pretty much the opposite

So a Progressive?

no

think a Jim Webb as opposed to a Clinton

what matters most is what each candidate that is elected supports and does

think we're in for a Nixon-style midterm election,
what I mean by that is,
+2-3 net gain in the Senate, -9-10 net loss in the House, and -8-9 net loss in Governorships

What makes you think that

when you look at the number of seats that are up for grabs in the Senate and House, it's almost exactly the same,
so it can be expected the result will be similiar

the thing is, it's hard to predict in January

so much can happen between now and November

if things go to shit, I can picture a Blue Wave

if things go much better, I can picture us having a net gain of seats not only in the Senate but in the House

also the GOP will put much more of a fight this time around than they did in Alabama

a net gain in the House?

errrr

remember, there are a _lot_ of vulnerable red seats

there are vulnerable blue seats and the GOP will definitely spend $ on defending the vulnerable red seats

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156576302

new thread goys

who here is online right now

REAKING: NEW RATINGS FROM COOK POLITICAL REPORT ON HOUSE CONTROL IN 2018

COOK REPORT SAYS REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO RETAIN CONTROL OF HOUSE WITH 222 SEATS

as much as I'd like to believe that, it seems too early to predict

If the election was held today then

It would be easier to predict if we knew the next item of the Republican legislative agenda

btw sorry for my absence yesterday guys, I was busy with this hippy-ish artsy Jewish girl from Los Angeles who looks like Anne Frank

>tfw /pol/ gave me a Jewess fetish

>Khazar

yep, although I already had it before the Abigail Shapiro meme

jesus, /pol/ is moving fast

I almost dated 2 Jewish girls

one moved away and the other turned into a Hillary/Warren crossover

as in, she looked like a mix between Hillary and Warren ?

no, she looked very fine (got fat now) it's he views and actions

real shame tbh

she was really smart and nice

Midterms news:

New Maryland US Senate primary challenger for 2018

hahahahahahhahahahahahahaha

what a faggot

hope xe wins the primary

If radicals can successfully primary moderate Democrats, it can truly be a red storm

bumping just so I don't have to look at this, thing

buump

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.thats better

is anyone here interested in committing to creating the general thread in the early part of the day (like, 9am - 5pm, eastern time) ??

you don't have to take the effort to get it bumped. You can even let it die and create a new one again (if you feel like).

I just want at least one general thread every day in that section of time

all you need to do is copy and paste the OP and some subsequent posts

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156695200

new thread

hello

Florida,

this is adHgM/4V

definetly competitive

from http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156695200

are you a Cuban

yes, 2nd gen American

can trace my parents back from Northern Spain though

excellent, do you know what district you live in?
If you live in the 26th or 27th, it is vital that you go out and vote this year otherwise Democrats could snatch both seats

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 I'm glad you know that off the top of your head

district 16

https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_16th_Congressional_District

safe (R)

looks safe

still going to try my hardest, after Moore you can never try too hard

oh yeah

fantastic

you should spend more effort on ousting Bill Nelson than on the House race though, I'd say

yeah that'll be pretty close

Rick Scott is the only chance Florida has to electing a Republican

your area seems fine at the local level, so it makes sense to focus more on the state level

FL voted Nelson three times in a row

yeah, but that doesn't make him invincible

a lot has changed since 2012

polling in FL has Scott and Nelson pretty close, so I'm sure it's achievable

Rick Scott is running? Didn't know that

I'm not sure if it's confirmed yet

Not yet

potential I think

Trump is still trying to win him over

Trump's pushing him to, definitely

Scott is concerned because Florida has a habit of punishing the incumbent party during midterms

looks like he's trying to pander in regards to the shithole comments

not really anyone with more name recognition than the governor, he's a bit of an immigration pushover though

hopefully he'd fall in line if Trump tells him to

Scott is good at balancing his approach with Trump

in a swing state, you can't embrace him but you can't distance yourself from him either

trying to make this senate list, get to california, then get completely stumped

everyone running doesn't even have a wikipedia page

that's the thing

most of them aren't going to be important enough

now, there's still quite a long time until the primaries

I wouldn't be surprised if we find out about more celebrity candidates

I know it's basically suicide in that state, but it's so damn big is the thing

I heard Caitlyn Jenner is running for the GOP here

you'd think there'd be someone, like a James Woods or something that'd put their hat in the ring

s/he's still under potential candidates is the thing

I'll put him in then just to have someone I guess

lel

But there's virtually no way a non-Democrat is winning here in the Senate

it's possible that Feinstein gets primaried tho

I know, but you always want to be sure, after Moore, nothing can be certain

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 you live in Cali ?

