Amsel
Discord ID: 221819329929412610
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If the election were held today I could see it going like this. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/l1bPOa
But there's still a lot of time between now and election day. That TN shit will hopefully get shut down, and NV, AZ, MT, and WV will be toss-ups.
I think NV is already a toss-up, but they've been memeing the "blue wave" so much that even tilt-D is treated as safe D. He's definitely the most vulnerable Senator on the map though. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him lose.
meant to say republican senator, sorry
Do you guys think Manchin or Tester is more vulnerable?
Any of you guys vote today? What are your thoughts on the commissioner of agriculture candidates?
He seemed pretty good. I like veterans. But he lost his charm to me after finding out that most of his time in service was just being a reservist, and he has never even been stationed outside the U.S.
No way Trump isn't carrying his home state if D.C., Maryland, and Vermont are tossups tbh.
The media is playing cover for Gillum. They keep pushing that "monkey this up" meme; one even said that DeSantis was "comparing Gillum to a monkey." They're also saying that he's not even a democratic socialist. How can I fight these narratives?
A lot of these are kind of bad. They come across as wordy occupy-democrats type memes, and others use too much hyperbole to be taken seriously by anyone other than Q boomers. If you're looking to spread stuff on faceberg then I'd recommend focusing mostly on issues and character attacks. If you're looking to motivate republicans then use humor. Trying to make a political statement, but then also trying to shoe-horn it into a meme format comes across badly. Even worse than the ones that are essentially just saying "Vote republican" and nothing else.
Thoughts on this? I feel like the last sentence isn't that good, but I'm not sure what to replace it with.
I'll make a gun one too. I'm just worried that we're not talking about taxes and economics enough.
This probably breaks my advice on meme formats. kek
source on him wanting to ban semi-autos?
Does assault weapons mean semi-auto? During a debate, he seemed to imply it was automaic.
Right I forgot that they do that. I just assumed it meant automatic rifle, but they always push to ban all AR15s after shootings.
@[Lex] yes
I'm not sure where to meta-post, so I'll do it here: So do you guys actually do anything? All I see is people posting polls and then calling them fake. Why not make dedicated channels for operations. There are people here doing stuff online and IRL, but this discord is really unorganized. Why not start a meme campaign and agree to post it once a day on /pol/, twitter, or a subreddit? E-activism seems better than just analysis. I see so much autistic determination here, but it seems like it's not being utilized.
It sets the precedent for redoing elections if there's fraud.
I don't use reddit, but I can make an account to go shill, I guess. Who should I be sending it to?
Also would it get classified as spam?
What's funny is that the polls actually show DeSantis doing better with Hispanics than with whites.
that meme poll with gillum up by 6 points has him winning hispanics by a significant margin
Here's another one that has him leading in hispanics more than whites: https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2565
I don't see how Gillum is supposed to be winning if he's losing whites and hispanics. The black population in Florida is about the national average. Methinks using census data and 2016 turnout overstates expected black turnout, since mid-terms have lower minority turnout, and black voting rates are abysmal relative to their portion of the population.
done
It's hard predicting the senate map. The problem is that you need to look at it on a large scale rather than just focusing on individual races. For example, if WV and IN flips then WI and OH are going to be closer than expected, because the white working-class went red. Hispanic turnout will be key in AZ and NV. Black turnout in TN and FL. I think there are three possible outcomes: #1. Republicans get BTFO, and the democrats take the majority. #2. Democrats do well, but republicans are able to hang onto a 51 to 53 seat majority. #3 Red wave with 56+ seats.
Trump deserves his personality cult, honestly. Everything looked like it was lost back in 2015. The tea party failed, and republicans seemed incapable of doing anything but winning side-elections and losing when it actually mattered. Then Trump swooped in from nowhere, and we saw hundreds of thousands of disaffected young men feel genuine hope for the first time in a long time. He shook the entire planet. It's hard to put into words just how much things have changed in the last 3 years. But he gave us tangible momentum to fight against the decline, and for that I am extremely grateful.
How is SD? Is it like MT, but with less taxes? Or is there a lot more plains and desert?
Can I get some (You)s to bump these threads? https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/186471016
It amazes me how inaccurate (((polls))) can be.
So apparently Rosenstein is getting Shoah'd. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1043195602635509767
Unless this is 4 dimensional fake news.
I was hoping Trump would be a lot more aggressive with institutional warfare. A democrat would have purged any non-die hard loyalist cabinet members and DOJ/DOD/DHS officials and nominated someone to every vacant judge spot. At least this is going to give him tangible evidence when calling the Mueller probe a "witch hunt."
Voting is super easy. If your state has vote by mail there's no excuse. But that might just be me being autistic.
Florida is very conservative on taxes, also guns, but to a lesser extent. Shit like this doesn't look good. Spread on social media.
At best I would put OH as lean democrat. I definitely wouldn't put OH as a tossup and WV as lean blue. Remember that this entire region is centered around the white working class, so if OH or WI are even close then that means WV and IN went red.
My map would probably be something like: IN tilt red, WV tilt blue, WI and OH lean blue, and MI and PA likely blue.
I'm not sure it's fair to call every single poll trash.
I don't agree with yours. I'd have FL tilt red, and NV as a pure tossup.
One thing that might be worth considering is overestimation of democratic turnout affecting polling down the ballot. Like if they're expecting the dems to be up by 7% and adjust for that then every single election polled would be off if the democrats were only up by 3% in that state.
I definitely have a hard time calling bullshit if the polling aggregate has the democrat up by over 7 points though.
It's a fucking special election that most people didn't even know was going on, and they still lost. No one's going to forget the mid-terms.
