There are two types of GOP voters,

small town voters without college degrees, and college-educated voters in the suburbs

people from /pol/ would have been fine voting for Moore, but some old lady getting her news from local talk radio (which apparently railed hard against Moore), would have voted write-in or abstained

Trump is popular amongst the first, but not the other, which poses trouble for the midterms

the thing is, people aren't voting for Trump in the midterms

I'd argue that people are overemphasizing it as a "referendum on Trump"

I thought that too, but,

The rich who live in the suburbs watching Fox the whole time definitely stayed home in AL

no question

in the Virginia gubertorial race,

2 to 1 voters say they voted for Northam to show opposition to Trump

in New Jersey, it was 3 to 1

sauce ?

those people probably would have voted for Northam regardless

and when you interview them as they walk out the polls, then ask them "is showing opposition against Trump a reason" , they could easily say 'yes'

but the thing is, they would have voted for the D candidate anyway

Jill Vogel, the Trump candidate in the Lieutenant Governor race, got around the same percentage as Trump

while Gillespie, who shunned Trump, got less

I mean, its Virginia, one of the more blue states.

not by much though

also, look at this shift from 2016 to 2017

both from Virginia btw

not a big difference

going from +4 Republican to +3 Democrat is a troubling change

it looks like a turnout thing'

true

arguably there are aa loty of Trump voters who stayed home and didn't want Gillespie

again, Vogel did better as the Trump candidate

that's a problem

what did that video of the truck mowing down the kids actually scare them or something

You have to ask though, did people vote for Trump because they actually like his policies, or did people vote for Trump because they were against Clinton

it shoudn't matter who's on the ticket, staying home because you don't like the candidate undercuts Trump's ability to govern

he's still popular within his base, which should be a sign

In 2016, a crapton of Democrats didn't show up to vote for Hillary

over 10,000,000 Democratic voters, actually

our people should 100% make sure to go to the polls when they need to

Yeah, so methinks people just didn't like Hillary and didn't vote, but its different with the midterms, since there is essentially no democrat that is more loathed than Hillary

I think

IDK I'm not really looking for a red storm since i'm a lefty but its pretty interesting to see what you guys think

the thing is, you have to keep in mind that while Hillary being a particularly odious candidate was a significant issue that worked against her, she also had a lot of media shilling on her side