What's the election day?

you guys need to realize that the reason these swings are happening is partly a candidate vs candidate issue

it's not just Democratic enthusiasm

for instance, the swing in Alabama was so large because of Moore's scandal

the one in PA-18 was because Lamb was specifically targetting the demographics based on issues they found important, same for AZ-08

Lamb and Tipirneni were the more hard working candidates

there is no guarantee that the Democrat running in OH-12 will be the same

What were the circumstances that caused whatever incumbent to resign?

Because PA-18 and AZ-08 were both scandal based

OH-12, the incumbent resigned to do this business thing

not a scandal

https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_12th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2018

some people might want you to believe that the shifts have SOLELY been due to Democratic enthusiasm and Drumpf being 'bad'

Alright so we can probably pull it off

State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) have received the most political and financial support in the field of 10 Republican candidates. Defending Main Street spent $240,000 on a cable and digital ad buy to support Balderson in April 2018, while Leneghan rounded up endorsements from the House Freedom Caucus and Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Jim Jordan (R-N.C.).

Among the seven Democratic candidates, Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D) has been backed by party leaders in the state, including Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) and Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).

so the Democratic candidate is likely Danny O'Connor

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/01/franklin_county_recorder_danny.html

hmm

"The 31-year-old Shelby County native has a bachelor's degree in political science from Wright State University and a law degree from Syracuse University. If elected, O'Connor would be younger than any currently serving member of Congress."

unless he has some severe flaws, not a good sign

http://baldersonforcongress.com/

^male R candidate

http://www.sunburynews.com/news/12392/leneghan-joins-crowded-12th-district-house-race?link_id=44&can_id=813ddae1c80ce0cbef5ca4a0133ee456&source=email-morning-digest-our-new-legislative-open-seat-tracker-shows-signs-of-a-2018-democratic-wave-election&email_referrer=email_290761&email_subject=morning-digest-our-new-legislative-open-seat-tracker-shows-signs-of-a-2018-democratic-wave-election

^female R candidate

https://www.predictit.org/Market/4254/Which-party-will-win-the-2018-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Ohio%27s-12th-district

lol PredictIt has it at 50/50 right now

"Trivia about the Ohio 12th district: according to Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/Ohi... the college graduation rate in this district is 37 %, the highest college graduation rate of all 16 Ohio congressional districts by a good margin. For another comparison, the college graduation rate in the Arizona 6th district (yesterday's special election) is 28 %. Why am I posting this - dunno, can't imagine how college graduation rate has anything to do with special elections :-)"

http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1525123304689.png

I wonder what effect this will have

Pretty big

Millenials are major part of the Obama Coalition

Also Bernie's supporters were disportionately White Male Millenials (Bernie Bros)

But according to this poll the majority of them now support the GOP

Rightwing Populist in Europe parties tend to have a lot of young supporters

I don't see why this couldn't also become the case in the US with the GOP becoming more Populist

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/apr/30/democratic-party-losing-support-of-young-voters-sa/

Oh my god

I just saw this too.

@RoastedAdawg it won't matter, it's just one poll.

They'll get the voters back, if not they'll be replaced by immigrant voters

Voter Registration in WV

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 WV was always a democratic state because of coal miners and industrial workers

It's a Trump state, not a Republican state

It's changed recently of course, but that's the truth.