I'm not too worried about the increase in hard-liner democrat turnout, because it will be reciprocated by drumpfkins. The elections are going to be decided by moderates and independents. This is what has me wracking my brains.
I tend to prefer the RCP average to any particular pollster, but you can go see the generic ballot and it's all over the place. Polls are pretty much whatever you want them to be, if your goal is just trying to prove your side is going to win. It makes more sense to look at polls and use them to gauge voter groups. We need to be looking at minority turnout, party hard-liner turnout, and the white working class.
Is it possible that the increased democrat primary turnout is due to the neoliberal vs progressive fight, whereas republicans have been consistently electing the most Trumpian candidate? I could see a lot of the hard-liners who vote in a general not voting in the primary until now.
If we have a solid lead in the senate and maybe 224-226 house seats then I think we can get the wall and repeal obongo care.
If we lose here then our next chance will be 2020-2022 where republicans win back the house and presumably hold the Senate.
McCain single handily ruined Trump's first two years though.
The demographic clock can work in our advantage if we play our cards white. If republican vs democrat explicitly becomes whites vs everyone else then we can expect to break new ground up North. R vs D will never die, but the parties themselves are going to change immensely in the next 50 years.
play our cards right* lol
Blacks aren't growing. GA and NC are safe. Best case scenario is TX and AZ being a pure toss up while the rust-belt flips decisively republican and possibly some of the Northwest and New England.
Obama's approval rating in 2014 was worse than Trump's current rating, according to rcp. This gave the generic ballot 5.7 R. Factor in boomer chads and hopefully lower minority turnout and the dems should do worse. Factor in gerry mandering and their opportunity to pick up seats looks pretty bad. The only reason I'm nervous is the raw strength of their generic ballot polling.
I'm hoping for a Romney redemption arc. It was cool as fuck to see Romney say "I was even harder on illegal immigration than Trump back in 2012 because I opposed DACA." Since he's in an extremely safe seat his only opportunity for career advancement will be to be pro-Trump, so even if he cucks out on something it'll be a different type of cucking out than those guys who are (((moderates))) to get reelected.
I think a lot of those establishmentarians are in office for a reason. You need those types of candidates in order to win in that distritct/state. Someone like Marsha Blackburn wouldn't be doing half as good as Bob Hugin is doing in New Jersey. Kicking them out of safe republican seats and installing an /our guy/ makes sense, but the "moderates" still have their use. The two party system created a spectrum of left vs right, ranging from Maxine Waters to the Uni Party to someone like Bill Posey. Those safe seats are always going to be there, but you need those swing seats in order to actually get anything done. I'd much rather work with the Orrin Hatches of the world to try and get something done than sit in a permanent minority while the left is constantly passing center-left laws. If the United States had a parliamentary system then I'd agree on the necessity of ideological homogeneity among the populist-right, however, we need to think of the current situation like there are 5 parties: The far-left, the center left, the center, the center right, and the far-right. We need a coalition in order to get anything done, and the center-right are the only people who will even speak to us.
agreed
Typical NPCs trying to shut it down whenever someone exposes the simulation.
As a natsoc I'm definitely biased towards an economically left socially right platform.
^
Wasn't Hildawg up by double digits around the grab her by the pussy time?
I had two (2) dreams of us winning the midterms last night.
Are we gonna make it, lads?
It was 227 in the house and 53 in the senate (with 5 races too close to call). Remind me to call the glow in the darks for gibsmedats if that happens.
Is anyone else surprised that Kavanaugh is the only person they've MeToo'd so far? I was expecting them to use it on Heller or Nelson.
ye
yeah whoops
They dumped some bullshit polling giving gillum/nelson an over 5 point lead. Anyone else notice that these obviously bad polls appear at the same time? It happens whenever we start doing well in the generic ballot too.
That campaign trail game is fun, but hard. It took me forever to win as Ford. Also is it possible to get the premium scenarios without paying?
So much damaging shit itt.
It's great that we're finally starting to get some stories in the media that aren't just drumpf twitter shit.
That's exactly what we need to gain momentum. If things are even half as hectic as they were in 2016 then turnout will be great.
^
Republicans have somewhat decent internal polling and data, but this just seems like cherry picking.
Tomorrow is going to be really important for the Senate. If a "blue dog" votes against Kavanaugh we need to crucify him. If someone in a competitive but not red state votes against him then we need to show it to independents and moderates.
Please no. I like the Graham redemption arc, and his speech was kino. But he's not the right guy for AG. We need someone vicious. I unironically think Trump should choose Roy Moore.
Who would you choose then?
^ tbh
Tester and Donnely said they're voting no,
Is that Madison v. Alabama thing any different from regular pleading insanity?
Delaying the vote and getting a solid yes once the blue dogs realize the ball's in Kavanaugh's court is probably better than putting it to the floor now and losing.
I'm not happy with the delay, but I'd be really fucking pissed if he lost his confirmation vote.
I think you guys are overreacting. It's just a one week delay, tops. We're going to get Kavanaugh confirmed.
@GermanEastAfrica They already have other accusers and it hasn't done anything.
Flake said one week at most.
Why are you guys overreacting so much? Kavanaugh is going to be voted on, and he's going to win.
Why the fuck are you people talking about global chaos? Do you think you'd survive a cataclysm if delaying a vote for one week is all it takes for you to give up and go play make-believe online? There's work to be done. Tester, Donnelly, and McCaskil are all not supporting Kavanaugh. We need to be hammering this point home. If you can't even handle something like that then how on earth do you expect to survive nuclear fallout and world wars?
To anyone active in Alaska. It may be a good idea to attack Murkowski over the Kavanaugh thing, so that she'll be weaker in her next primary challenge.
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