@LLBacon#9794

I’d rather see run for pres than pence

I do believe there is a statistic that shows pedos are far more likely to be homos than straight

I thought it was good how you spoke about issues that republicans typically don’t talk or care about (environment, SS)

It shows there is an actual alternative to basic bitch conservatism

@Tyler0317 wow your mom is smart

^

never understood how someone could be a vegan

sounds like it defeats the purpose of being vegan/vegetarian

http://archive.is/GxOV4

DHS ends temporary residency program for 60K Haitians

https://www.a1apac.org/lp/america-first-litmus/

^Trump survey. Tell them you want to MAWA

https://www.infowars.com/soros-views-nation-state-as-problem-wants-one-world-government-solution-us-state-senator/

woke VA state senator naming Soros

back when i took the 7 there was a lot on munis as well

i think they had a bad earnings number which is what prompted them to criticize the NFL which is why Anglin endorsed them which prompted them to disavow us

@SamanthaM what do you do for work?

nice i work in RE, previously worked at an ibank where i needed my 7 and 63

http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/27/prince-harrys-fiancee-says-focus-on-mixed-race-background-is-disheartening/?utm_campaign=thedcpolitics&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social

get in the comments section

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/11/27/prince-harry-meghan-markle-announce-engagement/

based breitbart

i wouldn't touch that shit @John O - it is pure speculation with (to my knowledge) no underlying demand drivers

@SamanthaM DM'ed you

Now we have to get him on the issue of black crime in America

@Rayder red. Hence the term red man or redskin

Anyone here use dirpy to download music from youtube? @here

which ones are those?

i am having trouble downloading complete songs on dirpy.. it'll download the first 30-60 secs of a song but thats it

it used to download the entire song perfectly fine

@ThisIsChris @nils thanks. I have a macbook. it seems like the download on a macbook is complicated. do either of you have any other (easier) suggestions?

@Tim - NH not sure about podcasts but reddit has some good finance related sections. If you are having trouble understand what a topic is you can always post the thread here and we can review/discuss

@this_that5553 buy a broad based vanguard mutual fund. They have the lowest fee structure. Aim to choose a fund with broad exposure to the market rather than something sector specific. That’s how you eliminate company or industry specific risk.

You won’t become a billionaire overnight but I believe in avg the market appreciates ~7% per year so you can do the math as to how much you’ll make overtime given your contribution level and expected date of withdrawl

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xmi-GtBG5vw @everyone Spencer gives a good take on bitcoin that I agree with 100%. The jist is people are buying bitcoin to sell bitcoin they don't actually want to hold it they just want to flip it and make money off of it. Anyone who is holding bitcoin should carefully consider how a 50-90% decrease in price would make them feel. I suggest you sell your holdings.

@ThisIsChris congrats on the nice gains. i wouldn't leave anything on the table that youre not comfortable with losing. i wish i could be more optimistic about BTC but i have no way of valuing this currency so i have no way of telling if its over or undervalued. if this were a company we could do a discounted cash flow analysis or compare its PE ratio to peers and have a better understanding as to its valuation. i was talking to @Deleted User about this earlier but i believe BTC is rising off of the "Greater Fool Theory" also look up the Holland Tulip Mania. I would not be surprised if it plays out similarly. We shall see

@Deleted User i got into lending club back in 2014. I stopped buying notes about 2-3 years ago because i had an inordinate amount of defaults. i used a screen on what used to be called nickelsteamroller.com that showed very low default rates. the defaults in my portfolio exceeded what i thought i should have had by a lot. my return was about a 6% or so (according to them - which is higher than what it actually should be). with the risk of fraud and abuse, the understanding that the company makes money off of originations (incentive to make loans at any cost - even to those who shouldn't get loans), and lack of liquidity(I need a higher return than 6% for the lack of liquidity) I have decided to discontinue investing in LC notes. If you are looking for a 6% or so yield with good liquidity i can point you to some preferred stock

@Why Tea CLNS-J, AHT-I, TWO-C. Those are all the ones I am in.. they all yield ~7%

@ThisIsChris i certainly understand the demand for wanting to transact in crypto currencies but it just seems like a lot of buying and selling. i know very little about the FOREX markets and have a very rudimentary understanding of what causes currency appreciation and depreciation. But people must store their wealth in certain currencies (not everyone is going to hold 100% gold) and those currencies are usually of more stable countries (USD, Euro, GBP, JPY, CHF). I do not see BTC as stable. If you want to liken it to commodities, metals in particular, you have gold which central banks will hold and individuals will hold as a store of value. there is clear demand for long term ownership as it is agreed gold is a store of value. take an industrial metal like copper or silver. these metals have an end use. ie: they are consumed. Also new supply is important to consider as well. How is BTC created?

