RI is a unique situation

Fung has been extremely close in the polling against the democrat, which is far more than anything else we can hope for in RI by what I've seen

That's simply because people hate Raimondo

She's on her way out, that's what I see it as

As for the whole "liberal but with lower taxes" thing, Patricia Morgan, Fung's GOP opponent, isnt that much more conservative, at least in terms of social. It's just that her track record as minority leader is much more consistently conservative than that of Fung when he was mayor

In a perfect world I'd want Joe Trillo to be governor though his running as an independent is an issue

The issue is that in polling against Raimodo, no one can get near double-digits near here except for Fung

Fung has managed to top Raimodo in a couple of polls, in a state like RI, we really don't get stuff like that very often whatsoever

Dont those polls not include Trillo?

Because Trillo may pull a Healey and fuck the GOP candidate over

They do include Trillo in them, yes

I see.

Raimondo's support hovers over 40-44% in the polls, regardless of the GOP candidate she's paired up against

It's simply a long shot as is, just understanding that we can't really be ideological about who we pick in a very liberal state like RI if they have decent chances

What matters for the GOP candidate is appealing to both undecided voters and Trump Populists

That is true however we cant choose a lousy candidate either

Granted no matter what, the most a GOP governor will do is stop liberal legislation

However we cannot choose one with a corrupt background either

Unless your Buddy, RIP 😥

93% - NRA for 2014, he even opposed the red flag bill!
He supports right to work legislation.
Definitely the best we're gonna get in a solid blue state. https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/417896427713200138/483840523606556692/unknown.png?width=1195&height=437

Trillo needs to not split the vote for Fung.

He needs to leave the race or it'll go to Raimondo.

While facts and statistics are important, I base a lot on the judgement of people off my gut

Couple nights ago I went to a GOP fundraiser, both Fung and Patricia were there

Fung seemed too..... robotic, I guess you could say. Very professional about everything, which is good, however Patricia seemed much more outgoing and natural

Fung's son was also a bit unmannered which says about parenting

I mean, in a state like RI beggars cant be choosers

Though stuff like this still is valid

Flipping places like Rhode Island and Connecticut would be big morale boosters. We can do well in the governor's race to offset House losses and potential Senate roadbumps.

I know a guy who's real active in CT politics

Apparently there's a real high chance that the governorship and state senate will be flipped red

And given how Malloy is, that's not surprising

@Vaghar Why do people in RI and CT hate their governors so much?

@Nuke To be blunt, theyre full of shit

Raimondo is attributing all the economic progress to herself even though it's all progress that would've happened without her, specifically EB in Quonset

She's trying to set up tolls all along Route 95 for truckers and her general infrastructure program is shady

Funny because we don't even have tolls in Louisiana--only oil taxes.

We abolished the tolls on our last toll bridge a few years ago (but we're about to get the new one right in my hometown, FML)

Theyre also for pedestrian drivers?

Yeah

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:

Florida: Tossup to Lean Republican

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/7wkX

@Pielover19 How do you justify the GOP lean on OH?

This is governors race.

Oh, I know.

Cordray is ahead of DeWine in polling though.

No polls since June.

And it's not like these polls have been accurate so far.

I see.

It seems the trump train is steaming ahead

Keyword seems

I'd say tilt personally.

We honestly don't have much data from this race. Especially data since he called DeWine a Nazi.

Lots of events in this race with no new polling!

@Pielover19 Michigan should be tilt democrat.

Pretty sure like every poll has the democrat ahead.

>called DeWine a Nazi

Updating

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/OZG2

@Nuke Look Man I don't wanna say your michigan is a meme but

Your Michigan is a meme

IL on point though.

Michigan is Tilt Democrat.

@zakattack04

Well, the RCP avg. is 8.2+ with the most GOP favourable poll being +5 for the Democrat.

I'd say it's a Democrat lean/likely.

@Pielover19 then why is it tilt republican on his graph was my point

Seems like wishful thinking

@zakattack04 A big part of why is that Snyder, one of America's least popular Governors, was defeated in the primary--word hasn't spread that his faction of the MIGOP was defeated yet.

