Message from @reagent
Discord ID: 498524694333620225
SD 34 is slightly more Democratic than the State as a whole.
2016 President: Trump +17.7 (state R+18.5 )
2016 Senate: Blunt +0.8 (state R+2.8 )
2012 Senate: McCaskill +17.8 (state D+15.7 )
so that's basically a Hawley+7 poll
McCaskill is in serious trouble, and most of the Atlas dems will have a lot of egg in their face when she loses (I'd say there's at least 60% chance she does)
Wow
I understand that we all secretly want to kill each other, but I'm always amazed at how bad leftists are at PR. No wonder they control the media; they need it.
@Julien Blanc Yep, and the left is rabid enough at the moment to possibly act on those actions. They believe this is the end of Roe v Wade.
I wonder what the opinion on Kavanaugh is in each state
All 50 states are unanimous that he's a rapist
This true?
No
Do we have a map?
Check reuters polling.
They have data like that
I don’t like Reuters but whatever
but of course
they are biased
Okay then maybe you should ask the wind.
@Rhodesiaboo genius
Abuse
CBS/YouGov Senate polls
Texas: Cruz - 50; O'Rourke - 44
Arizona: Sinema - 47; McSally - 44
Tennessee: Blackburn - 50; Bredesen - 42
New Jersey: Menendez - 49; Hugin - 39
looks like the Democratic path to the Senate is closing shut
Just saw those polls. Their methodology in terms of weighting is as good as it gets, but the fact that it's an online poll is a bit iffy.
Sinema and Menendez leading is kind of unfortunate though. With Manchin voting to confirm our path to 55+ is getting narrower.
Menendez was never going to lsoe
If this were a 2010 or 2014, Hugin would have won by 5 points or more.
I think this is our current worst case scenario, which isn't too bad.
Best case scenario is probably this. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aZmpGl
An inbetween scenario: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/lgb6y8
I still think NV and NZ will be heading our way though.
We had an opportunity to make something happen in the rust belt, but the candidates there don't have the money or name recognition. Ceterus paribus WI and WV are the only ones I could see us flipping, but Manchin voting to confirm makes WV seem a lot less likely, and it's hard to imagine WI being the only state to flip.
I could be wrong though. Those candidates could ride low-money obscurity into a win purely based on voters wanting to support Trump.
The only R's to outspend their opponents have been self-funding businessmen and incumbents. If republicans had a stronger ground game then they might've made up for that deficit though. The RNC did a really good job with their big data side of things and they're better fundraisers than the DNC. After this election they need to build up a stronger long-term ground game and ability to disseminate information. The Koch brothers have a pretty good set-up with AFP, but they seem lethargic this year because of Trump.
Best case scenario would be this
Make the MN special election red and NM blue and that's my republican landslide scenario.
I made NM a tossup for if Gary Johnson wins there
Do you think Gary would have won if he declared his candidacy back in January, or if he ran as a republican?
Probably Back in January
@Amsel If you're going for "scenarios," don't write likelihoods into all of them. Just make predictions.
New Mexico might elect Johnson.