$2.60. that implies 10% appreciation over 2018
@ThisIsChris so heres my thought as to how we will figure out a price target. we need forward earnings predictions and then apply a reasonable multiple to it. that will allow us to back into our price target.
we are essentially taking earnings predictions and applying a multiple to it. the trick with the multiple is we need to assess if it could compress or expand
according to that the S&P is trading at 21x P/E
which is very rich.. historically the S&P trades at ~15x
@ThisIsChris its really about reversion to the mean and from this vantage point it means go down
individual stock research is a lot of work and even with all the research there could be something you just miss or never thought about that tanks the stock.. it could be bad or greedy management.. which for us would be tough for us to be privy to
i used to pick stocks and i did not do very well and it was mostly due to stock specific issues so i changed to pick sectors or invest in income producing securities like preferred stock
yeah my issue with that is i have no idea when the market will tank. i know we are in a bubble but it seems like trump and everyone else in congress is deadset on blowing it until it pops on its own. i am not about to be short this market it just seems like their is too much momentum with the tax bill etc. it'd be like shorting the market in 2005/2006 imo
@Deleted User what catalyst do you see for a nose dive?
@ThisIsChris i am seeing dec 2018 295 strike calls sell at ~2.6. i dont think thats enough premium for me to hold for a year with unlimited loss potential
@Deleted User war is a possibility with NK no question. What would pop the bubble?
i am expecting rate hikes from the fed.. i think cadence of rate increases is key
too many rate hikes, too quickly will spell disater
lenders get frightened? i can see that happening. what would cause them to get frightened?
i 100% agree that consumers are buying on credit rather than actual money they are earning
i get a lot of my student loan info from zerohedge
@ThisIsChris at work we talk about this stuff a lot. that seeking alpha link was something i knew intuitively (subprime auto defaults) but didn't know an actual %. there are a lot of people in SoFl with nicer cars than me and I know damn well they do not make as much money as I do.
student loans I knew about by reading zerohedge. i have also heard anecdotal stories of high debt loads and parent cosigners (you remember cannoliqueen?)
we understand recessions happen every 8 or so years.. the last one was in 2009
we are about due for one. i know the market is frothy and not just the stock market but the RE market as well
its not a question of if but when and what will trigger it
my position is the tax cut will kick out the possibility for a recession a few years. i dont think it'll happen until after trumps reelection
if we look at 2008's recession that was triggered because you had this massive asset class getting bid up in price with easy money (teaser interest rates, very high LTV (loan to value), no doc/no income loans, subprime borrowing, diversity programs for home loans, etc.). and of course you had some predatory practices such as adjustable rate mortgages amongst other things.
the financials crisis could have been avoided if they would have done: 1) require 20% down payment no matter what, 2) require documentation as to the borrower's job and current income. and of course forget about the other social engineering bullshit
poeple like to blame the financial sector for the financial instruments that were created. that only became an issue because the paper they were securitizing was worthless. if the loans were quality loans then that all would have been fine and you never would have had all the defaults and bankruptcies you saw
we are simply trying to kick around some ideas as to what will cause the next recession
it could be an asset price bubble that pops or it could be the fed raising rates to quickly
if trump is successful with cutting immigration you will have upward pressure on wages which will help kick the can down the road. i do think he will be successful here and i do think you will see upward pressure on wages. again, all of this will help
the technical definition of a recession is two or more quarters of negative GDP growth
i am hopeful at the state of the union trump will talk abut the need for immigration reform
i think the next recession will probably be more akin to 2009 because the boom will have gone on for ~11 or so years. will it be as bad? i dont think so but it wont just be a blip either
yes, i believe student loan defaults may be a lagging indicator of job losses
i wonder if we go thru a period of rapid automation (self driving cars, bank tellers, fast food cashiers, other job??) if the fall out for low IQ people will be so bad to cause a recession
the question is what would come before job losses?
interest rates being too high and companies being unable to get investment project expected returns to pencil?
it means to get numbers to make sense to the point where you'd want to invest
if a company needs a 20% IRR (internal rate of return) and getting to 20% requires a discount rate of say 2% but the discount rate is at 3%. the numbers arent going to pencil
sound good man good night
@Deleted User you will see big deflation in interest rate sensitive assets. this will be especially pronounced in RE notably single family homes. that is assuming rates rise rapidly over a short period of time. if we have gradual rate hikes over a decade or so and stabilize at a more normal level you will see a stagnant decade of home price appreciation but you will not see a rapid fall out in prices
depends on what type
and where of course
buybacks have historically been a poor use of capital for firms over time. as an investor i always like seeing it because it shrinks the available supply of stock available which means prices go up in the near term (all else holding equal)
i think the only drawback could be if they took out a lot of debt to fund those buybacks and having that heavy debt load gets them into trouble when the economy eventually tanks
itll be something that prolongs the recession rather than drives us to it imo
an example being in 2008 what caused the recession was giving loans to anyone who was willing to sign their name. what prolonged the recessions were all the derivatives that went bad that caused banks and other financial institutions to go bankrupt
yup although companies are much better managers of money than individuals so my hope is they will be able to handle their maturity schedule and not overleverage themselves especially not after 2008/2009
many companies had issues with having enough cash
would be nice if we could do a vote on the 1st book
it would also be nice if there are free PDFs available if those were posted
can you please make a 'real estate' section under business. i have a few i'd like to post
The Book on Rental Property Investing: How to Create Wealth and Passive Income Through Smart Buy & Hold Real Estate Investing. Brandon Turner from biggerpockets.com. great book on RE investing that i have yet to read
The Book on Investing in Real Estate with No (and Low) Money Down: Real Life Strategies for Investing in Real Estate Using Other People's Money. Brandon Turner form biggerpockets.com
The Book on Managing Rental Properties: A Proven System for Finding, Screening, and Managing Tenants with Fewer Headaches and Maximum Profits. Brandon Turner of biggerpockets.com. great book from the prospective how to manage your properties.
The Book on Tax Strategies for the Savvy Real Estate Investor: Powerful techniques anyone can use to deduct more, invest smarter, and pay far less to the IRS! Amanda Han from biggerpockets.com. great book on tax strategies for RE investors
The Book on Estimating Rehab Costs: The Investor's Guide to Defining Your Renovation Plan, Building Your Budget, and Knowing Exactly How Much It All Costs. J Scott of biggerpockets.com. If you plan to flip houses you will need to be able to accurately price out your flip. this will help you get an idea of costs
The Book on Flipping Houses: How to Buy, Rehab, and Resell Residential Properties. J Scott from biggerpockets.com. general how-to on home flipping
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