#noncrypto-investing (Discord ID: 352760194775777282) in MacGuyver - Skills & Academics, page 3

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2017-12-20 00:50:18 UTC

In fact, there's probably multiple better ones

2017-12-20 00:50:45 UTC

But I don't think Bitcoin will just crumble so quickly

2017-12-20 00:53:30 UTC

I'm just making the case that people need to start thinking about selling Bitcoin. The thing about bubbles is that it's a huge game of hot potato. If you're not holding the potato, you're fine.

2017-12-20 00:57:05 UTC

Should’ve fucking sold my BTC yesterday

2017-12-20 00:57:13 UTC


2017-12-20 00:57:47 UTC

It just plummeting 3,000 in an hour

2017-12-20 00:57:58 UTC

oh no nigga

2017-12-20 00:58:00 UTC

And the exchange is crashing

2017-12-20 00:58:11 UTC

Buy low sell high

2017-12-20 01:00:47 UTC

@⚡Clark⚡ relax dude, that's not too bad

2017-12-20 01:01:08 UTC

It plummets like this every week

2017-12-20 01:01:37 UTC

Bitcoin cash is on Coinbase now

2017-12-20 01:01:44 UTC

oh shit

2017-12-20 01:01:47 UTC

Fuck fuck fuckkkkk

2017-12-20 01:02:46 UTC

This app is trash

2017-12-20 01:03:08 UTC

Why is that bad?

2017-12-20 01:05:31 UTC

LMAO Bitcoin "crashed" back to what it was a week ago

2017-12-20 01:05:50 UTC

This happens so often and people flip out every time

2017-12-20 01:06:46 UTC

I had my Bitcoin on an offline wallet during the fork. Still need to figure out how to get my Bitcoin Cash.

2017-12-20 01:26:18 UTC


2017-12-20 01:53:38 UTC

the sustainability is definitely a concern. It becomes a moral issue at that point. And caring about efficiency is a white people problem

2017-12-20 02:05:43 UTC

Caring about efficiency is a societal problem. A currency will not be viable as such if it's not efficient, and the value will never transform from speculative into utilitarian

2017-12-20 02:11:02 UTC

What's going on with this Bitcoin Cash stuff?

2017-12-20 03:06:14 UTC

Look at the IE general chat.

2017-12-20 03:06:23 UTC

I just spent the last hour explaining Bitcoin Cash.

2017-12-20 03:06:44 UTC

I believe it is the future of crypto and bitcoin core will be replaced by bitcoin cash.

2017-12-20 08:37:15 UTC

Oh whoa

2017-12-20 08:37:45 UTC

Even if bitcoin keeps forking? @Tanner - SC

2017-12-20 15:08:40 UTC

@Matthias There is no need for further forking. BCH solved the only issue with BTC.

2017-12-20 16:20:11 UTC

You could fork BTC yourself, but no one would adopt it because it wouldn’t add any value.

2017-12-20 17:18:55 UTC

@Tanner - SC Does BCH solve the efficiency issue? Or does it still require the power of Ireland to run?

2017-12-20 17:19:46 UTC

f to btc

2017-12-20 17:20:01 UTC

i can't imagine peoples loss on this pullback

2017-12-20 20:31:42 UTC

@this_that5553 The "efficiency issue" is not an issue. BCH has the potential to replace VISA and PayPal and it uses FAR less manpower and energy than them.

2017-12-20 20:32:24 UTC

People talk smack because they can estimate the total power consumption of the biticoin network, but they can't easily estimate the total resource consumption of any fiat payment processor.

2017-12-20 20:33:48 UTC

No coiners btfo

2017-12-20 20:35:11 UTC

@Tanner - SC you said yourself that visa manages 24k transactions per second. BCH does 48

2017-12-20 20:40:57 UTC

BCH has a roadmap to scale. They started at 8 MB blocks to prove they won't cause collapse because many in the BTC community were convinced 8 MB would cause collapse. And it's an adjustable value in BCH, so the users at any time can increase the limit. And the developers have proposal for future updates to change the default adjustment from 8 to higher.

