Message from @Amsel
Discord ID: 498526937900384256
This true?
No
Do we have a map?
Check reuters polling.
They have data like that
I don’t like Reuters but whatever
but of course
they are biased
Okay then maybe you should ask the wind.
@Rhodesiaboo genius
Abuse
CBS/YouGov Senate polls
Texas: Cruz - 50; O'Rourke - 44
Arizona: Sinema - 47; McSally - 44
Tennessee: Blackburn - 50; Bredesen - 42
New Jersey: Menendez - 49; Hugin - 39
looks like the Democratic path to the Senate is closing shut
Just saw those polls. Their methodology in terms of weighting is as good as it gets, but the fact that it's an online poll is a bit iffy.
Sinema and Menendez leading is kind of unfortunate though. With Manchin voting to confirm our path to 55+ is getting narrower.
Menendez was never going to lsoe
If this were a 2010 or 2014, Hugin would have won by 5 points or more.
I think this is our current worst case scenario, which isn't too bad.
Best case scenario is probably this. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aZmpGl
I still think NV and NZ will be heading our way though.
We had an opportunity to make something happen in the rust belt, but the candidates there don't have the money or name recognition. Ceterus paribus WI and WV are the only ones I could see us flipping, but Manchin voting to confirm makes WV seem a lot less likely, and it's hard to imagine WI being the only state to flip.
I could be wrong though. Those candidates could ride low-money obscurity into a win purely based on voters wanting to support Trump.
The only R's to outspend their opponents have been self-funding businessmen and incumbents. If republicans had a stronger ground game then they might've made up for that deficit though. The RNC did a really good job with their big data side of things and they're better fundraisers than the DNC. After this election they need to build up a stronger long-term ground game and ability to disseminate information. The Koch brothers have a pretty good set-up with AFP, but they seem lethargic this year because of Trump.
Best case scenario would be this
Make the MN special election red and NM blue and that's my republican landslide scenario.
I made NM a tossup for if Gary Johnson wins there
Do you think Gary would have won if he declared his candidacy back in January, or if he ran as a republican?
Probably Back in January
@Amsel If you're going for "scenarios," don't write likelihoods into all of them. Just make predictions.
New Mexico might elect Johnson.
We don't even know if Johnson is in second.
Republican and Democratic internals, as well as several independent polls, show Rich in second.
Polling isn't frequent or good in New Mexico.
Indeed.
Especially with a three-way contest
Would be crazy if Johnson won.
If Rich has dropped out, Johnson would’ve had a chance. Not now
I severely doubt Johnson has a chance
I think we're more likely to get MN-sp than WV at this point