So why is it tilt red

Because we don't have incumbent advantage anymore

@Nuke

because the Senate race is increasingly looking good for Republicans, and voters in the area are tending to prefer Republican governors over Democrats governors, at least at the state level

If you say so

I think you're going to realize it's not that good but we'll see

Im in class so I gotta brb

Statistically speaking, the presence ofJohn James on the ballot should actually impact the black vote substantially.

especially considering Trump's relatively high approval ratings among blacks

I might have to off myself if Stacey (Goblin Queen) Abrams ends up being my governor

I'm a kemp voter, got to go to the Pence Kemp rally and see the Lighting Man in person

The best part is that this site is more neutral.
https://3rdrailpolitics.com/article/1413

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:
Illinois: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat (R.I.P <:chocolatemilkdiversityman:425743504853958666> )

Michigan: Tilt Democrat to Lean Democrat

New Mexico: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/wLpX

COLORADO NO

MICHIGAN WTF

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/VVgE

>Michigan not lean democrat
>Pennsylvania not likely democrat
>Wisconsin not tossup
Money for nothing.

Too bad the Montana and North Carolina governors aren't running for reeelection because those would be easy Republican pickups.

Also how come Georgia is safe democrat?

republican*

lmao

I mean if you're going to tilt Connecticut to the Rs, may as well do it with Rhode Island

@zakattack04 idk if Georgia is safe, I would say Likely Republican

Yeah, that's my point lmao.

PRetty sure Ohio should be lean also.

@zakattack04 This is the best possible scenario

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/ow5O

Yeah, that I agree with, for best realisticly possible outcome.

> Ohio
> lean

The Democrat candidate sucks and he’s in scandal

@Rhodesiaboo Scandals don't effect democrats.

Only republicans.

Remember Cliton.

bro

what

Bill won ez

Yeah

I was talking about Bill.

ah

Lmao that scandal family.

Yeah.

Economy is #1 :)

(((they))) did their job.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/kp8G

Georgia is not safe

There's also no evidence that FL is a tilt.

+ Ohio as likely a GOP take as Arizona? no.

And a tilt for WI and IA? What objective reasoning can support these predictions??

There's not even GOP internals that predict these.

You'll be in for a rude awakening if those are your genuine predictions.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/l7gL

Oops, I accidentally said Georgia & Oklahoma were safe, yeah.

Also, I put lean for Iowa & Wisconsin.

Also, as for Iowa, it's largely trends-based. They support Trump, and it's extremely unlikely that soy farmers will revolt on non-federal ballots.

@[Lex] I don't think he's basing these on polls

in fact

I'm pretty sure he isn't

I tihnk he's using his intuition

and knowledge of how each state is

Indeed.

Ohio is also more pro-Trump than Arizona.

if I based it on polls as they are right now

I'd be predicting le blue wave

but....no point doing so

Plus a lot of these states are data deficient, poll-wise, anyway

let's see what the polls are in Late October and November 1-5

If I see one Emerson poll saying Iowa is leaning blue, not only am I not going to take it seriously, but most of the poll analysts aren't actually taking it seriously either.

Emerson is even mocked by the libtards on US Election Atlas and PredictIt

they call it 'memerson'

They got it close in OH-12...but

but...that was probably because they just copied Monmouth

lol

Indeed, lol.

I factored polls into a few of these races actually, but not all.

I think they deliberately wait until an actual polling firm does something, and then they release a new poll close to the election, that's deliberately close to the other poll

Oklahoma is purely poll-based, for instance; its Governor has low approval.

their polls that are held long before an election are probably pulled out of their ey ess ess

Yep.

Emerson, Gravis and various other polls are truly shit.

But Marist, Surveyusa, Rasmussen and so on are more reliable.

I mean if you're going to mark Michigan as a tilt R and Ohio as a likely R, you may as well mark NV as tilt R as well

Nevada is increasingly Hispanic; Trump lost there and the situation has only gotten worse due to liberal Californians entering the state; polls suggest that Heller has a better chance.

Laxalt's the guy running, he's in a political dynasty over there, and he's won over half the polls over there

Definitely a lot more likely he wins than Heller

Regardless, both races are in the margin of error.

(PPP & Laxalt internal polls claim that their respective candidates have exited said margins of error, however.)

Thus, they are tossups**.

Yep, they're tilts.

NV - tossup, AZ tilt-lean GOP, MI tilt-lean Dem, OH tossup, Georgia tossup

Toss-up GA is ridiculous.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-6628.html

Arizona voted 3% for Trump after DECADES of voting GOP. The electorate is changing.

I still think Kemp will win but a tilt is inconsistent.

They voted for Clinton in 1996.

apply the same principles to democrats as you do gop

Yes, his was an exception.