@ThisIsChris interesting. this concept sounds a little foreign to me. the idea of computing power needed to keep the bitcoin network going. or is that tech jargon for essentially being a market maker (which is what you described in an above paragraph)?

@Deleted User i guess i dont understand why computational proof of work is needed? is it in the same concept as having to physically mine for gold or silver?

odd i thought almost all europeans knew english. especially younger ones and those in western europe

Congrats!

Penny stocks?

Why do you want a volatile security?

@Deleted User are you saying you want something more speculative? i would buy individual stocks

https://www.facebook.com/EricJulyTX/photos/a.903991933001147.1073741828.896453500421657/1594339543966379/?type=3&theater

Shall we enlighten these cucks?

@ThisIsChris yes split out crypto currency related conversation from all other finance

@ThisIsChris I think I can help you with that

we are absolutely in a bubble. Its being driven by low interest rates (cheap money) that are driving up asset prices well above the rate of wage growth

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3319607-p-e-players-trouble-cashing-subprime-auto-plays

"Delinquencies on subprime auto loans made by non-bank lenders have been soaring for years, with the rate now approaching 10%."

@John O - thats the million dollar question that we all wish we knew. there is no sure fire way other than holding 100% cash. Other than that, pick a selection of broad based and diversified ETFs/mutual funds while keeping a portion of your savings in cash. Manage the % cash in your portfolio based on how optimistic you are about the stock market. it is very tough to call the top in the market

@ThisIsChris thats a good question as well. To determine what the next situation may be like I think we need to examine what caused the last two. From my limited understanding of the 2001 recession, it was in manufacturing and largely unfelt by most of the country. The 2008 recession was obv felt by everyone. imo, the #1 factor that caused the recession was people getting loans they shouldn't have gotten (subprime - who are mostly minorities). this caused asset price inflation in housing (values far exceeded intrinsic value). money was somewhat cheap and was most certainly easy to attain. all of the fall out that came through defaulting derivatives and lehman going under was due to the pop in the housing market bubble, making it the origin of the crisis, imo. The housing market is a VERY large asset class. If we were going to go through a similarly painful recession, I'd venture to say we will have to have a similarly sized asset class burst. let's talk about different asset classes, their size, and propensity to burst.

Does anyone know why I cant C+P from word?

not trying to retype all of that

yes

The subprime auto loan market is doing poorly (10% default currently). While I think even a slight 2001 style recession would send the default rate up dramatically, this market is not large enough to cause serious systemic damage. The next asset class that is pretty large (over $1 trillion i believe) is the student loan market. From what I understand, you cannot discharge student loans in bankruptcy (both public and private loans). I am not exactly sure how the accounting would work for a financial institution who has made loans to students who have fallen behind on payment but if you have massive non payments by borrowers this could dramatically impact a firm's business operations which could result in 1) lower earning/decreased profitability, 2) pullback on lending, 3) something else I am unaware of. I do think the student loan market is resilience because 1) inability to default on payments, 2) parent cosigners. students are absolutely debt slaves but being a debt slave does not cause a massive recession. large numbers of people defaulting on payments at the same time does.

I was able to do it on my phone

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-44354.html

get your T levels checked if you havent already

Good question. Not exactly sure but I always thought they put in more mayo than what I would at home

https://examine.com/

really good website to learn info about supplements

It’s essentially our version of critical theory

https://on.rt.com/8vok

@everyone if you have any interest in investing in 2018 read the below:

