Even though he's Collins tier

But that would be because Collins saved Kavanaugh

>california
>not solid red

wtf, new york isn't solidly for jeb?

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/29Dewa

Mistake corrected

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aGWBpa

The situation may be more like this however

There's no way that VA will flip red over Kavanaugh

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2B5Gpa

or like this

that's just ridiculous

Not over Kavanaugh but over the fact we'd have a focal point for anti-Democratic momentum

Nuke, your polls are retarded.

At least I'm not stupid enough to say "retarted"

This is how serious I am about this.

maybe he won't

If he wants to be safe, there's still free money buying "No" for IA-01

>free money

I'm projecting yes.

for IA-01?

Its only $13.80

and he gets $46.20 if he's right

Seems worth the risk

could be (I think Manchin is going to survive though) - I'm just saying that IA-01 is the easiest way to make money without much risk

It's hard predicting the senate map. The problem is that you need to look at it on a large scale rather than just focusing on individual races. For example, if WV and IN flips then WI and OH are going to be closer than expected, because the white working-class went red. Hispanic turnout will be key in AZ and NV. Black turnout in TN and FL. I think there are three possible outcomes: #1. Republicans get BTFO, and the democrats take the majority. #2. Democrats do well, but republicans are able to hang onto a 51 to 53 seat majority. #3 Red wave with 56+ seats.

It is sad that my state has more representation by just pure numbers in the Senate vs. the House

How is SD? Is it like MT, but with less taxes? Or is there a lot more plains and desert?

there's a new poll with Stabenow +13 over John James, but remember

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2014#Polling

Gillespie lagged in the same fashion but almost won in 2014

All these polls seem retarded

It amazes me how inaccurate (((polls))) can be.

https://heavy.com/news/2018/09/who-won-first-cruz-vs-beto-debate/

Vote "Ted Cruz definitely won"

@Rhodesiaboo do you unironically think that the gop will get over sixty seats?

Maybe

@Rhodesiaboo how about we make a bet?

I don’t want to bet money

If you want to bet go on predictit

tbh, I think 55 is sort of reasonable

@ThatRightWingFish If we keep all of our seats and flip North Dakota, Indiana, Florida and Missouri, 51 plus 4 is 55

@ThatRightWingFish Almost every poll shows Rick Scott in the lead. If we turn out in large numbers, it is definitely winnable.

And Claire McCaskill made a grave mistake: refusing to confirm Kavanaugh