Message from @Sophie
Discord ID: 679685234056626199
Trump was very much “on the ballot”
...yes
No, he wasn't.
His party was.
Let’s walk through that statement
Nearly 2/3rds
This is what people said in 2010 about Obama.
That is catastrophic for trump
Not really, combined with the people who *didn't* vote.
That's a good sign.
2012 also conformed to the generic ballot
That means a full 1/3rd of people who voted for trump in 2016 but voted for a dem in 2018 are definitely voting against him in 2020
Not exactly
That is not a good sign for trump- it’s a sign of...
Many of those haven't made their mind up.
HIS BASE SHRINKING
No, literally that’s what that means
If his base is shrinking, party affiliations would be going the inverse way.
That’s not accurate.
His approval would be falling.
A rising approval means there's something wrong with your hypothesis.
No, it really doesn’t
It just means you don’t understand what approval rating is measuring
Well it clearly does, more people approve. And damn approval ratings are good predictors of wins
Approval of Trump, simply put.
Lmao
a. Approval ratings are not indicative of wins right now
They've been for ages?
b. His approval rating is super low
Not till about March
>49%
>Super low
...yes
I'm pretty sure all he needs is 45% to win.
44% is a more accurate number
on 538 that's 46% lol
How is "44%" an accurate number?
Aaaand no president has won with under 50%
Yes, we'll see that go above soon.
It's trending upwards, I mean have you seen 538 recently?