I have been thinking about 2018 as an investment year. I have come to the conclusion I think there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go up rather than down in 2018. As such I will be establishing a rather large position in the S&P 500 2x leveraged ETF ticker symbol: SSO. My thoughts are as follows: 1) I think the tax bill will provide substantial tailwinds for the economy. businesses are optimistic and will be more likely to provide employees with bonuses, higher wages, and increased hiring/more job security. consumer confidence has risen precipitously since trumps election and I believe it will continue to rise and stay high due to 1) more money in their paychecks, 2) better prospects for raises/promotions, 3) job security (due to companies hiring). The economy is ~70% consumption driven so it is always a good thing for the economy when consumers feel good about their economic prospects. the proverbial animal spirits are most certainly at play here.
How does this investment work? It’s a directional bet on the S&P 500 with 2x leverage. I think the S&P will go up rather than down in 2018 and I am buying this ETF to magnify my returns. Ex: lets say the S&P goes up 10% in 2018. This ETF will return 20% over the year. If I am wrong and the S&P goes down rather than up, remember, you’ll lose twice as much.
Who this investment is good for? 1) someone with an IRA who does not care about cash flow and will not be able to touch the money in 30+yrs, 2) someone with substantial resources who can afford to take risks. 3) someone willing to take on risk in general. Understand, if I am wrong, and the S&P decreases over 2018, you’ll lose twice as much as you would otherwise.

whats your thesis?

@ThisIsChris my theory is the s&p will go up in 2018 rather than down(reasons stated above). the ETF magnifies the % gain of the S&P. If you have good conviction the market will go up rather than down why not magnify your return if you are willing to take the risk?

in regards to options...

you can purchase a LEAP with an expiration of Jan 2019/Dec 2018. I do not have much insight to those strategies so really can provide much color

i would say dont drop them all at once or else i think a lot of people would scroll past.. drop like 1 or 2 a day

@Tanner - SC i have a lot of the same concerns as you in regards to the easy money policies. it will be interesting to see at what pace the fed raises interest rates. i do think trump will be successful with actually getting some inflation. i suppose this could prompt the fed to raise rates although i'd rather see them sell off their MBS portfolio which will steepen the yield curve. we are absolutely in a bubble. current valuations from everything from stocks to hard assets has gotten out of control and is certainly in excess of intrinsic value. asset prices are being kept up by easy money and low interest rates. the only question is what will cause the bubble to pop and when

yes we will have to watch for the cadence of rate increases

"It may very well have been an attempt to bait the Mayor of Minneapolis into having this kind of response..."

@ThisIsChris I think @Deleted User does as well

@ThisIsChris in terms of option strategies I only utilize them in one way. If I see a company that is going into earning where expectations are low (perhaps the stock has sold off quite dramatically prior to earnings). I will buy at the money calls for the front month contract (earnings date is in Jan. 2018, I will buy option contract with expiration in Jan 2018 assuming it does not expire prior to the earnings date). My plan is always to exit the position the day of earnings whether I am right or wrong. My goal being to take advantage of any volatility that was present itself. Time decay is not on my side here so i try to minimize that risk.

I did this with GIII prior to their recent earnings and made out well

What strategies do you use?

thats an interesting thought

buying the dec 2018 295 strike is ~$2.60. that implies 10% appreciation over 2018

@ThisIsChris so heres my thought as to how we will figure out a price target. we need forward earnings predictions and then apply a reasonable multiple to it. that will allow us to back into our price target.

we are essentially taking earnings predictions and applying a multiple to it. the trick with the multiple is we need to assess if it could compress or expand

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/holdings?p=SPY

according to that the S&P is trading at 21x P/E

which is very rich.. historically the S&P trades at ~15x

@ThisIsChris its really about reversion to the mean and from this vantage point it means go down

individual stock research is a lot of work and even with all the research there could be something you just miss or never thought about that tanks the stock.. it could be bad or greedy management.. which for us would be tough for us to be privy to

i used to pick stocks and i did not do very well and it was mostly due to stock specific issues so i changed to pick sectors or invest in income producing securities like preferred stock

yeah my issue with that is i have no idea when the market will tank. i know we are in a bubble but it seems like trump and everyone else in congress is deadset on blowing it until it pops on its own. i am not about to be short this market it just seems like their is too much momentum with the tax bill etc. it'd be like shorting the market in 2005/2006 imo

@Deleted User what catalyst do you see for a nose dive?

@ThisIsChris i am seeing dec 2018 295 strike calls sell at ~2.6. i dont think thats enough premium for me to hold for a year with unlimited loss potential

@Deleted User war is a possibility with NK no question. What would pop the bubble?

i am expecting rate hikes from the fed.. i think cadence of rate increases is key

too many rate hikes, too quickly will spell disater

lenders get frightened? i can see that happening. what would cause them to get frightened?