@ThatRightWingFish(NJ-01)
can i ask you something

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES

🆙 | **Pielover19 leveled up!**

Thank you!

Iowa: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Nevada: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Oklahoma: Likely Republican to Safe Republican

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/x5w2

I generally agree with your map.

However, I'm a little weaker on Nevada, a little more inclined to call Colorado a toss-up, and maybe a bit more likely to call PA a toss-up as well.

Nevada's R governor is actually quite popular.

The nominee is of a Nevadan political dynasty.

It's still on the border of Likely, just thought that there was a larger change of a Dem upset than first thought.

Oh okay.

Colorado could be a tossup, but there's been such little polling and info that it's basically useless to change.

Yeah I understand that.

Pennsylvania is also shaky. Little polling done there, too.

And Wolf isn't too unpopular.

Yeah, we really lack a line of attack against Wolf, unlike Casey; if anything, Casey could bring him down.

Casey looks like a creep.

I actually think a scandal surrounding him might surface.

Would sink Pennsylvania Democrats.

Indeed.

unfortunately casey is crushing lou in the polls and lou's campaign is seriously mismanaged

lou's campaign manager was supposed to be fired a few weeks ago but he is still around because they dont have anyone who is willing to step in and replace him. the reason for this is the internal numbers do not look good.

complacency is a motherfucker and lou has complacency in spades

he breezed through every election in his life, and the nomination was not even a contest

he thought trump backing him would be enough, but its not. PA is under a weird evolution atm

🆙 | **z8 leveled up!**

barletta has zero support in the cities and the current statewide numbers do not allow for a win without the suburbs of philly and pittsburgh

wolf however has plenty of edges we could erode, unfortunately his opponent is poorly suited to beat him it doesnt matter

this is important and in terms of the larger picture needs to be appreciated. Wasting time dying on the cross to beat wolf will cause the entire state of PA to turn blue

wolf will reinvest his 50 million into every downballot/state senate/legislator, congressional race in the state. He knows he doesnt have to fight to win and will focus his efforts on creating the infrastructure he needs to destroy our states chances at going red in function

it would behoove this group to focus on the state level races, congressional races, and the senatorial race.

wolf will be gone in 4 years, but if we can keep the state reps/ senators red, and get a few wins for the congress, it will pass. If we focus all of our attention to wolf and casey, it will cause su to lose the other winable races and wolf will have the ability to restructure the state as hed like to

something else to consider..... after wolf runs out his second term, Fetterman will be the dems nod for governor in 4 years. He is an openly devout socialist who makes wolf look like tom ridge

Isn't Barletta the Senate nominee?

Mango, who has a solid grass roots till pestering wagner, is going to work for the President. Call it something more than a hunch, but Mango will be rerunning in 4 years for governor and when he runs against fetterman it is a lock

yes

it relates to the gubernatorial discussion

the PA gibernatorial race will effect everyother race depending on what resouces go to it

my main point is focus should be placed on the congressional races first and foremost, then the state level races, then the senate race, and lastly the gubernatorial race

Do you have insider info on the Barletta campaign

How do you know that stuff about his manager

i have insider info on a lot of stuff

told u from the get go i work in the field

and i am a behind the scenes ghost

so i can spout what ii know without much risk

barletta's manager, Cody Jones, is a shitbag who has no place being in his job and everybody in the field knows this including the big guys advising the big guy and they are the hiddenhands behind all of the races

plus, when the big boys say u need to hire someone new, and then the behind the scenes people start looking for someone, and then no one offers their help, it becomes apparent what the situation is

Maybe you should become Barletta's new manager

fuck noo[

im behind thee scenes, which is where i am best suited, also, i have my hands in a few different projects atm that my work allows for, being a memeber of a campaign on the functional inner circle is a 24/7 gig

Hi behind thee scenes, which is where i am best suited, also, i have my hands in a few different projects atm that my work allows for, being a memeber of a campaign on the functional inner circle is a 24/7 gig, I'm Dad!

im not concerned about individual races, im concerned about the overton window shift and the chess board view from 30k feet

Hi not concerned about individual races, im concerned about the overton window shift and the chess board view from 30k feet, I'm Dad!

sound silly i know, but it is what it is, plus to become a campaign manager you need to suck a whole lot of cock, and i am not that guy

not litterally of course

at least i dont think litterally

>not concerned by individual races

what

not concerned with focusing the entireity of my energy and attention on one race

im working on larger shift and presentations of information

Hi working on larger shift and presentations of information, I'm Dad!

