So it's an internal

I would advise caution when it comes to those polls, however a *25 point lead* is quite drastic

I would consider putting this race in the toss-up column

And Hurd led by about 10 in the Siena poll

It's actually probably Lean R

Hurd is secure

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=24&v=p6k70Qp8mfE

Hurd will win. That state senate special election proved it

yep

TX might not see any flips

there's a chance for no flips in FL as well

whereas, NJ could see us lose like a fourth of the margin by itself

FL-27 is a guaranteed loss imo

disagree

Shalala is running a trash campaign, and Salazar is basically the best GOP candidate available

national climate might be too much

but there's a chance there

Rubio only lost the district by 1%, and Murphy was a more compelling candidate than Shalala

also, Shalala's campaign released an internal that had them only up 4%, which indicates that it is a tossup

quite interesting, thanks for the data

shieeet

Shalala was one of the trashiest candidates the dems picked up this cycle. I really hope Salazar wins.

I think the only Texas flip will be Sessions, and maybe Culberson. If I had to choose rn, I'd say only Sessions loses.

What margins are you guys expecting and what do you think the results will be? Tbh I think republicans hold the house if the democrats don't break 5%.

don't break 5%? What do you mean? You're saying GOP holds if the Generic Congressional Ballot is less than D+5 ?

yes

the common figure i see cited is that D+7 is the turning point though

I think the GOP will be able to skate by with a margin on the worse side, because of how concentrated Dem strength and enthusiasm is now

after the Kavanaugh debacle, I doubt Democrats in, say, Missouri are really more energized than Republicans

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

With less than a month to Election Day, the Generic Congressional Ballot is now dead even.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 45% would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, 47% of voters said they would choose the Democratic candidate while 42% said they would choose the Republican. It is unclear whether the sudden jump to a tie vote is a reflection of the anger surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation process, but we will continue to watch this in the weeks ahead.

Bless thee, Rasmussen.

Wow

That's pretty huge.

Let's keep the fight up hard and get that to +R on the generics

But muh CNN poll! Where Dems were leading by 18 points with seniors! Totally more believable!

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/politics/texas-beto-orourke-evangelicals-women.html

I wonder how many of these there are

The women, who are all in their 30s, described Mr. O’Rourke as providing a stark moral contrast to Mr. Trump, whose policies and behavior they see as fundamentally anti-Christian, especially separating immigrant children from their parents at the border, banning many Muslim refugees and disrespecting women.

“I care as much about babies at the border as I do about babies in the womb,” said Tess Clarke, one of Ms. Mooney’s friends, confessing that she was “mortified” at how she used to vote, because she had only considered abortion policy. “We’ve been asleep. Now, we’ve woke up.”

Right, keeping Muslims out of our territory is "fundamentally anti-Christian"

I definitely believe the New York Times on this