Now, I don't expect that, but we've definitely improved since the last rating.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/0VBg4rl

Made a few adjustments.

Will Hurd might be tilt R at this point

Still very skeptical of polling there.

@FLanon Go to the 538 house poll aggregate https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/

It's reported in today's polls. Granted, the pollster is not given a grade by 538, so I'm not sure how credible it is. But Hurd has surprisingly been up in just about every poll for a long time, he'll win by at least 6 or 7 points imo.

Conducted by the Congressional Leadership Fund

So it's an internal

I would advise caution when it comes to those polls, however a *25 point lead* is quite drastic

I would consider putting this race in the toss-up column

And Hurd led by about 10 in the Siena poll

It's actually probably Lean R

Hurd is secure

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=24&v=p6k70Qp8mfE

Hurd will win. That state senate special election proved it

yep

TX might not see any flips

there's a chance for no flips in FL as well

whereas, NJ could see us lose like a fourth of the margin by itself

FL-27 is a guaranteed loss imo

disagree

Shalala is running a trash campaign, and Salazar is basically the best GOP candidate available

national climate might be too much

but there's a chance there

Rubio only lost the district by 1%, and Murphy was a more compelling candidate than Shalala

also, Shalala's campaign released an internal that had them only up 4%, which indicates that it is a tossup

quite interesting, thanks for the data

shieeet

Shalala was one of the trashiest candidates the dems picked up this cycle. I really hope Salazar wins.

I think the only Texas flip will be Sessions, and maybe Culberson. If I had to choose rn, I'd say only Sessions loses.

What margins are you guys expecting and what do you think the results will be? Tbh I think republicans hold the house if the democrats don't break 5%.

don't break 5%? What do you mean? You're saying GOP holds if the Generic Congressional Ballot is less than D+5 ?

yes

the common figure i see cited is that D+7 is the turning point though

I think the GOP will be able to skate by with a margin on the worse side, because of how concentrated Dem strength and enthusiasm is now

after the Kavanaugh debacle, I doubt Democrats in, say, Missouri are really more energized than Republicans

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

With less than a month to Election Day, the Generic Congressional Ballot is now dead even.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 45% would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, 47% of voters said they would choose the Democratic candidate while 42% said they would choose the Republican. It is unclear whether the sudden jump to a tie vote is a reflection of the anger surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation process, but we will continue to watch this in the weeks ahead.

Bless thee, Rasmussen.