And at the same time there was one which showed him up by 6

He overperformed, but it wasn't a 100% repudiation of the polls within that state

the polls were off because they were taken before the last minute swing
voters who decided in the last week of the election went strongly for trump @FLanon

Nate Silver is known for being wrong on many occasions, which makes sense given his *natural* bias.

https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/1048659512805281792
https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/1048660631438725120

good datapoint in Missouri

pretty great!

SD 34 is slightly more Democratic than the State as a whole.

2016 President: Trump +17.7 (state R+18.5 )
2016 Senate: Blunt +0.8 (state R+2.8 )
2012 Senate: McCaskill +17.8 (state D+15.7 )

so that's basically a Hawley+7 poll

McCaskill is in serious trouble, and most of the Atlas dems will have a lot of egg in their face when she loses (I'd say there's at least 60% chance she does)

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/gop-senators-receive-death-threats-on-their-personal-cell-phones-after-kavanaugh-confirmed/

Wow

I understand that we all secretly want to kill each other, but I'm always amazed at how bad leftists are at PR. No wonder they control the media; they need it.

@Julien Blanc Yep, and the left is rabid enough at the moment to possibly act on those actions. They believe this is the end of Roe v Wade.

I wonder what the opinion on Kavanaugh is in each state

All 50 states are unanimous that he's a rapist

This true?

No

Do we have a map?

Check reuters polling.

They have data like that

I don’t like Reuters but whatever

but of course

they are biased

Okay then maybe you should ask the wind.

@Rhodesiaboo genius

Abuse

CBS/YouGov Senate polls
Texas: Cruz - 50; O'Rourke - 44
Arizona: Sinema - 47; McSally - 44
Tennessee: Blackburn - 50; Bredesen - 42
New Jersey: Menendez - 49; Hugin - 39

looks like the Democratic path to the Senate is closing shut

Just saw those polls. Their methodology in terms of weighting is as good as it gets, but the fact that it's an online poll is a bit iffy.

Sinema and Menendez leading is kind of unfortunate though. With Manchin voting to confirm our path to 55+ is getting narrower.

Menendez was never going to lsoe

If this were a 2010 or 2014, Hugin would have won by 5 points or more.

I think this is our current worst case scenario, which isn't too bad.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/ln0p62

Best case scenario is probably this. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aZmpGl

An inbetween scenario: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/lgb6y8

I still think NV and NZ will be heading our way though.

We had an opportunity to make something happen in the rust belt, but the candidates there don't have the money or name recognition. Ceterus paribus WI and WV are the only ones I could see us flipping, but Manchin voting to confirm makes WV seem a lot less likely, and it's hard to imagine WI being the only state to flip.

I could be wrong though. Those candidates could ride low-money obscurity into a win purely based on voters wanting to support Trump.