2017-12-20 22:08:45 UTC


2017-12-20 22:08:54 UTC

That pic...

2017-12-20 23:45:06 UTC

This is why Monero should be the default tbh

2017-12-21 00:06:27 UTC

These n00bs are just finding out Coinbase is cucky. Coinbase has been banning people for years. It's somewhat understandable because Coinbase doesn't want any negative PR nor do they want any retroactive regulation to bite them in the ass for any lax actions of the past, so they clamp down. It's stupid easy to work around. Just send the coins from Coinbase to a private wallet, then send the coins on to wherever you please.

2017-12-21 00:07:11 UTC

No one should be storing coins on coinbase anyway, that's just IOUs. Hold your crypto yourself.

2017-12-21 00:39:45 UTC

Here's a good phone app for storing BTC and BCH:

2017-12-21 02:36:31 UTC

I think I'll create a BCH wallet with that app

2017-12-21 02:37:20 UTC

Might be annoying to send coinbase funds to the wallet though. Somehow have to copy the wallet code from phone to desktop. Maybe via email, which defeats the purpose of being more secure

2017-12-21 03:35:40 UTC

@this_that5553 Use the coinbase phone app and then just copy/paste within your phone.

2017-12-21 15:18:51 UTC

@here should we split crypto vs non-crypto finance?

2017-12-21 15:24:33 UTC


2017-12-21 16:32:25 UTC

So, trying to get in on buying ripple, first coin im buying ever, complete noob, getting this set up is ridiculous.

2017-12-21 16:33:24 UTC

Dont know which exchange to use. Pretty sure im going to end up getting my identity stolen, everyone wants my social and what not. Plz halp.

2017-12-21 17:26:26 UTC
2017-12-21 17:42:04 UTC

No just ban nocoiners

2017-12-21 17:57:18 UTC

get out

2017-12-21 18:21:09 UTC

@ThisIsChris yes split out crypto currency related conversation from all other finance

2017-12-21 18:29:37 UTC

Yes we should split them

2017-12-21 18:44:01 UTC

Lol when the cryptos correct

2017-12-21 20:00:19 UTC

I made a new server, guys

2017-12-21 20:29:19 UTC


2017-12-21 20:29:41 UTC

coiners pls leave

2017-12-21 20:31:11 UTC

Mfw this channel still ends up being about crypto

2017-12-21 20:31:32 UTC

No more crypto conversation in here

2017-12-21 20:32:52 UTC

There's so many other finance topics to discuss that need a space: stocks, bonds, options, houses, business, tax-advantaged accounts, etc

2017-12-21 20:36:46 UTC

@Guillaume did you say crypto?

2017-12-21 20:36:59 UTC

For future people: this channel has a good history of noncrypto financial advice, you just have to search or scroll past the crypto stuff

2017-12-21 20:37:04 UTC

2017-12-22 21:41:05 UTC

Nocoiners unite!

2017-12-22 22:55:13 UTC

Aka no bubble chasers

2017-12-22 22:56:33 UTC

Muh scarcity != value

2017-12-23 09:01:27 UTC

Financial experts: (including @Tycho Brahe and @Zyzz and any other Financial experts I might have forgotton) I'm been learning about researching stocks, and while I've seen a lot of explanations and theoretical models, I've never seen an example of a fully written out report that an analyst might write about a stock. Does anyone know where I could see some? I don't care if they're outdated or w/e I just want to see what an end result would look like. More examples the better.

2017-12-23 11:58:04 UTC

@ThisIsChris I think I can help you with that

2017-12-23 12:00:43 UTC

@Zyzz Great, I would appreciate it

2017-12-23 14:50:17 UTC

MorningStar used to have some reports for free, I haven’t checked lately to see if they still do.

2017-12-23 14:52:34 UTC

I still check stock valuations on Morningstar for free.

2017-12-24 12:59:09 UTC

Your online broker may (usually does?) have access to reports from Morningstar, etc. Mine does.

