Message from @DrYuriMom

Discord ID: 687861415624572942


2020-03-07 03:15:31 UTC  

No

2020-03-07 03:15:56 UTC  

Yes go cry about a tree or something

2020-03-09 01:29:59 UTC  

Oh

2020-03-10 01:08:21 UTC  

The Babylon Bee is being barely satirical. They are almost acting like The New York Times for some good laughs:
https://babylonbee.com/news/op-ed-if-people-wont-elect-the-most-unlikable-women-on-the-planet-will-they-elect-any-women

2020-03-10 01:50:56 UTC  

You should probably try reading something else besides Babylon Bee

2020-03-10 01:51:14 UTC  

You really seem to like it...I think it might be hurting your brain though

2020-03-10 01:51:48 UTC  

Reading in general should be good for you, but I doubt you do more than look at the headlines and pictures

2020-03-10 01:52:34 UTC  

"good laughs" indeed <:honk:583238347124637707>

2020-03-10 08:58:54 UTC  

Trump is dead

2020-03-10 10:38:54 UTC  

<:lies:591248716766248962>

2020-03-10 21:26:58 UTC  

Old news, but DAMNIT PUTIN

2020-03-13 01:42:20 UTC  

Why is my school shutting down for 2 weeks over some damn Corona virus. The flu kills more people it isn't even THAT serious

2020-03-13 01:42:21 UTC  

GG @Butternuggetz, you just advanced to level 4!

2020-03-13 01:42:35 UTC  

GG @elizaaaa, you just advanced to level 1!

2020-03-13 02:08:26 UTC  

Trying to blunt the spike to keep resources from bei g overwhelmed

2020-03-13 02:09:27 UTC  

It's the best way to reduce the 1 million dead estimate I and others have predicted in each of US and EU

2020-03-13 02:30:14 UTC  

Also because schools are among the worst areas for a virus to spread in

2020-03-13 02:30:57 UTC  

This virus' death rate from confirmed resolved cases is 7% also, which is 70 times the flu's average death rate of .1%

2020-03-13 03:10:23 UTC  

We still don't know the denominator. There are a lot of younger cases that never get reported

2020-03-13 03:15:41 UTC  

Look at the Diamond Princess which is probably the most perfect numbers we'll ever see. 7 deaths and 325 recovered. That's about 2.15%.

2020-03-13 03:17:41 UTC  

If you look at total infected, it's 7 deaths for 696 cases, or exactly 1%

2020-03-13 03:17:52 UTC  

Assuming no more deaths

2020-03-13 03:18:29 UTC  

My best estimate all along has been 0.7% mortality as a conservative number. I'm sticking with that for the overall population. A cruise ship tends toward older people.

2020-03-13 03:19:41 UTC  

I also estimate 40-50% of people will get it. For the US: 327 million Americans * 0.45 contracting * 0.007 mortality = 1.03 million dead

2020-03-13 03:21:37 UTC  

That number may be lower if we can stretch this out through rational measures. The more we slow this, the more people we can prevent from getting it before we have a vaccine. The key is reducing the 40-50% infected rate.

2020-03-13 03:22:30 UTC  

Banning travel between countries and destroying our economy is not a rational measure, by the way

2020-03-13 03:22:53 UTC  

the Diamond Princess numbers are not perfect though, this is a very isolated case that had access to a number of health professionals. It's very unwise to treat this as some sort of baseline, since populations on the mainland likely won't recieve nearly as much care as the cases on the cruise did.

2020-03-13 03:23:14 UTC  

My numbers are for the US or another western developed country

2020-03-13 03:23:23 UTC  

How exactly is restricting travel from heavily affected countries not a good measure to take?

2020-03-13 03:23:31 UTC  

And they assume we can spred this out a bit for older people

2020-03-13 03:23:49 UTC  

Because almost no one under 60 is dying from this

2020-03-13 03:24:11 UTC  

We need to be isolating those over 60 or those with immunodeficiencies

2020-03-13 03:24:46 UTC  

The rest need to keep working to keep the economy going. It's going to be 18 months before a vaccine. We can't just shut the world down for a year and a half.

2020-03-13 03:25:07 UTC  

This is a marathon, not a sprint

2020-03-13 03:25:40 UTC  

I'm ready to get sick with this thing. Given my vocation, my duty, it's pretty much a given.

2020-03-13 03:25:49 UTC  

But I'm 50 years old and reasonably healthy, I'll be fine.

2020-03-13 03:27:38 UTC  

My parents are 75 and 77 years old. We've pretty much sealed them up. I won't get to see them for potentially a very long time. They've got two caregivers that barely see anyone else. They will be using precautions. It's unfortunate but they have cable and internet and will be quite busy yelling at the TV or computer as Biden and Trump rant at each other.

2020-03-13 03:28:12 UTC  

When they're vaccinated, we can return to some semblance of normality with them

2020-03-13 03:29:48 UTC  

The vast, vast majority of people under 50 have mild symptoms not much different from a cold. Kids don't even generally show symptoms. Why should we be cancelling classes?

2020-03-13 03:33:02 UTC  

You're drawing your numbers from the stats on the Diamond Princess though, which you should know still has about 300 active cases roughly- too many to make a final conclusion now even in spite of the other problems with using this. This assumes that the same amount of care given to those on the cruise ship will be given to everyone nationwide, which isn't going to happen because hospitals will become overburdened and because the U.S.'s response has been slowed. You already see this with South Korea, Italy, Germany, France, and many other countries.