Yeah.

Economy is #1 :)

(((they))) did their job.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/kp8G

Georgia is not safe

There's also no evidence that FL is a tilt.

+ Ohio as likely a GOP take as Arizona? no.

And a tilt for WI and IA? What objective reasoning can support these predictions??

There's not even GOP internals that predict these.

You'll be in for a rude awakening if those are your genuine predictions.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/l7gL

Oops, I accidentally said Georgia & Oklahoma were safe, yeah.

Also, I put lean for Iowa & Wisconsin.

Also, as for Iowa, it's largely trends-based. They support Trump, and it's extremely unlikely that soy farmers will revolt on non-federal ballots.

@[Lex] I don't think he's basing these on polls

in fact

I'm pretty sure he isn't

I tihnk he's using his intuition

and knowledge of how each state is

Indeed.

Ohio is also more pro-Trump than Arizona.

if I based it on polls as they are right now

I'd be predicting le blue wave

but....no point doing so

Plus a lot of these states are data deficient, poll-wise, anyway

let's see what the polls are in Late October and November 1-5

If I see one Emerson poll saying Iowa is leaning blue, not only am I not going to take it seriously, but most of the poll analysts aren't actually taking it seriously either.

Emerson is even mocked by the libtards on US Election Atlas and PredictIt

they call it 'memerson'

They got it close in OH-12...but

but...that was probably because they just copied Monmouth

lol

Indeed, lol.

I factored polls into a few of these races actually, but not all.

I think they deliberately wait until an actual polling firm does something, and then they release a new poll close to the election, that's deliberately close to the other poll

Oklahoma is purely poll-based, for instance; its Governor has low approval.

their polls that are held long before an election are probably pulled out of their ey ess ess

Yep.

Emerson, Gravis and various other polls are truly shit.

But Marist, Surveyusa, Rasmussen and so on are more reliable.

I mean if you're going to mark Michigan as a tilt R and Ohio as a likely R, you may as well mark NV as tilt R as well