2017-12-24 12:59:16 UTC


2017-12-24 12:59:20 UTC

`“You know you are in a bubble when the shoeshine boy starts giving financial advice and people take it seriously.”`

2017-12-24 13:00:40 UTC

we are absolutely in a bubble. Its being driven by low interest rates (cheap money) that are driving up asset prices well above the rate of wage growth

2017-12-24 13:01:47 UTC

"Delinquencies on subprime auto loans made by non-bank lenders have been soaring for years, with the rate now approaching 10%."

2017-12-24 13:46:51 UTC

@Zyzz How do I protect my savings for when the bubble pops? What's the likelihood of my investments taking a huge hit when the bubble pops?

2017-12-24 13:47:42 UTC

That's what I'm worried about, but I'm not even educated enough to properly express my concern

2017-12-24 13:50:41 UTC

@John O - thats the million dollar question that we all wish we knew. there is no sure fire way other than holding 100% cash. Other than that, pick a selection of broad based and diversified ETFs/mutual funds while keeping a portion of your savings in cash. Manage the % cash in your portfolio based on how optimistic you are about the stock market. it is very tough to call the top in the market

2017-12-24 18:12:48 UTC

@Zyzz my biggest Q about a likely bubble is: is it going to cause a 2001 style 3 month recession, or a 2008 utter nightmare?

2017-12-25 01:14:22 UTC

Also, 2008 is not as bad as it could get. It could get much worse.

2017-12-25 01:18:37 UTC

True but hard to grapple with mentally, wasn't 2008 the biggest recession since the Great Depression?

2017-12-25 02:17:54 UTC

@ThisIsChris thats a good question as well. To determine what the next situation may be like I think we need to examine what caused the last two. From my limited understanding of the 2001 recession, it was in manufacturing and largely unfelt by most of the country. The 2008 recession was obv felt by everyone. imo, the #1 factor that caused the recession was people getting loans they shouldn't have gotten (subprime - who are mostly minorities). this caused asset price inflation in housing (values far exceeded intrinsic value). money was somewhat cheap and was most certainly easy to attain. all of the fall out that came through defaulting derivatives and lehman going under was due to the pop in the housing market bubble, making it the origin of the crisis, imo. The housing market is a VERY large asset class. If we were going to go through a similarly painful recession, I'd venture to say we will have to have a similarly sized asset class burst. let's talk about different asset classes, their size, and propensity to burst.

2017-12-25 02:19:22 UTC

Does anyone know why I cant C+P from word?

2017-12-25 02:19:39 UTC

not trying to retype all of that

2017-12-25 02:23:31 UTC

@Zyzz you're on your computer, right? From Word on your computer to Discord?

2017-12-25 02:24:54 UTC


2017-12-25 02:28:28 UTC

The subprime auto loan market is doing poorly (10% default currently). While I think even a slight 2001 style recession would send the default rate up dramatically, this market is not large enough to cause serious systemic damage. The next asset class that is pretty large (over $1 trillion i believe) is the student loan market. From what I understand, you cannot discharge student loans in bankruptcy (both public and private loans). I am not exactly sure how the accounting would work for a financial institution who has made loans to students who have fallen behind on payment but if you have massive non payments by borrowers this could dramatically impact a firm's business operations which could result in 1) lower earning/decreased profitability, 2) pullback on lending, 3) something else I am unaware of. I do think the student loan market is resilience because 1) inability to default on payments, 2) parent cosigners. students are absolutely debt slaves but being a debt slave does not cause a massive recession. large numbers of people defaulting on payments at the same time does.

2017-12-25 02:28:41 UTC

I was able to do it on my phone

2017-12-27 23:12:40 UTC

@everyone if you have any interest in investing in 2018 read the below:

