Message from @FLanon
Discord ID: 497904649660137483
You have a link?
That is insane
We might actually gain seats in the house.
I need to entirely redo my ratings.
@Pielover19 wow you think so?
a net gain?
I mean, it's not unreasonable to think we may gain some seats like
MN-08
I can't find the Will Hurd poll
If things go really well.
We might pull off the Karen districts, and get the Trump districts while we're at it.
Those, plus some Minnesota and New Hampshire pickups, and we might pull it off.
Now, I don't expect that, but we've definitely improved since the last rating.
Made a few adjustments.
Will Hurd might be tilt R at this point
Still very skeptical of polling there.
@FLanon Go to the 538 house poll aggregate https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/
It's reported in today's polls. Granted, the pollster is not given a grade by 538, so I'm not sure how credible it is. But Hurd has surprisingly been up in just about every poll for a long time, he'll win by at least 6 or 7 points imo.
Conducted by the Congressional Leadership Fund
I would advise caution when it comes to those polls, however a *25 point lead* is quite drastic
I would consider putting this race in the toss-up column
And Hurd led by about 10 in the Siena poll
It's actually probably Lean R
Hurd is secure
Hurd will win. That state senate special election proved it
yep
TX might not see any flips
there's a chance for no flips in FL as well
whereas, NJ could see us lose like a fourth of the margin by itself
FL-27 is a guaranteed loss imo
disagree
Shalala is running a trash campaign, and Salazar is basically the best GOP candidate available
national climate might be too much
but there's a chance there
Rubio only lost the district by 1%, and Murphy was a more compelling candidate than Shalala
also, Shalala's campaign released an internal that had them only up 4%, which indicates that it is a tossup
quite interesting, thanks for the data