Message from @sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ
Discord ID: 679684832753745929
Approval is not electoral performance
<:political_thinking:583244726040264704>
The lost support is the landslides against trump in 2017, 2018, 2019
All of which conformed to the generic ballot
But the approval ratings suggest otherwise.
Which is currently dem +6
This is about Trump, not his party.
I’m talking about actual votes, not approval ratings
The actual votes were back in 2016
Anything between then is not a representative.
Mhm, the 3 years after 2016 are more recent than 2016 honey
Of course they are
Because we get this
> "Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/one-year-from-election-trump-trails-biden-but-leads-warren-in-battlegrounds.html
Trump was very much “on the ballot”
...yes
No, he wasn't.
His party was.
Let’s walk through that statement
Nearly 2/3rds
That is catastrophic for trump
Not really, combined with the people who *didn't* vote.
That's a good sign.
2012 also conformed to the generic ballot
That means a full 1/3rd of people who voted for trump in 2016 but voted for a dem in 2018 are definitely voting against him in 2020
Not exactly
That is not a good sign for trump- it’s a sign of...
Many of those haven't made their mind up.
HIS BASE SHRINKING
No, literally that’s what that means
If his base is shrinking, party affiliations would be going the inverse way.
That’s not accurate.
His approval would be falling.
Again, no evidence to support that
A rising approval means there's something wrong with your hypothesis.
No, it really doesn’t
It just means you don’t understand what approval rating is measuring
Well it clearly does, more people approve. And damn approval ratings are good predictors of wins
Approval of Trump, simply put.
Lmao