2017-12-27 23:12:52 UTC

I have been thinking about 2018 as an investment year. I have come to the conclusion I think there is a strong possibility the S&P 500 will go up rather than down in 2018. As such I will be establishing a rather large position in the S&P 500 2x leveraged ETF ticker symbol: SSO. My thoughts are as follows: 1) I think the tax bill will provide substantial tailwinds for the economy. businesses are optimistic and will be more likely to provide employees with bonuses, higher wages, and increased hiring/more job security. consumer confidence has risen precipitously since trumps election and I believe it will continue to rise and stay high due to 1) more money in their paychecks, 2) better prospects for raises/promotions, 3) job security (due to companies hiring). The economy is ~70% consumption driven so it is always a good thing for the economy when consumers feel good about their economic prospects. the proverbial animal spirits are most certainly at play here.
How does this investment work? It’s a directional bet on the S&P 500 with 2x leverage. I think the S&P will go up rather than down in 2018 and I am buying this ETF to magnify my returns. Ex: lets say the S&P goes up 10% in 2018. This ETF will return 20% over the year. If I am wrong and the S&P goes down rather than up, remember, you’ll lose twice as much.
Who this investment is good for? 1) someone with an IRA who does not care about cash flow and will not be able to touch the money in 30+yrs, 2) someone with substantial resources who can afford to take risks. 3) someone willing to take on risk in general. Understand, if I am wrong, and the S&P decreases over 2018, you’ll lose twice as much as you would otherwise.

2017-12-27 23:15:53 UTC

Something to watch also, Dominion energy as a long play

2017-12-27 23:16:02 UTC

whats your thesis?

2017-12-27 23:16:52 UTC

new facility built in cove point that exports natural gas from fracking in PA

2017-12-27 23:17:20 UTC

The pipelines already existed as import lines

2017-12-27 23:17:30 UTC

but are now being used to export to Japan

2017-12-27 23:18:56 UTC

Cabot Oil and Gas contracted with Sumitomo corp and Tokyo Gas

2017-12-27 23:19:48 UTC

selling 350,000 million British thermal units of shale gas per day for 20 years

2017-12-27 23:21:15 UTC

@Deleted User What’s the ticker symbol?

2017-12-27 23:21:19 UTC


2017-12-27 23:21:37 UTC


2017-12-27 23:34:50 UTC

@here Just a generic but friendly reminder not to risk money you can't lose

2017-12-27 23:36:23 UTC

2017-12-27 23:42:38 UTC

@Zyzz The SSO prospectus states its investment objective is to have 2x the daily % movement each day. How does that translate to a longer term investment over 2018? Also, any thoughts on using options on SPY to get leverage as opposed to a 2x ETF?

2017-12-27 23:50:05 UTC

@ThisIsChris my theory is the s&p will go up in 2018 rather than down(reasons stated above). the ETF magnifies the % gain of the S&P. If you have good conviction the market will go up rather than down why not magnify your return if you are willing to take the risk?

2017-12-27 23:51:38 UTC

in regards to options...

2017-12-27 23:54:00 UTC

you can purchase a LEAP with an expiration of Jan 2019/Dec 2018. I do not have much insight to those strategies so really can provide much color

2017-12-28 00:12:30 UTC

@Zyzz Thanks. Yeah just wondering.

2017-12-28 05:29:04 UTC

There are many ETFs available that are set up to track S&P500 at various levels of leverage. No need to spend the fees on options, these ETFs utilize economies of scale of thousands of people wanting S&P leverage and do the options trades from a centralized role.

2017-12-28 05:29:46 UTC

I’m concerned that they could manipulate the interest rate to take the wind out of Trump’s sails.

2017-12-28 05:30:46 UTC

We’re 10 years out from the last recession, there’s been a lot of money printing, I’m expecting another recession before Trump’s first term is over.

2017-12-28 05:35:20 UTC

People are euphoric about the economy, housing index and equities are at all-time highs. The tax breaks are great for business, but we’re also very inflated from money-printing that dug us out of the last recession and that check always comes due. It’s what causes the boom-bust cycle, “stimulating” the economy with tomorrow’s dollars today, over and over, until the distortions get out of control.

2017-12-28 05:41:50 UTC

@Tanner - SC i have a lot of the same concerns as you in regards to the easy money policies. it will be interesting to see at what pace the fed raises interest rates. i do think trump will be successful with actually getting some inflation. i suppose this could prompt the fed to raise rates although i'd rather see them sell off their MBS portfolio which will steepen the yield curve. we are absolutely in a bubble. current valuations from everything from stocks to hard assets has gotten out of control and is certainly in excess of intrinsic value. asset prices are being kept up by easy money and low interest rates. the only question is what will cause the bubble to pop and when

2017-12-28 05:44:31 UTC

One attack avenue is simply raising the interest rates quickly. Easy onset of volatility, popping the bubble, and it can still be blamed on Trump.