Hillary was targetting Arizona heavily in 2016

Yes, also they voted GOP in 1992, and they voted GOP in the Reagan era (1980-1988)

And in 1976, the Democrats ran a guy who had really bad gaffes and lost virtually all of his popularity in the West because he didn't know how to manage Western water in the desert.

In 1968 and 1972, the Republicans won in landslides, like in 1980 and 1984.

And Kyrsten Sinema is also possibly flipping one of the senate seats.

So this is changing electorate and based Hispanics aren't voting GOP.

Furthermore, in 1964, the Republicans won because it was the home state of their candidate, who narrowly won Maricopa County.

And in 1960, it was a very close election--which arguably had Nixon win the popular vote

In 1952 and 1956, the GOP won in landslides again, too.

Arizona even voted Goldwater against Johnson.

And Georgia only voted +5 for Trump.

Yeah, and then they elected Goldwater as Senator. Oh yeah, and he was Senator there before that, too.

So what?

It's projected to be plurality black by 2050 and blacks are a high turnout group.

The point is that Georgia being a gubernatorial tossup isn't strange.

Esp. when that candidate is a black woman running on a gibs platform.

With Stacey on the ballot, yes it is.

ESPECIALLY when it's the midterms and a GOP is in control of the presidency.

It doesn't make sense with historical Southern trends.

All trends favour a tossup.

It makes sense because of demographic change.

Southerners tend to prefer candidates who are socially conservative.

And energised Democratic turnout across the country, routinely achieving the highest turnout in history.

Or fiscally conservative, or both

Virginia is considered "Southern" also.

What happened to it?

It changed demographically.

and also Southerners prefer white Democrats

+ Georgia isn't like Alabama or Louisiana.

Virginia has tons of suburbs of Washington DC filled with federal agents.

It's more urbanised.

I'm thinking of North Carolina and Florida too.

Even Florida doesn't elect anything worse than a moderate Democrat

FL also is a tossup or do you think it's a shoe-in for DeSantis too?

Because it's NOT.

I marked it as a tilt.

These are highly competitive races now.

That's what "tilt" means

you can't even justify a tilt

no data supports it

just your hunch

Primary polling suggests that DeSantis will do well in many Hispanic areas where Republicans have historically won majorities among nonwhites/Hispanics as recently as the latest Presidential election.

And GOP primary turnout in 2012 was much higher than the Democrats and yet they lost.

Primary turnout isn't a very effective predictor in Florida.

+ Hispanics tend to have very low levels of turnout in primaries.

Blacks remember

+ blacks are at very high turnout levels rn and most FL Democrats are mobilised. I don't think the primary turnout has ever been this close between Democrats and Republicans.

Georgia is only 53% White

Georgia also has a growing Hispanic population also.

>primary turnout in 2012

The point was to suggest that primary turnout is not an effective predictor.

Did Democrats even know they were holding primaries in 2012?

Bill Nelson also won in 2012 despite much lower primary turnout than his opponent.

Nelson won big too.

This is a fucking midterm, and needless to say, I wasn't speaking only of turnout but of Hispanics voting for DeSantis.

So we have the following factors working against us:
1. Extremely high Democratic turnout
2. Black Democratic nominee to energise blacks even more
3. Midterms with a Republican in office
4. A moderate state with the GOP candidate not viewed as moderate (the same deal with the Democrat opponent)
5. An electorate increasingly swarmed by minority voters
6. 4/5 polls suggesting Gillum will win

A la tossup.

Either way, this is unquestionably a nail-biting election.

Maybe if we're lucky Florence will annihilate the Democratic areas of the east coast and we sweep.

Yep, working as hard as possible to fight all of that

These are all nationwide indicators.

Except 2

The niggers can't beat us if we make up for it with whites

Plus you don't factor anything I cited obviously

Gillum is definitely farther left than DeSantis is farther right thankfully, I'm doing my absolute hardest to drive that home

I factored in all of the indicators working AGAINST us. The ones which favour us are already cited. They collide to form a tossup.

I think of this election as a pure tossup

I am working to get every last vote from every reliable person I know

Every vote counts

2010 census data says that GA is 55% NH white by the way.

And its black population is relatively low due to Hispanics

This is a state where my actions could decide the election

Indeed.

I had a friend who promoted Kobach too.

It's definitely not unheard of for an election to be close enough for one person to make a difference.

@FLanon Are your parents Spanish speakers?

If so, you should see if you can get them to contact some of the Cuban cultural centres in Florida to get votes.