could be (I think Manchin is going to survive though) - I'm just saying that IA-01 is the easiest way to make money without much risk

It's hard predicting the senate map. The problem is that you need to look at it on a large scale rather than just focusing on individual races. For example, if WV and IN flips then WI and OH are going to be closer than expected, because the white working-class went red. Hispanic turnout will be key in AZ and NV. Black turnout in TN and FL. I think there are three possible outcomes: #1. Republicans get BTFO, and the democrats take the majority. #2. Democrats do well, but republicans are able to hang onto a 51 to 53 seat majority. #3 Red wave with 56+ seats.

It is sad that my state has more representation by just pure numbers in the Senate vs. the House

How is SD? Is it like MT, but with less taxes? Or is there a lot more plains and desert?

there's a new poll with Stabenow +13 over John James, but remember

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2014#Polling

Gillespie lagged in the same fashion but almost won in 2014

All these polls seem retarded

It amazes me how inaccurate (((polls))) can be.

https://heavy.com/news/2018/09/who-won-first-cruz-vs-beto-debate/

Vote "Ted Cruz definitely won"

@Rhodesiaboo do you unironically think that the gop will get over sixty seats?

Maybe

@Rhodesiaboo how about we make a bet?

I don’t want to bet money

If you want to bet go on predictit

tbh, I think 55 is sort of reasonable

@ThatRightWingFish If we keep all of our seats and flip North Dakota, Indiana, Florida and Missouri, 51 plus 4 is 55

@ThatRightWingFish Almost every poll shows Rick Scott in the lead. If we turn out in large numbers, it is definitely winnable.

And Claire McCaskill made a grave mistake: refusing to confirm Kavanaugh

55 is certainly reasonable

56 is best case in the current environment, October suprises could change that though

Who knows, it's called a surprise for a reason

I think NJ should be a tossup-tilt D.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bob-menendez-hugin-new-jersey_us_5ba40175e4b0375f8f9b6272

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/21/menendez_in_jeopardy_as_senate_challenger_makes_push_138139.html

Due to allegations in Ohio and New Jersey, I am giving those tossup. I am moving North Dakota and Texas from tilt to lean R. New Mexico is changed from Solid D, to Likely D due to Johnson.

Whatever you say retard

At best I would put OH as lean democrat. I definitely wouldn't put OH as a tossup and WV as lean blue. Remember that this entire region is centered around the white working class, so if OH or WI are even close then that means WV and IN went red.

My map would probably be something like: IN tilt red, WV tilt blue, WI and OH lean blue, and MI and PA likely blue.

All these polls are trash

I'm not sure it's fair to call every single poll trash.

I mean, my map is the best.

I don't agree with yours. I'd have FL tilt red, and NV as a pure tossup.

Any poll that has someone above by 10% in a state besides New York, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Illinois, Kentucky, the New England States, or The middle of the country is garbage

@Rhodesiaboo UNLESS that poll has the GOP up 10+

in which case you'd agree with it

I've never seen you contest a poll which favours the GOP.

OH is safe D, WV is likely

yep

you folks'd be calling it solid if the polls were the other way round

One thing that might be worth considering is overestimation of democratic turnout affecting polling down the ballot. Like if they're expecting the dems to be up by 7% and adjust for that then every single election polled would be off if the democrats were only up by 3% in that state.

I definitely have a hard time calling bullshit if the polling aggregate has the democrat up by over 7 points though.

OH-12 is a good predictive measure of Democratic turnout.

and it's big