For the past week PredictIt has had it at 66%

I still don't know how Nate Silver comes up with the numbers he does

I'm no mean statistics guy, but his numbers don't seem to be based on anything

@Salo Saloson he has homemade mathematical models, they basically plug in polling data, demographics, how the place voted last time, into some kind of model that spits out his probabilities.

The models in theory are tested on data from prior elections

... I don't know how much faith I have in his models

historically democrats will rule the house

but I think it's around none

also historically republicans would've won the last election

The polls don't vary that much. It's a small share of the population that starts undecided and shrinks as the campaign goes on. Also, much of who wins is decided by the base's turnout, not swing voters

>tfw state doesn’t have early voting

Mad

@Procella Eques Let's hope the Trump phenomenon continues and he glitches the system once again...

Flying back from England the day before the election to go smash that vote in

No excuses fam

I'm getting my early vote in sometime this week

historically people tend to forget to vote in midterms

and the angry party wins out

not that I really trust my vote to change much

Definitely gonna bet on silvers odds after trump 😂

If you were a naive 20 year old and in Philadelphia on election night, you would have thought he was gonna lose.

everyone of you should vote

voting does matter

Not in Massachusetts

shhh, keep it down, don't let the minorities know

However blackpill any liberal friends you have on it

@johnnyc Are you in Greater Boston, or out west?

Boston

Our republicans are democrats

@johnnyc I vote in NYC just to troll the libs. My district went for Hillary 78%-19%. I'm just happy to show it's not 90%

Lol

I can technically vote in Polish elections

WHO IS THAT 19%?!?!?!

@Jacob you should

lol

<:teehee:381917632359563264>

I want to to, but my dad never got my Polish passport set up when I was younger. I could do it now, but I would have to fly to Los Angeles

I was honestly pretty pissed, because he essentially blocked my vote

I think Roman Dmowski was Piłsudski's rival who was more nationalistic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Dmowski

I know very little about polish history