yep

there's virtually no way, but that doesn't mean there's absolutely no way

LOT of vulnerable districts this season

5-10 districts could be lost here alone

if that happens, hopefully we make up for it by picking up seats in the rust belt

and areas in the midwest / south that are held by weak Democrat incumbents

this is why we need strict federal voter ID, the stuff people can get away with in cali's voting system is insane

what area of California do you live in ? Here in NYC there are quite a few Trump supporters if you look for them, but they're just drowned out by the rest

from what I can tell, many Democrat voters aren't even the "reeee" type

they're just used to voting for the D candidate because they're minorities who've been doing that for decades

what's it like politically over there in California ?

over here, the 'reeeee' types tend to be white transplants

it's like that a lot up in New England, lot of union type voting for Ds

hopefully one of these days if the GOP ends up being more like a worker's party like Trump's trying to make it, there'll be a few flips

I wonder how many voters Trump could have flipped if he campaigned in and targeted certain demographics in New England, the urban northeast, college students, the west coast, other blue areas

I live in Orange county

this used to be a Republican stronghold

it might not have been worth the effort, but it's definitely possible to flip voters from D to R

Thoughts on Austin Petersen running for MO Senate?

overrated

open borders are a massive deal breaker

Missouri is the best state to flip this year

And John James for MI Senate?

he's the best option, but Michigan's not going red

it could be competitive in theory

I think we need to prioritize winnability over anything else

definitely

it's better to have an R who can be influenced to be less of a cuck after they won

right, we need make each state as competitive as humanly possible

than a D who can't be influenced

if they have an anti immigration position, I think that's really the only metric to care about

my goal is to have RAISE passed

Bannon's strategy of warring against establishment cucks should have started in Trump's 2nd term, not his 1st

yeah, Flake and Corker have really been the only ones who have posed an issue legislatively who are up this year, looking at Alabama, that should've never been lost

Going after Strange was foolish, he voted for Trump's agenda 98% of the time

his goal was to take out McConnell, but by just pushing Moore into the nomination and abandoning the campaign after the allegations, he's given McConnell more clout than he could've ever imagined

now we're asking the question "is this guy going to be a risk" after what happened because of Bannon

the thing is, I wonder how many primary voters flipped from Strange to Moore after Bannon's endorsement

does Bannon really hold that much clout among GOP primary voters?

another thing, bringing the guy from Blackwater to run in Wyoming is such a ridiculous idea, what has he even done in the state

he's just someone who worked for Breitbart

and became a prominent figure in the Trump administration after Trump won, but...I don't see how that translates to political clout among voters

the thing is, a lot of people had it in their heads that he was the voice behind MAGA, and that he was what won the campaign

I think Moore might have won the primary regardless

oh look at that

hello

Hi

State?

"a lot of people had it in their heads that he was the voice behind MAGA, and that he was what won the campaign"

I think he helped with the "grab her by the pussy" allegations by giving the idea to bring Bill Clinton's accusers but wasn't he in support of Cruz during the primaries?

I think that idea is pushed by the media

I'm not sure how many GOP primary voters would vote for someone in the primary just because Bannon endorsed them

@Nuke what state are you from

I think that Trump's endorsement would've been enough to win Strange the primary, but the thing is at the time people had the idea that Bannon was a MAGA agent working outside the White House on Trump's command

Moore was popular among conservatives in Alabama for quite some time

He was known for his religious rulings as a judge for decades,

Bannon or not, he was always likely to win the primary

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 yeah, I think I might have heard of Moore years ago back when that 10 Commandment thing was in the news

there's no real way of knowing now I guess

he definitely shouldn't have watched football during that last weekend though

God, I hope another scandal doesn't break out in the near future

here's something very important to keep in mind: people on /pol/ and other right wing spaces on the Internet ....are NOT the same thing as GOP voters

during those last few days of the presidential campaign, Trump was fucking grinding it with those rallies, 4 states in a day, that's the mentality we need

there are many, many GOP voters who are old people who don't even know how to use the Internet that well