2017-12-28 05:45:14 UTC

yes we will have to watch for the cadence of rate increases

2017-12-28 05:47:58 UTC

And even though there are reasons for growth, I have a hard time going long S&P500. It feels like betting on the greater fool. If it’s fundamentally over-valued, it shouldn’t be bought, even if you think you can sell to a greater fool in 6 months. Because the underlying fundamentals are a vacuum that could suck the price down at any moment. Though I suppose you could put in a stop loss, but ... eh.

2017-12-28 05:49:08 UTC

I’m always reminded of my favorite quote, “there are no markets anymore, only manipulations.”

2017-12-28 10:09:49 UTC

I do feel lonely being the only one trading options here

2017-12-28 10:10:26 UTC

If you like thinking about volatility and time value then they are very interesting.

2017-12-28 16:36:58 UTC

@ThisIsChris I think @Deleted User does as well

2017-12-28 16:41:01 UTC

@ThisIsChris in terms of option strategies I only utilize them in one way. If I see a company that is going into earning where expectations are low (perhaps the stock has sold off quite dramatically prior to earnings). I will buy at the money calls for the front month contract (earnings date is in Jan. 2018, I will buy option contract with expiration in Jan 2018 assuming it does not expire prior to the earnings date). My plan is always to exit the position the day of earnings whether I am right or wrong. My goal being to take advantage of any volatility that was present itself. Time decay is not on my side here so i try to minimize that risk.

2017-12-28 16:41:14 UTC

I did this with GIII prior to their recent earnings and made out well

2017-12-28 16:41:26 UTC

What strategies do you use?

2017-12-28 21:26:51 UTC

@Zyzz Nice, I like to use options during earnings season too, though I will usually get ones expiring a few days or maybe a week max after the earnings report comes out since they respond more sharply to the movement of the stock.
Outside earnings season, I still like to use options for all sorts of things. For a while I was using OTM "protective" puts as insurance on an ETF I was holding (This was USO for the first six months of 2015). Sometimes I buy naked puts deep ITM as a way to short a stock, which I did with SPY in the 3rd quarter 2014 and turned my first profit. More recently I've been selling OTM covered calls on SPY as a way to get extra money out of holding that stock. During earnings season I will usually use vertical spreads as a way to cap the cost of the options I buy and as a way to more easily quantify my risk/reward ratio (vertical spreads, especially with very close strikes, act a lot like binary options). Those are the main strategies I use. Sometimes if I have an opinion about something long term but I don't think it will happen short term, (like if I think SPY will go up in the next 3 months, but not in the next week) then I might buy a calendar spread where I buy longterm OTM and sell short term OTM. I also played with selling an Iron Condor once and I might a few bucks. The covered calls and the Iron Condors I used for safer bets that net me just a few bucks, and they're always near-term expiry.

2017-12-28 22:18:20 UTC

what are good resources (preferably free) to learn about options and how to use them>

2017-12-28 22:18:22 UTC


2017-12-28 22:18:50 UTC

I gave a talk on here a few weeks ago. I can do it again.

2017-12-28 22:19:00 UTC

If you get one or two more people to join that would be even better @Deleted User

2017-12-28 22:19:51 UTC

@ThisIsChris Options are a lot of fun. I usually buy puts on stocks I think will bomb on earnings.

2017-12-28 22:20:20 UTC

Here's a leverage story you might like:

2017-12-28 22:20:43 UTC

in early summer 2015, I read an article about how Chinese peasants were double-mortgaging their properties to buy into the stock market

2017-12-28 22:21:02 UTC

there were makeshift "stock cafes" being set up where they could come in and buy stock.

