And Georgia only voted +5 for Trump.

Yeah, and then they elected Goldwater as Senator. Oh yeah, and he was Senator there before that, too.

So what?

It's projected to be plurality black by 2050 and blacks are a high turnout group.

The point is that Georgia being a gubernatorial tossup isn't strange.

Esp. when that candidate is a black woman running on a gibs platform.

With Stacey on the ballot, yes it is.

ESPECIALLY when it's the midterms and a GOP is in control of the presidency.

It doesn't make sense with historical Southern trends.

All trends favour a tossup.

It makes sense because of demographic change.

Southerners tend to prefer candidates who are socially conservative.

And energised Democratic turnout across the country, routinely achieving the highest turnout in history.

Or fiscally conservative, or both

Virginia is considered "Southern" also.

What happened to it?

It changed demographically.

and also Southerners prefer white Democrats

+ Georgia isn't like Alabama or Louisiana.

Virginia has tons of suburbs of Washington DC filled with federal agents.

It's more urbanised.

I'm thinking of North Carolina and Florida too.

Even Florida doesn't elect anything worse than a moderate Democrat

FL also is a tossup or do you think it's a shoe-in for DeSantis too?

Because it's NOT.

I marked it as a tilt.

These are highly competitive races now.

That's what "tilt" means

you can't even justify a tilt

no data supports it

just your hunch

Primary polling suggests that DeSantis will do well in many Hispanic areas where Republicans have historically won majorities among nonwhites/Hispanics as recently as the latest Presidential election.

And GOP primary turnout in 2012 was much higher than the Democrats and yet they lost.

Primary turnout isn't a very effective predictor in Florida.

+ Hispanics tend to have very low levels of turnout in primaries.

Blacks remember

+ blacks are at very high turnout levels rn and most FL Democrats are mobilised. I don't think the primary turnout has ever been this close between Democrats and Republicans.

Georgia is only 53% White

Georgia also has a growing Hispanic population also.

>primary turnout in 2012

The point was to suggest that primary turnout is not an effective predictor.