Hillary was targetting Arizona heavily in 2016

Yes, also they voted GOP in 1992, and they voted GOP in the Reagan era (1980-1988)

And in 1976, the Democrats ran a guy who had really bad gaffes and lost virtually all of his popularity in the West because he didn't know how to manage Western water in the desert.

In 1968 and 1972, the Republicans won in landslides, like in 1980 and 1984.

And Kyrsten Sinema is also possibly flipping one of the senate seats.

So this is changing electorate and based Hispanics aren't voting GOP.

Furthermore, in 1964, the Republicans won because it was the home state of their candidate, who narrowly won Maricopa County.

And in 1960, it was a very close election--which arguably had Nixon win the popular vote

In 1952 and 1956, the GOP won in landslides again, too.

Arizona even voted Goldwater against Johnson.

And Georgia only voted +5 for Trump.

Yeah, and then they elected Goldwater as Senator. Oh yeah, and he was Senator there before that, too.

So what?

It's projected to be plurality black by 2050 and blacks are a high turnout group.

The point is that Georgia being a gubernatorial tossup isn't strange.

Esp. when that candidate is a black woman running on a gibs platform.

With Stacey on the ballot, yes it is.

ESPECIALLY when it's the midterms and a GOP is in control of the presidency.

It doesn't make sense with historical Southern trends.

All trends favour a tossup.

It makes sense because of demographic change.

Southerners tend to prefer candidates who are socially conservative.

And energised Democratic turnout across the country, routinely achieving the highest turnout in history.

Or fiscally conservative, or both

Virginia is considered "Southern" also.

What happened to it?

It changed demographically.

and also Southerners prefer white Democrats

+ Georgia isn't like Alabama or Louisiana.

Virginia has tons of suburbs of Washington DC filled with federal agents.

It's more urbanised.

I'm thinking of North Carolina and Florida too.

Even Florida doesn't elect anything worse than a moderate Democrat

FL also is a tossup or do you think it's a shoe-in for DeSantis too?

Because it's NOT.

I marked it as a tilt.

These are highly competitive races now.

That's what "tilt" means

you can't even justify a tilt

no data supports it