2017-12-28 22:21:24 UTC

I saw this as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make an obvious play

2017-12-28 22:21:38 UTC

There's an ETF called YANG

2017-12-28 22:21:54 UTC

it's a 3x leveraged bear fund for the broad Chinese stock market

2017-12-28 22:22:22 UTC

Oh yeah YING and YANG lol

2017-12-28 22:22:29 UTC

so if the chinese market goes down 1%, it's engineered to increase 3%

2017-12-28 22:22:31 UTC

yeah, exactly

2017-12-28 22:22:45 UTC

So I bought a couple thousand worth of OOM call options on it

2017-12-28 22:22:50 UTC

oh god, 3x ETF, in an options story...

2017-12-28 22:22:56 UTC


2017-12-28 22:23:06 UTC

worked out pretty well

2017-12-28 22:23:33 UTC

Wow, I have to call no homo and no schlomo, but that's really awesome

2017-12-28 22:23:34 UTC

I could have held on a few more weeks, but I was very happy with the return

2017-12-28 22:24:04 UTC

opportunities like that don't come around very often .I was lucky enough to read the right news article

2017-12-28 22:24:31 UTC

I was lucky it tanked so quickly too. If I had been off on my timing it would have been a washout

2017-12-28 22:24:36 UTC

sometimes things work out!

2017-12-28 22:24:45 UTC

Yeah good job dude putting that into action!

2017-12-28 22:25:04 UTC

I love those complex strategies though

2017-12-28 22:25:16 UTC

it's fun to see them mapped out in thinkorswim

2017-12-28 22:25:35 UTC

I haven't seen a good opportunity for one yet. I usually keep it simple-minded.

2017-12-28 22:28:01 UTC

Yeah I love looking at charts showing payoffs evolve in time, and how they start off in these weird smooth shapes that slowly converge to rigid slopes

2017-12-28 22:28:12 UTC


2017-12-28 22:28:48 UTC

Can you tag me if you're making an interesting trade? I'd at least like to follow along. I might jump in too if I understand it enough to make an informed decision.

2017-12-28 22:29:06 UTC

Yeah dude I definitely will, please do likewise!

2017-12-28 22:29:08 UTC

I understand the fundamentals, but I don't spend enough time digging into opportunities

2017-12-28 22:29:09 UTC

you bet!

2017-12-28 22:30:39 UTC


2017-12-28 22:30:47 UTC

Yeah that's a New Years Resolution of mine is to research opportunities. Past year I've just been doing things around earning season on FAAAMNNG or covered calls on SPY. I had more time to research this stuff a few years ago and looking to get back into it more

2017-12-28 22:30:51 UTC

The YANG trade I mentioned earlier ^^^

2017-12-28 22:31:25 UTC

dude that's so awesome

2017-12-28 22:31:26 UTC

Covered calls are fun

2017-12-28 22:31:43 UTC

Great way to make your blue chips do a little extra work

2017-12-28 22:32:08 UTC

Yeah I usually sell slightly OTM SPY calls expiring the next wednesday or Friday

2017-12-28 22:32:27 UTC

I only have enough shares to sell one, so it's basically me picking pennies off the floor

2017-12-28 22:32:48 UTC

So it's still worth it even after the transaction fees?

2017-12-28 22:33:24 UTC

Yeah I can usually get 30-40 bucks out of it after commissions, per trade

2017-12-28 22:33:29 UTC

not bad

2017-12-28 22:34:03 UTC

over a month adds up to about 120-150. Really small considering what I have to put down to cover it, but I was burned during Q3 earnings season and I wanted to do something calm

2017-12-28 22:34:11 UTC

My broker has an API, but they only open it up if your account is freakin' huge. I would love to automate something like what you just said

2017-12-28 22:34:27 UTC

Which Broker is that?

