Message from @Nuke
Discord ID: 489567473977524224
Lmao that scandal family.
Yeah.
Economy is #1 :)
(((they))) did their job.
Georgia is not safe
There's also no evidence that FL is a tilt.
+ Ohio as likely a GOP take as Arizona? no.
And a tilt for WI and IA? What objective reasoning can support these predictions??
There's not even GOP internals that predict these.
You'll be in for a rude awakening if those are your genuine predictions.
Oops, I accidentally said Georgia & Oklahoma were safe, yeah.
Also, I put lean for Iowa & Wisconsin.
Also, as for Iowa, it's largely trends-based. They support Trump, and it's extremely unlikely that soy farmers will revolt on non-federal ballots.
@[Lex] I don't think he's basing these on polls
in fact
I'm pretty sure he isn't
I tihnk he's using his intuition
and knowledge of how each state is
Ohio is also more pro-Trump than Arizona.
if I based it on polls as they are right now
I'd be predicting le blue wave
but....no point doing so
Plus a lot of these states are data deficient, poll-wise, anyway
let's see what the polls are in Late October and November 1-5
If I see one Emerson poll saying Iowa is leaning blue, not only am I not going to take it seriously, but most of the poll analysts aren't actually taking it seriously either.
Emerson is even mocked by the libtards on US Election Atlas and PredictIt
they call it 'memerson'
They got it close in OH-12...but
but...that was probably because they just copied Monmouth
lol
Indeed, lol.
I factored polls into a few of these races actually, but not all.
I think they deliberately wait until an actual polling firm does something, and then they release a new poll close to the election, that's deliberately close to the other poll
Oklahoma is purely poll-based, for instance; its Governor has low approval.
their polls that are held long before an election are probably pulled out of their ey ess ess
Yep.
Emerson, Gravis and various other polls are truly shit.
But Marist, Surveyusa, Rasmussen and so on are more reliable.