If you want you can tell Lou Barletta to hire me

to be focused on one race is to be myopic

I'm not sure how it'd go though.

Hi not sure how it'd go though., I'm Dad!

it wont

Race like White or Race like PA?

political races, and all over the country, not just PA
im working with several nationwide groups in this effort

okay I thought you were talking about something else

i have a bunch of contacts in PA, cuz im from there, but i work all over the country in this effort

@ThatRightWingFish you thought he was talking about biological races?

yes lol

lol

I haven’t looked at polling for Florida recently, is Putnam’s nomination a slam dunk or does DeSantis still have a chance?

DeSantis has a chance.

Gravis polls (Which are pretty bad) actually has him up.

https://www.ydr.com/story/news/2018/04/16/republicans-clash-over-unions-right-work-and-forgotten-voters-trump-won/477831002/

This is bad and shows a critical issue with our info-gathering process that led us to endorse Saccone et al.

Who else would we have endorsed in that race though

I thought we ended up endorsing Mango anyway (The endorsement was changed automatically on his primary victory.) but what I mean is that we thought Wagner was more economically moderate and socially conservative, while it seems that in reality it was the opposite.

I was referring to Saccone

This is pretty much just a consideration for 2019/2020 at this point though.

Oh, Saccone was the very first endorsement. There were two other candidates who were disqualified based on a lack of web presence.

Wasn't even an elective primary though, it was just a party org selection

So it probably doesn't matter

if i was around back then i could have told yall that wagner was a rino through and through, not that it matters now, saccone was the only real choice i the field when he ran as well

but his anti union stance killed him

trumps populist party is pro trade union and that is an important evolution if we intend to win the race on the outskirts of metro areas

Wait, you didn't know he was a RTW hardliner either?

I'm impressed. He must've kept this low-profile.

I think proposing to allow localities is a great compromise to introduce RTW to PA. But proposing to make PA a full-on RTW state when Ohio hasn't done the same is practically suicide.

i knew, it was fairly known, he had been confronted on several occaisions by the state workers unions. A few of those confrontations made it to youtube. He has always been vocal about doing anything he could to make it easier for him to "do business" in pa

PA was paid for. GOP needed Wagners money, Val lied on a few occaisions to the state comittee. This is only one of the fucking thins about this guy and honestly it wasnt even close to the big problems he has, but he has shelled out millions and the old guard donors are sitting on the sidelines in spite.

so for now its his party, even if it means total defeat.

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES

Pennsylvania: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/mbEo

So why are you changing that to Likely

The Wagner campaign has had a slow start. In such a year as 2018, and with Wolf being fairly popular, I don't really see this one flipping.

R.I.P Edge

he is right

its game over

no donors at all stepping in

asher is off the train, turzai never got on it, santorum was with mango, no one is gonna help, and wagz made himnself too close to bannon to get the nationwide support from donors

oh dang

@herm-3x-gr8 blocked me

wrong channel ik

Wait, I think he just left the server

nvm he just left

Lol

@z8#5119

I'll see if I can get him back

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:
Georgia: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xVBV

I disagree.

I think the map is looking better in CT/RI and in maintaining Republican governorships in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, and Georgia.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/rrwo

Tri-color map without shades: Toss-ups represent states where we should focus our efforts.

(I'm actually not sure if Maine should be gray or blue in this case.)

I don't think PA is possible in anyway. So far every poll I could find has wolf with a double digit lead. He has incumbency advantage and is popular. Also, I think he just launched a campaign to raise PA's minimum wage, which is going to fire up all those working class voters in his favor.

Wagner seems like a lost cause. The main idea is to attack Wolf and cut his coattails.

Same with CA.

Governors can quickly rise and drop in popularity.

Also, here's what we should do with these focus maps. You for a positive perspective, me for a realist perspective, and one of the Californian Duo for a blackpilled perspective.

That's effectively the case already, yeah.

My perspective is generally the most realistic, IMO, but I tend to just randomly go "ah yeah this one's going red" too.

No, you're being optomistic.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/7w6k

This isn't as optimistic as it looks.

Keep in mind that other map I made wasn't a projection or prediction; it was just showing which states we should target.

Keep in mind the GOP is doing pretty well in the polls in Oregon.