2017-12-28 22:34:32 UTC


2017-12-28 22:34:43 UTC

Hmm I've heard of it but never used it

2017-12-28 22:35:00 UTC

Interactive Brokers has an API, they require a minimum of 10k

2017-12-28 22:35:06 UTC

oh wow

2017-12-28 22:35:23 UTC

Ameritrade is 400K

2017-12-28 22:35:31 UTC

holy cow

2017-12-28 22:35:43 UTC

yeah Interactive Brokers is only one dollar trades too

2017-12-28 22:35:50 UTC

plus something per contract I think

2017-12-28 22:36:04 UTC

Ameritrade is damn expensive: $9.99

2017-12-28 22:36:10 UTC

plus fees for options also

2017-12-28 22:36:18 UTC

Yeah the cheap commissions plus API is it's selling point, though I don't have an account there

2017-12-28 22:36:24 UTC

Wow man yeah that is pretty expensive

2017-12-28 22:36:34 UTC

Are their preipheral services good or something?

2017-12-28 22:36:55 UTC

eh, they're okay. Good with tracking for tax purposes

2017-12-28 22:36:57 UTC

good customer service

2017-12-28 22:37:05 UTC

and I don't make any trades

2017-12-28 22:37:15 UTC

if I did more day trading I would probably open a second account

2017-12-28 22:37:17 UTC

Interactive Brokers provides absolutely no frills lol. Not even stock quotes, you would have to look that up on Yahoo. Though they will supply you with data for extra subscription fees

2017-12-28 22:37:27 UTC

I see

2017-12-28 22:37:41 UTC

I'm talking about them because I researched them, but i don't actually use them. I use Schwab

2017-12-28 22:37:48 UTC

quoting through pleb-tier finance sites is almost real-time now, so that's a decent trade-off

2017-12-28 22:38:30 UTC

Schwab is like 8 dollars an option trade plus .65 per contract, and they only allow two legs per trade, so building something like an iron condor costs quite a lot which is why I don't bother most of the time

2017-12-28 22:39:29 UTC

On the Iron Condor I sold there, I think I paid like 30 bucks in fees

2017-12-28 22:39:34 UTC


2017-12-28 22:39:39 UTC

Ameritrade would be about the same though

2017-12-28 22:40:25 UTC

Here's a trade I've starting thing about

2017-12-28 22:40:43 UTC

I was thinking about @Zyzz 's thesis about the S&P500 going up this year

2017-12-28 22:41:02 UTC

and I was thinking to research it a bit more, but here's my idea

2017-12-28 22:41:39 UTC

Buy a long term (Maybe a LEAP) OTM call option, but sell a near term call at the same strike

2017-12-28 22:42:00 UTC

that way trying to save on the time premium

2017-12-28 22:42:23 UTC

I would need to research more to try to figure out a good window of time

2017-12-28 22:42:24 UTC

thats an interesting thought

2017-12-28 22:46:26 UTC

buying the dec 2018 295 strike is ~$2.60. that implies 10% appreciation over 2018

2017-12-28 22:46:31 UTC

@Zyzz Yeah maybe we can put our heads together and crowdsource this together. (Since this isn't happening right away I think, then I think we have time). Here's the three questions I would like to figure out: 1. What is a reasonable price target that can be achieved this year? 2. When is a reasonable window in which it might reach that target? 3. Are there any reasonable near-term windows where we might think it *won't* hit the target? For example maybe the answers are 4%, September, and March, respectively

2017-12-28 22:46:59 UTC

Hmm now we're cooking, let me pull those chains up

2017-12-28 22:51:38 UTC

@ThisIsChris so heres my thought as to how we will figure out a price target. we need forward earnings predictions and then apply a reasonable multiple to it. that will allow us to back into our price target.

2017-12-28 22:54:11 UTC

we are essentially taking earnings predictions and applying a multiple to it. the trick with the multiple is we need to assess if it could compress or expand

2017-12-28 22:55:23 UTC

according to that the S&P is trading at 21x P/E

2017-12-28 22:55:40 UTC

which is very rich.. historically the S&P trades at ~15x

2017-12-28 22:56:52 UTC

@Zyzz @Deleted User phew, chains:


2017-12-28 22:57:55 UTC

"according to that the S&P is trading at 21x P/E
which is very rich.. historically the S&P trades at ~15x" @Zyzz what do you think? Is that necessarily bad news? Or should we try to see if earnings might go up?

