Message from @Sophie
Discord ID: 679684706861711428
> 2017 Jan 20-29 89 42 13
Sigh approval ratings are not electoral performance
2020 Jan 16-29 94 42 7
It’s like talking to a child
42 and 42
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Ok let me go over this again, 42% of independents approve of Trump. This was the same in January 2017.
Where is this "lost" support.
Approval is not electoral performance
<:political_thinking:583244726040264704>
The lost support is the landslides against trump in 2017, 2018, 2019
All of which conformed to the generic ballot
But the approval ratings suggest otherwise.
Which is currently dem +6
This is about Trump, not his party.
I’m talking about actual votes, not approval ratings
The actual votes were back in 2016
Anything between then is not a representative.
Of course they are
Because we get this
> "Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/one-year-from-election-trump-trails-biden-but-leads-warren-in-battlegrounds.html
Trump was very much “on the ballot”
...yes
No, he wasn't.
His party was.
Let’s walk through that statement
Nearly 2/3rds
This is what people said in 2010 about Obama.
That is catastrophic for trump
Not really, combined with the people who *didn't* vote.
That's a good sign.
2012 also conformed to the generic ballot
That means a full 1/3rd of people who voted for trump in 2016 but voted for a dem in 2018 are definitely voting against him in 2020
Not exactly
That is not a good sign for trump- it’s a sign of...
Many of those haven't made their mind up.
HIS BASE SHRINKING
No, literally that’s what that means