going from +4 Republican to +3 Democrat is a troubling change

it looks like a turnout thing'

true

arguably there are aa loty of Trump voters who stayed home and didn't want Gillespie

again, Vogel did better as the Trump candidate

that's a problem

what did that video of the truck mowing down the kids actually scare them or something

You have to ask though, did people vote for Trump because they actually like his policies, or did people vote for Trump because they were against Clinton

it shoudn't matter who's on the ticket, staying home because you don't like the candidate undercuts Trump's ability to govern

he's still popular within his base, which should be a sign

In 2016, a crapton of Democrats didn't show up to vote for Hillary

over 10,000,000 Democratic voters, actually

our people should 100% make sure to go to the polls when they need to

Yeah, so methinks people just didn't like Hillary and didn't vote, but its different with the midterms, since there is essentially no democrat that is more loathed than Hillary

I think

IDK I'm not really looking for a red storm since i'm a lefty but its pretty interesting to see what you guys think

the thing is, you have to keep in mind that while Hillary being a particularly odious candidate was a significant issue that worked against her, she also had a lot of media shilling on her side

John Kerry didn't have it so lopsided in his favor

I'd even argue that the media was fairer to McCain and Romney

a huge factor we have to consider on a case-by-case basis is how the media treats each candidate in the hundreds of races

in primaries, recognizability is the most important factor, when it came to the dem primaries in 2016, who's more recognizable, the former 1st lady and secretary of state, or a senator from vermont

same with the Rs

I think Trump's base will be much more excited to vote this year than in the special elections last year

Oh,

that reminds me,

special elections in off-season years can be gamed

there's a special election in March,

by massive disparities in fundraising and GOTV efforts

Pennsylvania

oh yeah, that's important

Media coverage helped a lot with that though @FLanon . Media shilled for Hillary 24/7 and was biased for her.

18th district,

this is concentrated with White Working Class Voters,

(Trump's base)

this election should be an indicator of Trump's actual approval

fair enough, and I remember the wikileaks emails that showed that the media wanted trump to win to make sure that clinton would win, but the principle still stands for me

yeah, in elections that don't get much attention (primary races, off-season races), recognition is a HUGE issue

and I'd argue that fundraising is more important in primary races and off-season races than in the more publicized midterm and presidential year races

take a look at FL polls for the primaries and the MI polls before Kid Rock dropped out, they blow the competitors in their own party by miles

referring to Rick Scott in FL btw

it's very easy for people like us to assume that the general population cares as much as we do