2017-12-28 22:58:30 UTC

@ThisIsChris its really about reversion to the mean and from this vantage point it means go down

2017-12-28 22:58:31 UTC

Doing it this way, I wonder if we should be looking at an ETF with fewer holdings so that we can look into each major holding individually, though if there is another way I would love to know

2017-12-28 22:59:43 UTC

individual stock research is a lot of work and even with all the research there could be something you just miss or never thought about that tanks the stock.. it could be bad or greedy management.. which for us would be tough for us to be privy to

2017-12-28 23:02:06 UTC

Hey that's OK then, maybe SPY going up isn't the thing, maybe we should be looking at SPY to go down over the year then. That's actually kind of more interesting because we might expect a slight boost at the beginning thanks to the tax cuts, and then a reversion later in the year

2017-12-28 23:02:20 UTC

i used to pick stocks and i did not do very well and it was mostly due to stock specific issues so i changed to pick sectors or invest in income producing securities like preferred stock

2017-12-28 23:03:43 UTC

yeah my issue with that is i have no idea when the market will tank. i know we are in a bubble but it seems like trump and everyone else in congress is deadset on blowing it until it pops on its own. i am not about to be short this market it just seems like their is too much momentum with the tax bill etc. it'd be like shorting the market in 2005/2006 imo

2017-12-28 23:03:50 UTC

I'm back, catching up to the thread...

2017-12-28 23:04:34 UTC

I agree with @Zyzz The aggregate P/E of the S&P is too high for me to be comfortable making large bets on upwards moves

2017-12-28 23:04:46 UTC

If I were to do that, I would want to hedge for a big crash

2017-12-28 23:05:01 UTC

I think it's going to go up 10% on the year or nosedive hard.

2017-12-28 23:05:20 UTC

but that and $4 will get you a coffee at (((Starbucks)))

2017-12-28 23:05:21 UTC

@Zyzz here's a question, do you think we could say that even if the market goes up possibily, can we be confident saying it *won't* go up 10%? Maybe selling those OTM calls is a way to go on this

2017-12-28 23:05:30 UTC

@Deleted User what catalyst do you see for a nose dive?

2017-12-28 23:06:16 UTC

War is the most obvious thing, but a general bubble-popping correction seems overdue.

2017-12-28 23:06:22 UTC

Nose dive not sure, but we could get interest rate hikes from the fed

2017-12-28 23:06:42 UTC

@ThisIsChris i am seeing dec 2018 295 strike calls sell at ~2.6. i dont think thats enough premium for me to hold for a year with unlimited loss potential

2017-12-28 23:07:10 UTC

I don't see things staying static is all I'm sayin'

2017-12-28 23:07:17 UTC

@Deleted User war is a possibility with NK no question. What would pop the bubble?

2017-12-28 23:07:38 UTC

I think a broad-scale pullback on credit

2017-12-28 23:07:40 UTC

i am expecting rate hikes from the fed.. i think cadence of rate increases is key

2017-12-28 23:07:52 UTC

too many rate hikes, too quickly will spell disater

2017-12-28 23:07:53 UTC

IMO the american consumer is tapped out

2017-12-28 23:08:00 UTC


2017-12-28 23:08:29 UTC

The outstanding credit numbers are nuts, both in the consumer and corporate spheres

2017-12-28 23:08:46 UTC

I think that's what is driving a lot of the increase in stock prices

2017-12-28 23:08:51 UTC

@Zyzz agreed on the decembers, now I'm looking at chains for more near term (also included on the pdf)

2017-12-28 23:08:52 UTC

lenders get frightened? i can see that happening. what would cause them to get frightened?

2017-12-28 23:09:06 UTC

I'm saying that there will be a pull back on people seeking credit

2017-12-28 23:09:10 UTC

especially if interest rates rise

2017-12-28 23:09:26 UTC

i 100% agree that consumers are buying on credit rather than actual money they are earning

2017-12-28 23:09:35 UTC

or rather, I'm saying that pullback would be the catalyst

2017-12-28 23:09:55 UTC

I guess what always frightens lenders, if people default. @Zyzz you gave a pretty good analysis the other day on default rates for the largest asset classes. I actually wanted to ask where you find that data

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