Are you guys all right wing

what are your thoughts on the PA race

I'm libertarian-ish

I predict we'll end up with 53-54 seats

former leftist from NYC

what races do you think the GOP will win

paleoconservative here

and what races do you think the Democrats will win

all sorts of things can happen

It all depends who runs

I mean, Gillibrand is almost certainly winning here in NY, but nothing is fully certain

I'm a leftist. I still think you guys are going to win both the Senate and the House. At the very least the whole midterm will be a wash

If Rick Scott wins the GOP nomination, we could win Florida

Rick Scott is popular in FL?

Very popular

Nelson, Donnelly, Heitkamp are all very vulnerable moderate Democrats in Trump-winning states

well-recieved FL governor

interesting

Also,

Missouri is the best state up for grabs

unpopular senator,

strong Trump support,

But then again, Trump was running up against Hillary, so it might not be a good indicator

excellent GOP candidate: Josh Hawley

I used to live in FL and campaigned online a bit for Alex Sink when she was running for FL governor (she was the Democrat that Rick Scott beat when he first took office)

Rick Scott had a lot of baggage so I was surprised he won and beat Crist in re-election

under no circumstances can we win a senate seat in NY

however,

well, we can win

in NY

there _is_ a potential house seat we can win

it's just unlikely

@Red Storm (in NYC) that's like saying Texas is going to vote in Beto. Not happening most likely

NY-14 is a seat we can win

nominate a strong GOP candidate and if Gillibrand is embroiled in scandal, it can happen, but don't count on it

https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2018

Does anyone have the chart where it shows which Senators are up for grabs

In 2016, the Democratic Representative narrowly won here, and Trump outperformed Clinton by a large margin,

good chance to go red

lol I probably know a few people who live in that district

There is a vulnerable district here too, however,

NY-24

Are you both New Yorkers

Nope

Southern Californian, I'll admit, it looks bad here for the midterms

wait, you're saying NY-14 can be won? It was taken by Clinton 78-20

Who cares about California though; It's a blue state for the most part (fortunately for me)

nope, NY-24

yeah

But the only two states Republicans have to worry about are Arizona and Nevada

NY-14 is in NYC

The rest is on the Democrats

pretty close to where I live

At least that's what I think

CA has a lot of vulnerable seats this year,

so what does your senate map look like for 2018

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49 could all go blue

What makes you say that

Idk that much about the House races

retiring incumbents, right?

Is one of the Darrel Issa

These are districts held by Republican congressmen that Clinton won in

California has no anti voter fraud measures

I'm surprised there are any GOP incumbents at all

These are districts held by Democrats that Trump won in

I suspect that the "3 million voters margin" can be entirely attributed to voter fraud in Cali

thanks

The best oppurtunity for Republicans in the house race is Minnesota,

can you post those images in the current general btw

so it is crucial that all Minnesotans are out voting on November

I'm the OP so I can't bump the thread

yeah, how likely do you think the GOP can win both senate seats in Minnesota

Trump would have won it were it not for McMullin

(and Gary Johnson, though he siphoned some votes from Hillary)

I'd say there's about a 40-45% chance of winning the special election in Minnesota

If Michelle Bachmann runs, it'd boost the odds

Is Joe Arpaio running for Senate in Arizona? Will Arizona become blue or stay red?

He is, he won't win the primaries

McSally is most likely

That's only if the majority of the people are evangelicals in Minnesota. I don't see how any liberal or maybe any moderate conservative would vote Bachmann

But in general, the midterms are probably going to be a Red Wave or just a stalemate. IDK how a Blue Wave might happen

expect a blue wave in some parts of the country

my biases are skewed as a former leftist...but Bachmann seems to appeal only to religious conservatives. She was kind of a joke in 2012, but then again so was Trump

^

Trump's got a problem with white college-educated suburban voters (AKA Soccer Moms)

oh yeah

however, most GOP candidates in congress won't

the left is trying to tout this as a referendum against Trump

I think it's going to be far more about candidate vs candidate, and somewhat about party vs party

not true,

to be fair,

all midterm elections are treated as a referendum of the sitting president and the party in power

remember in 2014?

"Soccer moms" are prevalent in the Midwest though, so I doubt its about who the people are more than the party they are currently in

Obama and his party got shlonged across the country

I think you could make the argument that the USA is still generally center-right, and that 2006 was an anomaly

neverTrumpers will still reliably vote for the GOP candidates in their district

Well, there was a resurgence of Tea Partiers at that time. Idk if there is going to be a progressive/populist resurgence this year

Maybe there is, IDK