Illinois is more than likely going blue tho

Illinois is realistically a toss-up; however, I intentionally have no toss-ups on that.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, red HA

Hoping Scott Walker can wing it again

Why tf is MN red!?

what in the hell...

It's a tossup.

Former governor is running for the Rs.

Fail to see how that makes it Republican.

It's a tossup.

>no toss-ups, Tim Pawlenty vs relatively weak Dem

thoughts?

Fair as a no-tossup map

A lot of these Republican ratings should be stronger however.

Kemp is gonna win

That's true, yeah. Also, among the "Likely" Republican predictions here, I see no reason to classify South Dakota or Oklahoma as "Likely" rather than "Safe/Solid".

Don't we have a good guy running in Minnesota?

Jeff Johnson iirc

Yeah. but he's losing in the polls, in part due to the fact that several popular Republicans have endorsed his primary challenger.

Tim Pawlenty

Invincible in a Minnesota GOP primary

Damn

Pawlenty is losing the polls atm but I think that Johnson supporters will switch over once Pawlenty wins the primary.

Another issue for me is that I don't see Scott Walker and Tammy Baldwin winning on the same ballot.

SD is strong red

the natives don't turn out to the polls too hot

hard to get to the polls without a car

letone without alcohol in their case

well

actually

you can legally vote drunk

Don't you guys have a democratic senator or is that North Dakota?

north dakota

^^^

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/Pnwr

My current prediction for the November gubernatorial elections

It'll take some time to get used to these new colors.

Yeah, they're a little weird.

Imagine my shock when I saw gray Nevada on IE's map.

That looks really gross color wise

I pretty much agree.

I like the old tossup color better

I like the tilt feature

What?

Tossup leaves too much uncertainty

That's how elections work though

They're basically never certain.

You're right but I like it.

Some professional predictions already use tilt anyway.

So this is a necessary feature IMO

The real issue is that it's not on anything but the gubernatorial races.

So now we have

Tossup, tilt, lean, likely, and safe?

yes

Not guna lie

kinda gay.

What's gay is not having tilt for Senate, House, or 2020 POTUS

^this

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/DaV5

Alright, gonna reform my ratings now.

@Pielover19 What's your justification for Arizona being likely GOP?

Since the RCP avg. is only +3 to Ducey.

And his approval ratings are abysmal.

tilt imo

@[Lex] The far-left is leading in Arizona Democratic primary polls atm.

Farley?

@Nuke Why is MN tilting Republican.

Yeah, the rcp average has Farley vs. Ducey.

Nope. Farley is losing the primary.

And I'm pretty sure every poll I've seen for WI has Walker losing by near double digits.

Nonetheless, Ducey has a history of reliably outperforming pre-election polling.

David Garcia is winning in the primary polls by a consistent margin of over 20 points.

I see.

Then I understand the rating if it is correct.

He's currently winning in the general election polls, but the majority of them have been internal polls by his own campaign.

So the Tennessee primary elections are tomorrow also.

The one other poll, by Gravis, otherwise had Garcia winning, but with a margin of error three times larger than his lead, and 17% undecided.

TN is an open primary also, so don't be too disheartened if the Democrats' turnout appears energised.

Did you ping me for Nuke'

s map?

Oh, sorry. I must've pinged the wrong person.

Could I see the RS gubernatorial map?

Oh.

The cucked version: The consensus led by CNN and Inside Elections (Rothenberg) is actually "Likely GOP," with a minority "Lean GOP."
The real version: I just don't think Ducey will lose.

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES

Oregon: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat

Colorado: Lean Democrat to Tilt Democrat

Michigan: Lean Democrat to Tilt Democrat

Iowa: Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

Just make a map!

Cam

Can't.

The tilt features won't pull up for me.

Oh

Try the Inside Elections prediction as a base

or just go to the right

and hit + as many times as you can

This is how it looks for me.

and if I hit + then - then +

@Pielover19

Gubernatorial races right ?

not Senatorial ?

Yup.

What app is this?

Yeah.

Not working for me, Nuke.

What app is this?

@Rhodesiaboo not an app

it's 270towin.com

ATTENTION EVERYONE

THIS SERVER HAS BEEN SEIZED BY THE FBI

AN AGENT HAS BEEN APPOINTED TO OVERSEE THE INVESTIGATION

WE EXPECT YOU TO COOPERATE

https://twitter.com/BustyEmpress

THIS IS ELLA

IM RIGHT HERE

Hi RIGHT HERE, I'm Dad!