Message from @ThatRightWingFish
Discord ID: 479017381583388673
"If candidates don't run arm-in-arm with Trump, EVEN IN RED DISTRICTS, they will be in trouble. "
"Also, starting in the next couple of weeks, the OH GOP is sending mailers to all Republicans urging them to vote early, and to address concerns people have about voting early. The reason for this has to do with the GOP's research that shows that people voting early tend to vote more consistently the whole ticket/slate of candidates than people who vote in the booth. They find their down ticket races have much better results with a lot of early votes. "
@Pielover19 I didn't respond because I didn't see why it was such a big deal
@Pielover19 @🎃Boo-ton🎃 Tilt now available on House maps on 270ToWin
BUTTONS GIRL FRIEND HAS DYED HAIR
@🎃Boo-ton🎃 AND YOU TOLD ME HOW YOU WERE A SAVIOR OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION
My mind is fuckin blown right now, I bet she has a tattoo.
<#432618126295695380>
I'm sorry Associate Lord Emperor Nuke, I was just so excited.
Hi sorry Associate Lord Emperor Nuke, I was just so excited., I'm Dad!
come to vc
Who are we backing for WI-01
I believe his name is Steil
Very Interested on how Nehlen does though
It's Style.
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL UPDATE
The most important two elections of the night are MN-01 and MN-08. Respectively, it was 47.2k (D) - 42.3k (R) and 64k (D) - 50k (R).
MN-01 was won by Tim Walz in 2016 by 50.4% to 49.6% (he's now running for governor) and is now an open seat. The person who almost won it for the Republican side is John Hagedorn who was nominated for the election AGAIN this year (Good sign). The worry however this time round is that the GOP-Democratic turnout ratio in 2016 marginally favoured the GOP (14.1k (R) - 13.5k (D)) Either way, on both sides primary turnout is many times higher than in 2016. Trump won this district 53-38.
MN-08 is also an open seat and was won by its former incumbent Rick Nolan 50.2% (D) to 49.6% (R) in 2016. Despite difference in primary turnout in 2018 between the parties, Trump won this district 54-39. I cannot find the 2016 primary data (I believe the incumbent and challenger were the sole contestants). I hypothesise this seat is predominantly Democratic but is increasingly Republican in its voting habits. If this is the case, combined with the Democratic loss of the incumbency advantage, this should be a win for the GOP.
In conclusion, I'm slightly confident both seats will flip in favour of the GOP OR one will flip, the MN-01 district being the more likely of the two.
@[Lex] great analysis
Another cause for concern I just saw however is WI-01. Democrat primary turnout exceeded the GOP by 1-2k votes. Republicans exceeded Democrats by around 45k+ votes in 2016 (67k (R)- 15k (D)). We also have a loss of incumbency advantage in addition to this.
@[Lex] And Democrats are energized to take the Speaker seat.
He won't win that
@ThatRightWingFish Most likely not.
But the point is they're gaining.
This has been controlled by Democrats since 1976.
And people thought OH-12 was something
Well I mean I would think that of course the DePizzo campaign has an active interest in saying it's competitive
If you can say it is and you live near it, by all means, campaign for the guy, but I'm not so sure
<@&414474557420994564> https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1031380871755034624
This is the exact same result as 2016
Is that for NH-1 or NH-2