There are two types of GOP voters,

small town voters without college degrees, and college-educated voters in the suburbs

people from /pol/ would have been fine voting for Moore, but some old lady getting her news from local talk radio (which apparently railed hard against Moore), would have voted write-in or abstained

Trump is popular amongst the first, but not the other, which poses trouble for the midterms

the thing is, people aren't voting for Trump in the midterms

I'd argue that people are overemphasizing it as a "referendum on Trump"

I thought that too, but,

The rich who live in the suburbs watching Fox the whole time definitely stayed home in AL

no question

in the Virginia gubertorial race,

2 to 1 voters say they voted for Northam to show opposition to Trump

in New Jersey, it was 3 to 1

sauce ?

those people probably would have voted for Northam regardless

and when you interview them as they walk out the polls, then ask them "is showing opposition against Trump a reason" , they could easily say 'yes'

but the thing is, they would have voted for the D candidate anyway

Jill Vogel, the Trump candidate in the Lieutenant Governor race, got around the same percentage as Trump

while Gillespie, who shunned Trump, got less

I mean, its Virginia, one of the more blue states.

not by much though

also, look at this shift from 2016 to 2017

both from Virginia btw

not a big difference

going from +4 Republican to +3 Democrat is a troubling change

it looks like a turnout thing'

true

arguably there are aa loty of Trump voters who stayed home and didn't want Gillespie

again, Vogel did better as the Trump candidate

that's a problem

what did that video of the truck mowing down the kids actually scare them or something

You have to ask though, did people vote for Trump because they actually like his policies, or did people vote for Trump because they were against Clinton

it shoudn't matter who's on the ticket, staying home because you don't like the candidate undercuts Trump's ability to govern

he's still popular within his base, which should be a sign

In 2016, a crapton of Democrats didn't show up to vote for Hillary

over 10,000,000 Democratic voters, actually

our people should 100% make sure to go to the polls when they need to

Yeah, so methinks people just didn't like Hillary and didn't vote, but its different with the midterms, since there is essentially no democrat that is more loathed than Hillary

I think

IDK I'm not really looking for a red storm since i'm a lefty but its pretty interesting to see what you guys think

the thing is, you have to keep in mind that while Hillary being a particularly odious candidate was a significant issue that worked against her, she also had a lot of media shilling on her side

John Kerry didn't have it so lopsided in his favor

I'd even argue that the media was fairer to McCain and Romney

a huge factor we have to consider on a case-by-case basis is how the media treats each candidate in the hundreds of races

in primaries, recognizability is the most important factor, when it came to the dem primaries in 2016, who's more recognizable, the former 1st lady and secretary of state, or a senator from vermont

same with the Rs

I think Trump's base will be much more excited to vote this year than in the special elections last year

Oh,

that reminds me,

special elections in off-season years can be gamed

there's a special election in March,

by massive disparities in fundraising and GOTV efforts

Pennsylvania

oh yeah, that's important

Media coverage helped a lot with that though @FLanon . Media shilled for Hillary 24/7 and was biased for her.

18th district,

this is concentrated with White Working Class Voters,

(Trump's base)

this election should be an indicator of Trump's actual approval

fair enough, and I remember the wikileaks emails that showed that the media wanted trump to win to make sure that clinton would win, but the principle still stands for me

yeah, in elections that don't get much attention (primary races, off-season races), recognition is a HUGE issue

and I'd argue that fundraising is more important in primary races and off-season races than in the more publicized midterm and presidential year races

take a look at FL polls for the primaries and the MI polls before Kid Rock dropped out, they blow the competitors in their own party by miles

referring to Rick Scott in FL btw

it's very easy for people like us to assume that the general population cares as much as we do

that's why we need to mold them

sure, Alabama and Virginia got quite a bit of attention on the national level, but still not nearly as much as the 2016 Presidential election did

I bet you my balls that if I asked 50 random people here in NYC who "Ralph Northam" is, at least 45 of them would have no clue

outside of VA, sure

it'd probably be over half not knowing in VA

also, I bet if you went to some random college in Virginia in 2017, and asked 50 of them who "Ralph Northam" was, most wouldn't know

yeah

it's very easy to forget how out of touch the typical normie is

(by the way, is anyone else annoyed at how /pol/ and 4channers in general refer to SJW leftists with dyed hair as "normies" ????)