Message from @reagent
Discord ID: 498008821554216961
We might pull off the Karen districts, and get the Trump districts while we're at it.
Those, plus some Minnesota and New Hampshire pickups, and we might pull it off.
Now, I don't expect that, but we've definitely improved since the last rating.
Made a few adjustments.
Will Hurd might be tilt R at this point
Still very skeptical of polling there.
@FLanon Go to the 538 house poll aggregate https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/
It's reported in today's polls. Granted, the pollster is not given a grade by 538, so I'm not sure how credible it is. But Hurd has surprisingly been up in just about every poll for a long time, he'll win by at least 6 or 7 points imo.
Conducted by the Congressional Leadership Fund
So it's an internal
I would advise caution when it comes to those polls, however a *25 point lead* is quite drastic
I would consider putting this race in the toss-up column
And Hurd led by about 10 in the Siena poll
It's actually probably Lean R
Hurd is secure
Hurd will win. That state senate special election proved it
yep
TX might not see any flips
whereas, NJ could see us lose like a fourth of the margin by itself
FL-27 is a guaranteed loss imo
disagree
Shalala is running a trash campaign, and Salazar is basically the best GOP candidate available
national climate might be too much
but there's a chance there
Rubio only lost the district by 1%, and Murphy was a more compelling candidate than Shalala
also, Shalala's campaign released an internal that had them only up 4%, which indicates that it is a tossup
quite interesting, thanks for the data
shieeet
Shalala was one of the trashiest candidates the dems picked up this cycle. I really hope Salazar wins.
I think the only Texas flip will be Sessions, and maybe Culberson. If I had to choose rn, I'd say only Sessions loses.
What margins are you guys expecting and what do you think the results will be? Tbh I think republicans hold the house if the democrats don't break 5%.
don't break 5%? What do you mean? You're saying GOP holds if the Generic Congressional Ballot is less than D+5 ?
yes
the common figure i see cited is that D+7 is the turning point though
I think the GOP will be able to skate by with a margin on the worse side, because of how concentrated Dem strength and enthusiasm is now
after the Kavanaugh debacle, I doubt Democrats in, say, Missouri are really more energized than Republicans