if I based it on polls as they are right now

I'd be predicting le blue wave

but....no point doing so

Plus a lot of these states are data deficient, poll-wise, anyway

let's see what the polls are in Late October and November 1-5

If I see one Emerson poll saying Iowa is leaning blue, not only am I not going to take it seriously, but most of the poll analysts aren't actually taking it seriously either.

Emerson is even mocked by the libtards on US Election Atlas and PredictIt

they call it 'memerson'

They got it close in OH-12...but

but...that was probably because they just copied Monmouth

lol

Indeed, lol.

I factored polls into a few of these races actually, but not all.

I think they deliberately wait until an actual polling firm does something, and then they release a new poll close to the election, that's deliberately close to the other poll

Oklahoma is purely poll-based, for instance; its Governor has low approval.

their polls that are held long before an election are probably pulled out of their ey ess ess

Yep.

Emerson, Gravis and various other polls are truly shit.

But Marist, Surveyusa, Rasmussen and so on are more reliable.

I mean if you're going to mark Michigan as a tilt R and Ohio as a likely R, you may as well mark NV as tilt R as well

Nevada is increasingly Hispanic; Trump lost there and the situation has only gotten worse due to liberal Californians entering the state; polls suggest that Heller has a better chance.

Laxalt's the guy running, he's in a political dynasty over there, and he's won over half the polls over there

Definitely a lot more likely he wins than Heller

Regardless, both races are in the margin of error.

(PPP & Laxalt internal polls claim that their respective candidates have exited said margins of error, however.)

Thus, they are tossups**.

Yep, they're tilts.

NV - tossup, AZ tilt-lean GOP, MI tilt-lean Dem, OH tossup, Georgia tossup

Toss-up GA is ridiculous.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-6628.html

Arizona voted 3% for Trump after DECADES of voting GOP. The electorate is changing.

I still think Kemp will win but a tilt is inconsistent.

They voted for Clinton in 1996.

apply the same principles to democrats as you do gop

Yes, his was an exception.

Hillary was targetting Arizona heavily in 2016

Yes, also they voted GOP in 1992, and they voted GOP in the Reagan era (1980-1988)

And in 1976, the Democrats ran a guy who had really bad gaffes and lost virtually all of his popularity in the West because he didn't know how to manage Western water in the desert.

In 1968 and 1972, the Republicans won in landslides, like in 1980 and 1984.