Message from @Linkueigman
Discord ID: 481103073956069386
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL UPDATE
The most important two elections of the night are MN-01 and MN-08. Respectively, it was 47.2k (D) - 42.3k (R) and 64k (D) - 50k (R).
MN-01 was won by Tim Walz in 2016 by 50.4% to 49.6% (he's now running for governor) and is now an open seat. The person who almost won it for the Republican side is John Hagedorn who was nominated for the election AGAIN this year (Good sign). The worry however this time round is that the GOP-Democratic turnout ratio in 2016 marginally favoured the GOP (14.1k (R) - 13.5k (D)) Either way, on both sides primary turnout is many times higher than in 2016. Trump won this district 53-38.
MN-08 is also an open seat and was won by its former incumbent Rick Nolan 50.2% (D) to 49.6% (R) in 2016. Despite difference in primary turnout in 2018 between the parties, Trump won this district 54-39. I cannot find the 2016 primary data (I believe the incumbent and challenger were the sole contestants). I hypothesise this seat is predominantly Democratic but is increasingly Republican in its voting habits. If this is the case, combined with the Democratic loss of the incumbency advantage, this should be a win for the GOP.
In conclusion, I'm slightly confident both seats will flip in favour of the GOP OR one will flip, the MN-01 district being the more likely of the two.
@[Lex] great analysis
Another cause for concern I just saw however is WI-01. Democrat primary turnout exceeded the GOP by 1-2k votes. Republicans exceeded Democrats by around 45k+ votes in 2016 (67k (R)- 15k (D)). We also have a loss of incumbency advantage in addition to this.
@[Lex] And Democrats are energized to take the Speaker seat.
He won't win that
@ThatRightWingFish Most likely not.
But the point is they're gaining.
This has been controlled by Democrats since 1976.
And people thought OH-12 was something
Well I mean I would think that of course the DePizzo campaign has an active interest in saying it's competitive
If you can say it is and you live near it, by all means, campaign for the guy, but I'm not so sure
<@&414474557420994564> https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1031380871755034624
This is the exact same result as 2016
Is that for NH-1 or NH-2
It said the same for whole state to be a blue shift but it was a ton of red victories minus US House and Senate
Whole state
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-550f-d0d5-af75-f5fff0e60001
Tipirneni now trailing Lesko by 9 in her own internal
if this is accurate (probably isn't) it shows that the GOP is improving since April
incumbency advantage makes all the difference
Hello
My House 2018 Prediction based solely off out Cook PVI ratings and predictions by 6 different outlets (see House 2018 Election Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#Election_ratings)
Dark Color = Party Safe
Medium Color = Party Hold
Light Color = Party Gain
Gray = Toss-Up/Conflicting Predictions (ex. - if Cook PVI says R but the predictions say Tilt/Lean/Likely D, then Tossup)
Hopefully we get that map
Current House Composition is 236-193 (R Majority)
So the prediction above gives almost a dozen seat cushion before losing the majority at 217 seats.
I'm looking at the Sabato ratings. Sorry, but they're just retarded.
Thank the lord for the Red Storm Crystal Ball, am I right?
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:
Wisconsin-03: Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat
California-50: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Arizona-02: Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat
Kansas-03: Likely Republican to Safe Republican