Message from @FLanon

Discord ID: 497891923177242646


2018-10-05 14:34:20 UTC  

Is 270ToWin's House page down for you? @Pielover19

2018-10-05 15:01:00 UTC  

he probably calls his dad a cuck when he advocates for amnesty

2018-10-05 16:41:55 UTC  

I’d hang out with Flakes son

2018-10-05 19:10:58 UTC  

Will Hurd is up 25 points in a poll released today

2018-10-05 19:11:25 UTC  

You have a link?

2018-10-05 19:11:30 UTC  

That is insane

2018-10-05 20:32:47 UTC  

We might actually gain seats in the house.

2018-10-05 20:32:56 UTC  

I need to entirely redo my ratings.

2018-10-05 20:37:02 UTC  

@Pielover19 wow you think so?

2018-10-05 20:37:04 UTC  

a net gain?

2018-10-05 20:37:22 UTC  

I mean, it's not unreasonable to think we may gain some seats like

2018-10-05 20:37:24 UTC  

MN-08

2018-10-05 20:37:24 UTC  

I can't find the Will Hurd poll

2018-10-05 20:43:04 UTC  

If things go really well.

2018-10-05 20:43:21 UTC  

We might pull off the Karen districts, and get the Trump districts while we're at it.

2018-10-05 20:43:43 UTC  

Those, plus some Minnesota and New Hampshire pickups, and we might pull it off.

2018-10-05 20:44:02 UTC  

Now, I don't expect that, but we've definitely improved since the last rating.

2018-10-05 22:02:48 UTC  

Made a few adjustments.

2018-10-05 22:04:44 UTC  

Will Hurd might be tilt R at this point

2018-10-05 22:05:36 UTC  

Still very skeptical of polling there.

2018-10-05 22:50:22 UTC  
2018-10-05 22:52:02 UTC  

It's reported in today's polls. Granted, the pollster is not given a grade by 538, so I'm not sure how credible it is. But Hurd has surprisingly been up in just about every poll for a long time, he'll win by at least 6 or 7 points imo.

2018-10-05 22:55:15 UTC  

Conducted by the Congressional Leadership Fund

2018-10-05 22:55:19 UTC  

So it's an internal

2018-10-05 22:55:40 UTC  

I would advise caution when it comes to those polls, however a *25 point lead* is quite drastic

2018-10-05 22:55:55 UTC  

I would consider putting this race in the toss-up column

2018-10-05 22:56:05 UTC  

And Hurd led by about 10 in the Siena poll

2018-10-05 22:56:19 UTC  

It's actually probably Lean R

2018-10-05 22:56:24 UTC  

Hurd is secure

2018-10-06 05:34:55 UTC  

Hurd will win. That state senate special election proved it

2018-10-06 05:41:15 UTC  

yep

2018-10-06 05:49:06 UTC  

TX might not see any flips

2018-10-06 05:49:15 UTC  

there's a chance for no flips in FL as well

2018-10-06 05:49:29 UTC  

whereas, NJ could see us lose like a fourth of the margin by itself

2018-10-06 05:49:52 UTC  

FL-27 is a guaranteed loss imo

2018-10-06 05:50:31 UTC  

disagree

2018-10-06 05:50:49 UTC  

Shalala is running a trash campaign, and Salazar is basically the best GOP candidate available

2018-10-06 05:51:04 UTC  

national climate might be too much