Who knows, it's called a surprise for a reason

I think NJ should be a tossup-tilt D.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bob-menendez-hugin-new-jersey_us_5ba40175e4b0375f8f9b6272

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/21/menendez_in_jeopardy_as_senate_challenger_makes_push_138139.html

Due to allegations in Ohio and New Jersey, I am giving those tossup. I am moving North Dakota and Texas from tilt to lean R. New Mexico is changed from Solid D, to Likely D due to Johnson.

Whatever you say retard

At best I would put OH as lean democrat. I definitely wouldn't put OH as a tossup and WV as lean blue. Remember that this entire region is centered around the white working class, so if OH or WI are even close then that means WV and IN went red.

My map would probably be something like: IN tilt red, WV tilt blue, WI and OH lean blue, and MI and PA likely blue.

All these polls are trash

I'm not sure it's fair to call every single poll trash.

I mean, my map is the best.

I don't agree with yours. I'd have FL tilt red, and NV as a pure tossup.

Any poll that has someone above by 10% in a state besides New York, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Illinois, Kentucky, the New England States, or The middle of the country is garbage

@Rhodesiaboo UNLESS that poll has the GOP up 10+

in which case you'd agree with it

I've never seen you contest a poll which favours the GOP.

OH is safe D, WV is likely

yep

you folks'd be calling it solid if the polls were the other way round

One thing that might be worth considering is overestimation of democratic turnout affecting polling down the ballot. Like if they're expecting the dems to be up by 7% and adjust for that then every single election polled would be off if the democrats were only up by 3% in that state.

I definitely have a hard time calling bullshit if the polling aggregate has the democrat up by over 7 points though.

OH-12 is a good predictive measure of Democratic turnout.

and it's big

It's a fucking special election that most people didn't even know was going on, and they still lost. No one's going to forget the mid-terms.

https://thefederalist.com/2018/09/20/huge-spikes-democrat-voter-turnout-across-country-alarm-gop/ - even the federalist notices the signs.

And they're by no means a liberal outlet.

I’m sick and tired of all this Black pilling crap

You 2 are the new Button and Zak

it's not black pilling, dumb cunt. it's being realistic

just because i don't think we'll be winning 60+ seats doesn't mean I'm black pilling.

No you’re a blackpiller

if i hear you making that argument again, i'll send you to mars

I think at best we'll get 55-56 senate seats, at worst 52-53.

You believe these bullshit polls that are completely retarded and made outside of the state, where they completely underpoll Republicans.

I even think we'll win the House by a narrow margin.

So if an internal GOP poll offers a similar polling range to the aggregate, does that mean they're also purposefully undersampling Republicans?

If they’re in the state, then they aren’t

I'm not too worried about the increase in hard-liner democrat turnout, because it will be reciprocated by drumpfkins. The elections are going to be decided by moderates and independents. This is what has me wracking my brains.

@Rhodesiaboo Polls are made through sampling voters in the state. The pollsters are just outside of the state. The RESPONDENTS themselves are in the state.

And you don’t think they only poll Blue areas?

You think ALL of them do? So Rasmussen, a pollster traditionally regarded as having a pro-GOP bias, offers a similar polling range as a pollster traditionally regarded as having a pro-Democrat bias, Rasmussen must ALSO be polling just blue areas?

Even the GOP internal polls have Sherrod Brown ahead around +4 and they pick and choose the statistics which favour them.