Message from @reagent
Discord ID: 492519276658294784
This is what will happen if Kavanaugh wins by a party-line vote.
Even Hugin will win from pro-life turnout
Even though he's Collins tier
But that would be because Collins saved Kavanaugh
>california
>not solid red
wtf, new york isn't solidly for jeb?
Mistake corrected
The situation may be more like this however
There's no way that VA will flip red over Kavanaugh
or like this
that's just ridiculous
Not over Kavanaugh but over the fact we'd have a focal point for anti-Democratic momentum
Nuke, your polls are retarded.
At least I'm not stupid enough to say "retarted"
This is how serious I am about this.
maybe he won't
>free money
I'm projecting yes.
for IA-01?
Its only $13.80
and he gets $46.20 if he's right
Seems worth the risk
could be (I think Manchin is going to survive though) - I'm just saying that IA-01 is the easiest way to make money without much risk
It's hard predicting the senate map. The problem is that you need to look at it on a large scale rather than just focusing on individual races. For example, if WV and IN flips then WI and OH are going to be closer than expected, because the white working-class went red. Hispanic turnout will be key in AZ and NV. Black turnout in TN and FL. I think there are three possible outcomes: #1. Republicans get BTFO, and the democrats take the majority. #2. Democrats do well, but republicans are able to hang onto a 51 to 53 seat majority. #3 Red wave with 56+ seats.
It is sad that my state has more representation by just pure numbers in the Senate vs. the House
How is SD? Is it like MT, but with less taxes? Or is there a lot more plains and desert?
there's a new poll with Stabenow +13 over John James, but remember
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2014#Polling
Gillespie lagged in the same fashion but almost won in 2014
All these polls seem retarded
It amazes me how inaccurate (((polls))) can be.
https://heavy.com/news/2018/09/who-won-first-cruz-vs-beto-debate/
Vote "Ted Cruz definitely won"
@Rhodesiaboo do you unironically think that the gop will get over sixty seats?
Maybe
@Rhodesiaboo how about we make a bet?
I don’t want to bet money
If you want to bet go on predictit
tbh, I think 55 is sort of reasonable