I still expect to win TN, but I think ND is more likely at this point.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/l7Zvb8

What's with PA?

We're more likely to get NJ at this point than that

A dude who built his career on the pro-life community, whose father was the _Casey_ suing to overturn _Roe_ in _Planned Parenthood v. Casey_, voted against Kavanaugh, and voted for federal funding of the very organization his father wanted to essentially outlaw.

I think we have to wait for polling to come on this issue before we begin jumping to conclusions on that

This very well may have harmed him in the way you described, we need to see that evident in further polling before we can change ratings though

there were polls that had Hillary at double digit leads in Pennsylvania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Pennsylvania

Casey will win very easily

There was a poll that had Hillary leading Trump in Ohio by 10

@Rhodesiaboo no there wasnt

🆙 | **AnonFrom/b/ leveled up!**

a poll from mid-october wouldn't have mattered since trump regained his momentum by the end of the month

They still believed Hillary would have won the state

@AnonFrom/b/ where's that from? 538?

the 2016 forecast yeah

@Rhodesiaboo but they showed her losing it

The last poll said Clinton was up by 1

And at the same time there was one which showed him up by 6

He overperformed, but it wasn't a 100% repudiation of the polls within that state

the polls were off because they were taken before the last minute swing
voters who decided in the last week of the election went strongly for trump @FLanon

Nate Silver is known for being wrong on many occasions, which makes sense given his *natural* bias.

https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/1048659512805281792
https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/1048660631438725120

good datapoint in Missouri

pretty great!

SD 34 is slightly more Democratic than the State as a whole.

2016 President: Trump +17.7 (state R+18.5 )
2016 Senate: Blunt +0.8 (state R+2.8 )
2012 Senate: McCaskill +17.8 (state D+15.7 )

so that's basically a Hawley+7 poll

McCaskill is in serious trouble, and most of the Atlas dems will have a lot of egg in their face when she loses (I'd say there's at least 60% chance she does)

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/gop-senators-receive-death-threats-on-their-personal-cell-phones-after-kavanaugh-confirmed/

Wow

I understand that we all secretly want to kill each other, but I'm always amazed at how bad leftists are at PR. No wonder they control the media; they need it.

@Julien Blanc Yep, and the left is rabid enough at the moment to possibly act on those actions. They believe this is the end of Roe v Wade.

I wonder what the opinion on Kavanaugh is in each state

All 50 states are unanimous that he's a rapist

This true?

No

Do we have a map?

Check reuters polling.